Month: May 2025

  • The Digital Battlefield: An Analysis of Fake News and Disinformation from Indian Media in India-Pakistan Conflicts

    The Digital Battlefield: An Analysis of Fake News and Disinformation from Indian Media in India-Pakistan Conflicts

    This report provides a comprehensive examination of the pervasive impact of fake news and disinformation originating from Indian media during recent India-Pakistan conflicts, specifically focusing on the May 2025 hostilities and drawing parallels with the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot episode.

    https://youtu.be/63BVQNo4Ly0

    The analysis reveals a systemic proliferation of false narratives, doctored visuals, and AI-generated content, amplified significantly by mainstream media outlets and social media platforms. This phenomenon has profoundly shaped domestic public perception, fueled anxiety, and intensified nationalist sentiment, often to legitimize military actions and consolidate political support. Concurrently, it has led to a severe erosion of journalistic integrity, as commercial pressures and political alignment appear to override ethical reporting. Internationally, these practices have drawn sharp criticism from foreign media and watchdog organizations, highlighting concerns over declining press freedom and India’s global reputation. Furthermore, the report connects these recent events to long-term, sophisticated disinformation campaigns, such as those exposed by the EU DisinfoLab’s “Indian Chronicles,” which systematically targeted international forums to undermine Pakistan, demonstrating a strategic and sustained approach to information warfare.

    Introduction: The Evolving Landscape of Information Warfare

    The geopolitical landscape between India and Pakistan has long been characterized by periods of heightened tension and conflict. Recent hostilities, notably the May 2025 “Operation Sindoor” following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, and the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot episode, underscore that modern warfare extends far beyond traditional military engagements.1 These conflicts have increasingly become crucial battlegrounds for narrative control and perception management, with digital platforms serving as primary arenas for information warfare.1

    In this evolving environment, understanding the nuances of misinformation and disinformation is critical. Misinformation refers to false or inaccurate information that is spread, regardless of intent, while disinformation involves deliberately fabricated or manipulated content intended to deceive and mislead.5 Experts widely consider the proliferation of such false narratives a significant societal concern, capable of fostering political polarization, eroding public trust, and contributing to problematic societal behaviors.5 During periods of armed conflict and heightened tensions, these tactics are strategically leveraged to shape public perception, escalate hostilities, and influence strategic outcomes.1

    The inherent chaos and uncertainty that define a conflict zone, often referred to as the “fog of war,” do not merely permit the existence of disinformation; they actively create an environment where it can thrive. The public’s heightened emotional state, coupled with a vacuum of verified information, makes populations particularly susceptible to manipulated narratives.1 This suggests that disinformation is not simply an incidental byproduct of conflict but a deliberate, sophisticated strategy that capitalizes on and exacerbates the inherent vulnerabilities of information flow during wartime. The absence of transparent, timely, and credible official communication from governments can inadvertently create fertile ground for false narratives, making it harder for citizens and international observers to discern truth. This transforms the “fog of war” from a mere environmental factor into a strategic advantage for those employing information warfare.

    Moreover, the weaponization of misinformation and disinformation during these conflicts is not an isolated phenomenon but is increasingly recognized as an integral component of modern hybrid warfare.1 Indian pro-government influencers, for instance, openly framed their actions as “electronic warfare”.1 This framing elevates the discussion beyond traditional media ethics to a national security concern and a fundamental challenge to international stability. It indicates that states are increasingly integrating information manipulation and narrative control into their comprehensive conflict strategies, blurring the lines between military, political, and informational fronts. This has profound implications for how international conflicts are understood, fought, and resolved, as well as for the stability of global information ecosystems and the effectiveness of traditional diplomatic tools.

    The May 2025 India-Pakistan Conflict: A Case Study in Digital Deception

    The May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict witnessed an unprecedented surge in digital deception, with Indian media playing a significant role in the dissemination of fake news and disinformation.

    Nature and Scale of Disinformation from Indian Media

    Mainstream Indian news channels were observed broadcasting unverified information as “breaking news,” thereby lending false credibility to fabricated stories and amplifying their reach.1 A pervasive tactic involved circulating misleading footage, with many channels airing clips from unrelated conflicts, such as the Israel attacks on Gaza or scenes of destruction in Lebanon, falsely presenting them as evidence of Indian strikes on Pakistani cities.7

    The disinformation ecosystem was rife with specific fabricated claims designed to shape public perception. These included false reports of military victories, doctored videos, and fabricated images of destroyed infrastructure.1 Prominent channels disseminated claims of a coup in Pakistan, alleged attacks on Islamabad, and the Indian INS Vikrant destroying the Karachi port.7 For instance, Times Now Navbharat falsely reported Indian forces entering Pakistan, while Zee News claimed the Indian Army had captured Islamabad and Pakistan had surrendered. Aaj Tak anchors attempted to create panic with false reports of suicide attacks on Indian Army units, a claim the Army later denied as fake. Various channels, including India TV, ABP News, and Zee News, reported the dismissal or arrest of Pakistan Army Chief Asif Munir. India Today falsely claimed an attack on Karachi, and ABP Ananda broadcast an old plane crash clip, misrepresenting it as destruction at the Karachi port. Republic Bangla declared, “Pakistan will be finished today,” following alleged attacks. India News reported Indian forces capturing Lahore, and NDTV caused panic with a false report of Pakistani tanks marching towards Rajasthan, which was later taken down.7 Unverified reports also circulated claiming 12 Pakistani cities were captured and the Pakistani Prime Minister was hiding in a bunker.7

    This widespread dissemination of sensationalized and unverified content by mainstream media reveals a significant phenomenon: the “sensationalism-credibility paradox.” The intense commercial pressure to achieve higher viewership, often measured by Target Rating Points (TRPs), appears to incentivize sensationalism and the rapid dissemination of unverified information, even at the expense of fundamental journalistic integrity and truth.7 This dynamic creates a situation where the very act of seeking perceived credibility through “breaking news” ultimately undermines its actual credibility. The public, constantly exposed to such a diet of sensationalized and unverified content, risks becoming desensitized to factual inaccuracies or less capable of discerning objective information, leading to increased public anxiety and potentially irrational collective behavior.7 This fundamentally compromises the media’s role as a reliable source of information for an informed citizenry.

    The conflict also highlighted an accelerating evolution of digital warfare tactics. While recycled footage from unrelated conflicts and weaponized video game footage were prevalent, the May 2025 hostilities saw a significant leap to sophisticated AI-generated content and deepfakes.1 Pre-existing video game footage was strategically edited with text overlays, patriotic soundtracks, and strategic commentary to create compelling, yet false, battlefield narratives, generating millions of views.1 Fact-checkers noted the laborious process involved in identifying and debunking these, often requiring hours of video game footage review.7 AI-generated content represented a significant evolution, with fabricated stories about Pakistani military figures supported by AI-generated visuals widely circulated in India, and similar AI-generated videos and images falsely depicting Indian military losses.1 Specific instances included two AI-generated fake videos of a Pakistani army spokesperson 7 and highly convincing audio deepfakes of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and the DIG ISPR (Inter-Services Public Relations) of Pakistan, both falsely admitting to the loss of two Pakistani jets.7 The fact that a deepfake’s “lip sync was nearly perfect” 8 indicates a high level of technological sophistication. This progression signifies a rapid and concerning technological advancement in the capabilities of disinformation actors. This suggests an escalating “arms race” in the information domain, where the sophistication and realism of disinformation outpace the current ability of fact-checkers, AI detection tools, and the general public to reliably identify and debunk it. This raises profound concerns about the future of verifiable information in conflict zones and the increasing difficulty of maintaining a shared objective reality. This technological escalation could lead to more severe real-world consequences, as highly convincing fabrications become harder to distinguish from truth, potentially influencing policy decisions and public sentiment on an unprecedented scale.

    Social media platforms, including X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube, served as primary vectors for cross-border information warfare, with X emerging as the main hub for both misinformation and disinformation.1 It is also important to acknowledge that Pakistani media platforms circulated baseless narratives, claiming the Pakistan Air Force shot down Indian drones, denying civilian deaths from retaliatory strikes, and attempting to portray Pakistan as a wounded but heroic victim while denying terror links.3

    Impact on Domestic Public Perception and Tensions

    The pervasive nature of disinformation profoundly shaped public perception and heightened tensions between the two countries.1 It fueled mass anxiety and misinformation, leading even rational individuals to exhibit irrational behavior due to constant exposure to sensationalized and unverified content.7 The disinformation was strategically timed to intensify tensions, legitimize retaliatory military actions, and compel both governments to adopt increasingly belligerent stances.1 Crucially, the online disinformation ecosystem directly fed into real-world escalation, influencing public opinion and diplomatic narratives.1 Furthermore, specific disinformation campaigns aimed to undermine Pakistani morale while inflating Indian victory narratives.8

    A critical observation points to disinformation being used as a primary tool for domestic mobilization and control. Pratik Sinha, co-founder of Alt News, noted that “each country—India and Pakistan—was not directing propaganda outwards, but rather inwards—towards its citizens”.7 He elaborated that “each was also conducting disinformation warfare against its people.” This approach exploited emotionally charged content to drive engagement, escalate nationalist sentiment, and manufacture support for an all-out war.1 This strategic shift from traditional propaganda aimed at external enemies to a more insidious form of internal manipulation suggests that governments and aligned media are actively shaping their own populations’ perceptions not just to counter external narratives, but primarily to consolidate power, legitimize aggressive or retaliatory actions, and suppress internal dissent. This has profound implications for democratic processes, civil liberties, and the very concept of an informed citizenry within these nations, as the state actively engages in a “war of perception” against its own people.

    Fact-Checking Efforts and Government Responses

    Fact-checking agencies such as Alt News and The Quint, along with independent researchers, actively observed and debunked a significant amount of disinformation.1 However, despite these efforts, a substantial amount of misleading content went unchecked, amplifying its reach and impact.1 The Indian government’s Press Information Bureau (PIB) claimed to have countered at least seven major instances of misinformation.1 Notably, the Indian Army had to issue specific statements to debunk false claims broadcast by channels like Aaj Tak.7 The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) also issued an advisory directing media outlets to refrain from using Civil Defence Air Raid Sirens sounds, indicating official recognition of irresponsible media behavior.7

    The efforts of fact-checking organizations, while vital, highlight a significant asymmetry between disinformation generation and debunking. The speed, volume, and technological sophistication of disinformation generation, especially with the advent of AI, far outpace the capacity of human-led fact-checking efforts to verify and debunk.1 This creates an inherent and growing imbalance in the information battle, implying that relying solely on reactive fact-checking is an insufficient strategy to combat widespread disinformation. It underscores the urgent need for scalable, proactive counter-disinformation strategies, including advanced technological solutions for detection and greater platform accountability. More critically, it means that the public is consistently exposed to unverified, false information for longer periods before corrections can be made, leading to the entrenchment of false narratives and a continuous erosion of trust in the information ecosystem.

    Critically, while the Indian government made some efforts to counter misinformation originating from Pakistan, it did little to challenge the divisive campaigns actively waged by mainstream Indian broadcasters.4 This selective engagement with disinformation as a political tool reveals a clear pattern: the government actively combats external disinformation that undermines its narrative, but tolerates, or implicitly supports, internal disinformation that aligns with its political agenda or promotes nationalist sentiment. This approach suggests that the government views disinformation not as an objective threat to the integrity of the information environment, but rather as a malleable tool to be strategically managed for political ends. This selective approach fundamentally undermines the credibility of official fact-checking efforts and sends a clear signal to mainstream media outlets that pro-government disinformation will face little to no consequence. This dynamic further erodes journalistic ethics, exacerbates the spread of biased information, and ultimately compromises the public’s ability to receive accurate and impartial news, which is vital for democratic accountability.

    Table 1: Key Instances of Fake News in May 2025 India-Pakistan Conflict (Indian Media)

    Media Outlet(s)Specific Fake Claim/NarrativeType of DisinformationDebunked By
    Times Now NavbharatIndian forces entered PakistanFabricated claimFact-checkers
    Zee NewsIndian Army captured Islamabad; Pakistan surrenderedFabricated claimFact-checkers
    Aaj TakTerrorists began suicide attack on Indian Army unitsFabricated claimIndian Army 7
    India TV, ABP News, Zee News, etc.Pakistan Army Chief Asif Munir dismissed/arrestedFabricated claimFact-checkers
    India TodayIndia attacked KarachiFabricated claimFact-checkers
    ABP AnandaOld plane crash clip presented as Karachi port destructionRecycled footageFact-checkers 7
    Republic Bangla“Pakistan will be finished today” (following alleged Karachi attack)Fabricated claimFact-checkers
    India NewsIndian forces captured LahoreFabricated claimFact-checkers
    NDTVLarge number of Pakistani tanks marching towards RajasthanFabricated claimNDTV (report later taken down) 7
    Times Now, Republic World, News 9, India TV NewsPakistani pilot capturedFabricated claimFact-checkers 7
    India Today, Deccan ChronicleIndia shot down two Pakistani JF-17s and one F-16 on May 8Unverified reportFact-checkers 7
    Many News Channels12 Pakistani cities captured; Pakistani PM hiding in a bunkerFabricated claimFact-checkers 7
    Almost all TV news channelsClips from Israel/Lebanon attacks presented as Indian strikes on PakistanMisleading footageFact-checkers 7
    India TV channelsClaims of coup in Pakistan; alleged attacks on Islamabad; INS Vikrant destroying Karachi portFabricated claimsFact-checkers 7
    Various (social media)AI-generated fake videos of Pakistani army spokespersonAI-generated contentFact-checkers 7
    The Quint (Abhilash Mallick)Audio deepfakes of PM Shahbaz Sharif and DIG ISPR admitting jet lossesAudio deepfakeFact-checkers 7

    The 2019 Pulwama-Balakot Episode: Precedent of Hyper-Partisan Media

    The 2019 Pulwama-Balakot episode served as a significant precedent for the current state of information warfare, exemplifying a dangerous turn towards militant nationalism and a hyper-partisan media ecosystem in India.2 During this period, television channels aired simulated dogfights and computer-generated imagery (CGI) reconstructions of airstrikes, blurring the lines between reality and fabrication.2 News anchors aggressively shouted down critics and opposition leaders, branding anyone who questioned the official narrative as “anti-national”.2

    Misinformation Tactics and Amplification by Indian Media

    A particularly alarming revelation from this period was the institutional complicity and compromise of fact-checking mechanisms. Three of Facebook’s seven fact-checking partners in India—India Today, Dainik Jagran, and Newsmobile—were found to have circulated misinformation following the Pulwama terror attack.9 This indicates that prominent media institutions, some explicitly tasked with verifying information, actively participated in or failed to adequately correct misinformation. This suggests a profound systemic issue where even entities designed to safeguard information integrity are compromised, either by commercial pressures, political alignment, or a severe lack of rigorous internal standards. This significantly erodes public trust not only in traditional media but also in the very mechanisms established to combat fake news. It also raises concerns about the effectiveness of partnerships between social media platforms and fact-checkers if the partners themselves are part of the problem, potentially influencing the algorithms and content moderation decisions of these platforms.

    Specific instances of misinformation from these outlets included:

    • India Today Group: Used a 2017 video to falsely portray IAF jets inside Pakistani territory during the Balakot airstrike, a video which the channel has not taken down or clarified.9 It employed a photoshopped image to depict a “slain terrorist” of the Pulwama attack, later taking it down with a clarification.9 The channel also carried an ANI report based on a Gilgit activist’s tweet, falsely claiming a Pakistani military officer admitted to the “martyrdom of 200 terrorists,” a claim later debunked.9 Furthermore, it prematurely broadcasted that “300 terrorists were killed in Balakot airstrike” without official government confirmation, a figure the Defense Minister later stated would not be provided.9 Its sister channel, Aaj Tak, used a three-year-old image of a crashed Indian Air Force trainer aircraft to illustrate a report on downed IAF planes, later changing the photograph without clarification.9
    • Dainik Jagran: Also prematurely reported “300 terrorists killed in Balakot” on its front page.9 It published a misleading article about a Gilgit activist’s supposed “proof” of airstrike deaths, which was later vaguely altered but remained factually incorrect.9 The outlet had previous instances of misreporting on sensitive issues.9
    • Newsmobile: Reported the unverified “300 terrorists killed” figure.9 Additionally, its practice of publishing “Astro predictions,” which are considered pseudoscience, raised questions about its credibility as a fact-checking partner.9

    The timing of the Balakot strike and the orchestrated media frenzy around it, taking place just months before the 2019 general election, points to disinformation being used as a strategic political tool in electoral cycles.2 This direct temporal correlation between a significant military event, the subsequent media frenzy, and an impending general election is highly indicative of a strategic political motive. The amplification of hyper-nationalist narratives and the suppression of dissent served to mobilize majoritarian support, delegitimize opposition, and silence dissent.2 This positions disinformation not merely as a reactive response to conflict but as a proactive, calculated political tool used to influence electoral outcomes. It highlights the dangerous intersection of media, military actions, and political campaigns in shaping public opinion and consolidating power. This has profound implications for the integrity of democratic processes, as information manipulation becomes a means to bypass rational discourse and directly sway voter sentiment.

    Sociopolitical Impact and Silencing Dissent

    The orchestrated media strategy successfully mobilized majoritarian support, simultaneously delegitimizing opposition voices and effectively silencing dissent.2 Individuals who dared to question the official narrative, including grieving Kashmiri students, faced harassment, arrest, or were branded as “anti-national”.2 Calls for proof or verification were summarily labeled as treasonous, creating an environment where truth was suppressed in favor of a dominant, state-aligned narrative.2

    Table 2: Key Instances of Misinformation Post-Pulwama Attack (Indian Media)

    Media Outlet(s)Specific Misinformation ClaimType of DisinformationDebunked ByFacebook Fact-Checking Partner Status
    India Today2017 video used to portray IAF jets in Balakot airstrikeRecycled videoAlt News 9Yes 9
    India TodayPhotoshopped image of ‘slain terrorist’ of Pulwama attackPhotoshopped imageAlt News 9Yes 9
    India Today“Bodies shifted from Balakot after IAF airstrike” (based on debunked ANI report)Misleading reportAlt News 9Yes 9
    India Today“300 terrorists killed in Balakot airstrike”Unverified casualty countDefense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman (denied official figure) 9Yes 9
    Aaj Tak (India Today Group)2015 image used as downed IAF plane in Balakot airstrikeOld image re-contextualizedAlt News 9Yes (via group) 9
    Dainik Jagran“300 terrorists killed in Balakot”Unverified casualty countDefense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman (denied official figure) 9Yes 9
    Dainik JagranMisleading report on Gilgit activist’s “proof” of airstrike deathsMisleading reportAlt News 9Yes 9
    Newsmobile“300 terrorists killed” figureUnverified casualty countDefense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman (denied official figure) 9Yes 9
    NewsmobilePublication of “Astro predictions”Pseudoscience as fact-checkAlt News (criticism) 9Yes 9

    International Scrutiny: Foreign Media and Watchdog Perspectives

    The conduct of Indian media during recent conflicts and the broader state of press freedom in India have attracted significant international scrutiny and condemnation.

    Condemnation of Indian Media Practices and Journalistic Integrity

    International fact-checkers and experts have widely condemned the Indian media’s role in the May 2025 conflict, labeling it a “national embarrassment” that severely undermined journalistic integrity and misled citizens during a critical geopolitical moment.7 Rajiv Sharma, Chief Spokesperson at Chandigarh of the Pradesh Congress Committee, publicly stated that “All sensible people in the world have lost faith in the reports of India’s mainstream media,” asserting that such reporting was “making us a laughing stock in the world”.7

    Senior journalist and author Gowhar Geelani went further, terming Indian television media “India’s national embarrassment” and criticizing prime time anchors for spreading propaganda that “would have easily put both (Otto) Dietrich and (Joseph) Goebbels – Hitler’s Nazi Propagandists- to shame”.7 This comparison is a particularly strong and damning critique, suggesting deliberate, state-aligned propaganda on a scale comparable to historical totalitarian regimes. This indicates that the perceived ethical degradation of Indian mainstream media is not merely a domestic issue but has severe international reputational consequences. It implies a significant loss of credibility on the global stage, making it increasingly difficult for India to assert soft power, be seen as a reliable source of information, or engage effectively in international diplomacy where factual integrity is paramount. This erosion of trust can impact diplomatic relations, international partnerships, and global perceptions of India’s democratic health.

    Mohammad Kasim, Professor at the AJK Mass Communication Research Centre, Jamia Millia Islamia, asserted that the news aired on TV channels violated journalistic ethics, becoming a “different genre of entertainment”.7 Concerns were also raised about “careless and irresponsible” reporting on news channels and the widespread posting of unverified information by journalists on social media.7

    The consistent observations of “erosion of journalistic ethics,” “national embarrassment,” and “deteriorating standards of journalism” across multiple sources point to a systemic crisis within the profession.7 Mohammad Kasim’s observation that journalism students face a “hard choice” between upholding ethics and “making ends meet” due to “very few credible media houses available” 7 is particularly telling. This indicates that the problem is not isolated to a few bad actors or specific incidents but represents a systemic crisis affecting the entire profession, including its future practitioners. This points to a long-term degradation of the media’s foundational role as a public watchdog, a source of objective truth, and a pillar of democratic accountability. If the next generation of journalists is compelled to compromise ethical standards for professional survival, the cycle of sensationalism, misinformation, and propaganda will perpetuate and intensify. This further entrenches the “digital battlefield” and makes it increasingly difficult for the public to access impartial information, thereby weakening democratic institutions and informed public discourse.

    Censorship and Press Freedom Concerns

    International watchdogs have been consistently critical of the Indian government’s actions related to press freedom and censorship, particularly during heightened tensions with Pakistan.10

    International rankings reflect these concerns:

    • The Sweden-based V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) Institute, in its 2025 report titled “25 Years of Autocratization – Democracy Trumped?”, stated that India has been “one of the worst autocratizers lately” globally.10
    • The US-based Freedom House, in its 2025 report titled “Freedom in the World 2025,” categorized India as “partly free” in terms of Global Freedom and Internet Freedom.10
    • The Paris-based organization Reporters Without Borders (RSF) ranked India at 151 out of 180 countries in its 2025 World Press Freedom Index.10

    The Indian government has consistently rejected these global reports on media freedom, free speech, religious freedom for minorities, and democracy, describing them as “motivated”.10

    Specific instances of censorship during May 2025 hostilities included X (formerly Twitter) being forced to block over 8,000 accounts in India following executive orders from the government. These demands included blocking access to accounts belonging to international news organizations and prominent X users, often without specified legal violations or justification.10 X complied by withholding accounts in India but publicly disagreed with the demands, deeming them an “unconstitutional attack on free speech”.10 Leading web portals like Maktoob Media and BBC Urdu had their accounts made inoperative.10 The online news portal The Wire was temporarily blocked by order of the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology.6 Individual accounts of senior journalists, including Anuradha Bhasin and Muzamil Jaleel, were made inoperative.10 A YouTube video uploaded by Pravin Sawhney, editor of the defence magazine FORCE, which was critical of the government’s use of airstrikes against Pakistan, was also blocked.10 The X accounts of two Kashmiri news portals, Free Press Kashmir and The Kashmiriyat, were suspended “in response to a legal demand by the government”.10

    This situation reveals a “dual strategy” of information control: countering external narratives while suppressing internal dissent. The Indian government made some efforts to counter misinformation apparently originating in Pakistan but did little to challenge the divisive campaigns being waged by mainstream Indian broadcasters.4 Simultaneously, it aggressively blocked independent media and critical voices. This indicates that the government’s concern is not about “fake news” per se, but about who is disseminating it and what narrative it supports. The government’s perceived “panic mode” when blocking credible accounts suggests a fear of accurate, independent reporting more than external propaganda.10 This reveals a sophisticated, two-pronged approach to information control: delegitimizing external narratives that challenge the state’s position while aggressively suppressing internal dissent and independent reporting that might expose uncomfortable truths or offer alternative perspectives. This strategy aims to create a tightly controlled, homogenous information environment that overwhelmingly favors the government’s agenda, thereby fundamentally undermining democratic norms, the public’s right to diverse information, and the role of a free press as a check on power.

    Critics noted that “sane voices and professional journalists who sift fact from fiction” are being banned, while those who “sensationalise and further amplify the fake narratives during sensitive times are enjoying the government’s patronage”.10 This highlights a “rewarding disinformation” phenomenon, where adherence to factual reporting leads to suppression, while the promotion of sensationalism and propaganda is explicitly or implicitly rewarded with “government’s patronage.” This creates a fundamentally distorted media landscape where journalistic integrity is actively disincentivized. It transforms media from a public service and a pillar of democracy into a state-aligned propaganda arm, with severe long-term consequences for press freedom, democratic accountability, and the very concept of objective truth within the nation. Such a system encourages a race to the bottom in terms of journalistic standards, as outlets compete for state favor by amplifying sensationalist and often false narratives. The Ministry of Defence also directed all media channels, digital platforms, and individuals to “refrain from live coverage or real-time reporting of defence operations and movement of security forces”.10 Human Rights Watch observed that Indian officials repressed dissent and targeted peaceful criticism amidst hate speech and misinformation.4

    Table 3: International Watchdog Assessments of Indian Press Freedom (2025)

    OrganizationReport/Index (Year)Key Finding/RankingIndian Government’s Stance
    V-Dem Institute“25 Years of Autocratization – Democracy Trumped?” (2025)“One of the worst autocratizers lately” globallyRejected as “motivated” 10
    Freedom House“Freedom in the World 2025”“Partly free” (Global Freedom: 63/100, Internet Freedom: 50/100)Rejected as “motivated” 10
    Reporters Without Borders (RSF)World Press Freedom Index (2025)Ranked 151 out of 180 countriesRejected as “motivated” 10

    The “Indian Chronicles”: A Deeper Dive into Long-Term Disinformation Campaigns

    The recent instances of disinformation from Indian media during conflicts are not isolated events but are part of a broader, more sophisticated pattern of long-term information operations, as extensively documented by the EU DisinfoLab’s “Indian Chronicles” report. This investigation provides crucial context for understanding the strategic depth of such campaigns.

    Overview of EU DisinfoLab’s Findings (Scale, Tactics, Longevity)

    In 2019, the EU DisinfoLab initially uncovered a vast network of 265 coordinated fake local media outlets operating in 65 countries, serving Indian interests.11 A subsequent, more in-depth investigation revealed the true scale: this operation had been active for over 15 years, spanning 115 countries, and involved more than 750 phony media houses, reconstituted NGOs, and imitated UN-accredited personalities.13 The operation was attributed to the New-Delhi based Srivastava Group.11

    The “Indian Chronicles” employed an “astounding level of fakery”.11 This included resurrecting dead media outlets, defunct think-tanks, and inactive NGOs, and even impersonating deceased individuals.11 The actors behind the operation hijacked names, tried to impersonate legitimate media and press agencies such as the EU Observer, The Economist, and Voice of America, and even used the letterhead of the European Parliament.11 They registered websites under avatars with fake phone numbers and provided fake addresses.11

    This scale and sophistication point to a highly organized, state-aligned (via the Srivastava Group) “deep state” level of information warfare. The “astounding level of fakery” that allowed it to persist for so long is a key indicator of its strategic depth.11 This reveals a systemic, long-term, and globally coordinated effort to manipulate international discourse, not just domestic public opinion. It suggests that geopolitical rivalries are increasingly fought through covert information operations designed to undermine a rival’s international standing, influence policy decisions in third countries, and shape global narratives to one’s strategic advantage. This has profound implications for international relations, trust between nations, and the integrity of global information flows, indicating a new frontier in statecraft where information manipulation is a primary weapon.

    The network also created informal groups within the European Parliament, namely the “South Asia Peace Forum,” the “Baloch Forum,” and “Friends of Gilgit-Baltistan,” to organize press conferences and events aimed at influencing MEPs.11 Organizations linked to the network, such as the Women’s Economic and Social Think-Tank (WESTT), drafted and suggested parliamentary questions to the European Commission and articles for fake EU magazines like EP Today (later EU Chronicle), serving as a “honeypot” to attract MEPs into a pro-India and anti-Pakistan discourse.11 This strategic use of legitimate humanitarian causes for geopolitical gain is a deeply concerning manipulation. By associating a disinformation campaign with universally accepted human rights issues, the operation gained a veneer of legitimacy and moral authority, making it more difficult for targets to dismiss the content as mere propaganda.11 This not only undermines the credibility of genuine human rights advocacy and civil society movements but also makes it significantly harder for policymakers, international bodies, and the public to discern authentic calls for justice from state-sponsored propaganda. This could lead to increased skepticism towards legitimate human rights reports and a chilling effect on genuine advocacy, as such efforts might be viewed with suspicion due to their potential for exploitation.

    The operation’s activities extended across multiple continents, including the creation of obscure companies in Canada, fake media targeting South-Asian populations in Canada, involvement in demonstrations in New York, and the creation of fake media in Bangladesh and the Maldives, as well as impersonating a number of African human rights NGOs and creating lobbying agencies targeting EU institutions.11 The EU DisinfoLab classified the impact of this 15-year-old disinformation campaign as Category 6, the highest classification, indicating that its agenda had drawn out responses from policymakers or incited hostility aimed at the target.14 The investigation heavily relied on the analysis of websites and domain names, particularly historical WHOIS data, which proved critical due to the actors’ earlier lack of concern for privacy.14

    Connection to Anti-Pakistan and Kashmir Narratives

    The content disseminated by this vast network was explicitly designed “primarily to undermine Pakistan”.11 The operation actively sponsored trips of MEPs to visit Kashmir and facilitated meetings with India’s Prime Minister, all with the intent of promoting a pro-India and anti-Pakistan discourse within international forums.11 This demonstrates a clear, long-term strategic objective. This illustrates how sophisticated disinformation campaigns are an integral and sustained component of modern geopolitical competition. They aim to erode a rival’s international standing, influence policy decisions in third countries (e.g., EU member states), and shape global narratives to one’s strategic advantage. This moves beyond merely influencing public opinion within a conflict zone to directly influencing international policy and diplomatic relations, with potential long-term impacts on a nation’s foreign policy objectives and its global reputation.

    Table 4: Overview of EU DisinfoLab’s “Indian Chronicles” Findings

    AspectDescriptionRelevant Snippet(s)
    ScaleActive for over 15 years (began 2006); operated in 115 countries; involved >750 phony media houses, reconstituted NGOs, imitated UN-accredited personalities.11
    AttributionAttributed to the New-Delhi based Srivastava Group.11
    TacticsResurrected dead media, think-tanks, NGOs, and people; impersonated legitimate media (EU Observer, The Economist, VOA); used European Parliament letterhead; registered fake domains/addresses; created informal EU Parliament groups (South Asia Peace Forum, Baloch Forum, Friends of Gilgit-Baltistan); drafted parliamentary questions/articles for fake EU magazines (EP Today/EU Chronicle); used minority/women’s rights as entry points; created obscure companies globally.11
    Primary ObjectivePrimarily to undermine Pakistan; promote pro-India and anti-Pakistan discourse in international forums (EU, UN).11
    Impact ClassificationCategory 6 (highest): agenda drew responses from policymakers or incited hostility.14
    MethodologyHeavily relied on analysis of websites and domain names, particularly historical WHOIS data.14
    Global ReachActivities across multiple continents including Canada, New York, Bangladesh, Maldives, Africa (impersonating human rights NGOs, lobbying EU institutions).11

    Conclusion

    The analysis of fake news and disinformation from Indian media during the recent May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, set against the backdrop of the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot episode and long-term campaigns like the “Indian Chronicles,” reveals a deeply concerning and systemic landscape of information manipulation. The “fog of war” is not merely a condition but a strategic asset, exploited to propagate false narratives that shape public perception, escalate tensions, and legitimize military actions.

    During the May 2025 conflict, mainstream Indian media outlets actively amplified unverified information, doctored visuals, and sophisticated AI-generated content, including deepfakes. This behavior highlights a “sensationalism-credibility paradox,” where commercial pressures for viewership appear to override journalistic ethics, leading to a severe erosion of media integrity and fostering public anxiety. The accelerating evolution of digital warfare tactics, particularly with AI and deepfakes, signifies an escalating “arms race” in the information domain, where the speed and realism of disinformation outpace current debunking capabilities, posing a profound challenge to the future of verifiable information. Furthermore, the primary target of much of this disinformation appears to be domestic populations, serving as a tool for internal mobilization, consolidation of power, and suppression of dissent.

    The 2019 Pulwama-Balakot episode demonstrated that these patterns are not new, revealing institutional complicity in the spread of misinformation, even by organizations designated as fact-checking partners. This historical context underscores how disinformation is strategically deployed as a political tool, particularly around electoral cycles, to sway public opinion and achieve political objectives.

    Internationally, the conduct of Indian media has drawn widespread condemnation from foreign media and watchdog organizations, who have labeled it a “national embarrassment” and drawn parallels to historical propaganda. This has resulted in significant international reputational damage and a loss of global trust. The systemic crisis in journalistic ethics, exacerbated by a “rewarding disinformation” phenomenon where factual reporting is suppressed while sensationalism is rewarded, threatens the future of independent journalism and democratic accountability. The Indian government’s “dual strategy” of actively countering external misinformation while tacitly allowing or even suppressing internal dissent and independent reporting further compounds these concerns, suggesting that information control is viewed as a political instrument rather than a commitment to factual integrity.

    The comprehensive findings of the EU DisinfoLab’s “Indian Chronicles” report underscore the long-term, globally orchestrated nature of such disinformation campaigns. This operation, spanning over 15 years and multiple continents, systematically aimed to undermine Pakistan’s international standing and influence global policy through an “astounding level of fakery,” including the cynical exploitation of legitimate humanitarian causes. This reveals disinformation as a pervasive tool for geopolitical delegitimization, impacting international relations and the integrity of global information flows.

    In conclusion, the proliferation of fake news and disinformation from Indian media during India-Pakistan conflicts is a multifaceted issue with profound implications. It reflects a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, domestic political objectives, evolving technological capabilities, and a deteriorating media ethics landscape. Addressing this challenge requires not only enhanced fact-checking and media literacy initiatives but also a fundamental re-evaluation of journalistic responsibilities, governmental transparency, and international collaboration to safeguard information integrity in an increasingly digital and polarized world.

    During recent India-Pakistan conflicts, particularly the May 2025 hostilities and the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot episode, fake news and disinformation from Indian media have had a significant and multifaceted impact.

    How Fake News Impacts:

    The proliferation of fake news and disinformation has profoundly shaped public perception, fueled mass anxiety, and intensified nationalist sentiment within India.1 This content is strategically leveraged to legitimize military actions, consolidate political support, and compel governments to adopt more belligerent stances.1 Experts consider misinformation a significant societal concern, capable of fostering political polarization, eroding public trust, and contributing to problematic societal behaviors.4 During conflict, the “fog of war” creates an environment where false narratives thrive, making populations susceptible to manipulation.1 Indian pro-government influencers have openly framed their actions as “electronic warfare,” indicating that information manipulation is an integral part of modern hybrid warfare.1 This disinformation is often directed inwards, towards a country’s own citizens, to drive engagement and manufacture support for conflict.3

    How Many Fake News Items Were Published/Broadcast:

    While a precise total number is not available, the volume was substantial, with Indian mainstream media “flooding the public with fake news, doctored visuals, and sensationalist coverage”.3 Fact-checking agencies like Alt News and The Quint actively observed and debunked a significant amount of this content.1

    Specific examples from the May 2025 conflict include:

    • Misleading Footage: Almost all Indian TV news channels circulated misleading footage, airing clips from unrelated conflicts (e.g., Israel attacks on Gaza, destruction in Lebanon) and falsely presenting them as evidence of Indian strikes on Pakistani cities.3 Old video game footage was also weaponized and edited with patriotic soundtracks to create false battlefield narratives.1
    • Fabricated Claims:
      • Times Now Navbharat falsely reported Indian forces entering Pakistan.3
      • Zee News claimed the Indian Army captured Islamabad and Pakistan surrendered.3
      • Aaj Tak falsely reported suicide attacks on Indian Army units, a claim the Army later denied.3
      • Several channels (India TV, ABP News, Zee News) reported the dismissal or arrest of Pakistan Army Chief Asif Munir.3
      • India Today falsely claimed an attack on Karachi, while ABP Ananda used an old plane crash clip to depict Karachi port destruction.3
      • India News reported Indian forces capturing Lahore.3
      • NDTV falsely reported Pakistani tanks marching towards Rajasthan, later taking the report down.3
      • Claims of 12 Pakistani cities captured and the Pakistani Prime Minister hiding in a bunker also circulated.3
    • AI-Generated Content: The conflict saw a significant rise in sophisticated AI-generated content and deepfakes. This included two AI-generated fake videos of a Pakistani army spokesperson and highly convincing audio deepfakes of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and the DIG ISPR, falsely admitting to jet losses.1 An AI-generated image falsely showed Rawalpindi Stadium in ruins, gaining millions of views.6

    During the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot episode, misinformation tactics included:

    • Recycled Videos/Photoshopped Images: India Today used a 2017 video to falsely portray IAF jets inside Pakistani territory during the Balakot airstrike and a photoshopped image to depict a “slain terrorist”.7 Aaj Tak used a three-year-old image of a crashed Indian Air Force trainer aircraft to illustrate a report on downed IAF planes.7
    • Unverified Casualty Counts: India Today, Dainik Jagran, and Newsmobile prematurely reported “300 terrorists killed in Balakot airstrike” without official government confirmation.7

    Impact on World Journalism:

    The conduct of Indian media has been widely condemned by international fact-checkers and experts, who labeled it a “national embarrassment” that severely undermined journalistic integrity and misled citizens.3 Critics noted a “sensationalism-credibility paradox,” where commercial pressures for viewership (TRPs) appeared to incentivize sensationalism over factual reporting.3 Senior journalist Gowhar Geelani compared Indian television media’s propaganda to that of “Hitler’s Nazi Propagandists”.3 Mohammad Kasim, a professor of Mass Communication, stated that Indian news has become a “different genre of entertainment” and that mainstream outlets often disregard basic journalistic ethics.3 This has led to a severe erosion of trust in Indian media among international observers.5

    How Foreign Media and Watchdogs See It (with data):

    International watchdogs have consistently criticized the Indian government’s actions related to press freedom and censorship, particularly during heightened tensions.3

    • V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) Institute (Sweden-based): In its 2025 report, “25 Years of Autocratization – Democracy Trumped?”, it stated that India has been “one of the worst autocratizers lately” globally.3
    • Freedom House (US-based): In its 2025 report, “Freedom in the World 2025,” it categorized India as “partly free” in terms of Global Freedom (63/100) and Internet Freedom (50/100).3
    • Reporters Without Borders (RSF) (Paris-based): Ranked India at 151 out of 180 countries in its 2025 World Press Freedom Index.3

    The Indian government has consistently rejected these global reports, describing them as “motivated”.3

    Instances of censorship and suppression of independent media during the May 2025 hostilities further highlight these concerns:

    • X (formerly Twitter) was forced to block over 8,000 accounts in India, including those of international news organizations and prominent users, often without specified legal violations.3
    • Leading web portals like Maktoob Media and BBC Urdu had their accounts made inoperative.3
    • The online news portal The Wire was temporarily blocked.5
    • Individual accounts of senior journalists were made inoperative.3
    • A YouTube video critical of the government’s airstrikes was blocked.3
    • Human Rights Watch observed that Indian officials repressed dissent and targeted peaceful criticism amidst hate speech and misinformation.9 They noted that while the Indian government made efforts to counter misinformation from Pakistan, it did little to challenge divisive campaigns by mainstream Indian broadcasters.9 Critics argue that “sane voices and professional journalists who sift fact from fiction” are being banned, while those who “sensationalise and further amplify the fake narratives… are enjoying the government’s patronage”.8

    Connection to Old EU Reports (Indian Chronicles):

    The recent instances of disinformation are not isolated but are part of a broader, long-term pattern documented by the EU DisinfoLab’s “Indian Chronicles” report.5

    • Scale and Longevity: The investigation uncovered a vast network active for over 15 years (beginning in 2006), spanning 115 countries, involving more than 750 phony media houses, reconstituted NGOs, and imitated UN-accredited personalities.10
    • Attribution: The operation was attributed to the New-Delhi based Srivastava Group.10
    • Tactics: It involved an “astounding level of fakery,” including resurrecting dead media outlets, defunct think-tanks, and inactive NGOs, and even impersonating deceased individuals.10 They hijacked names, impersonated legitimate media (e.g., EU Observer, The Economist), and used European Parliament letterhead.10 The network created informal groups within the European Parliament to influence MEPs and used humanitarian causes like minority rights as entry points for pro-India, anti-Pakistan discourse.10
    • Primary Objective: The content disseminated was explicitly designed “primarily to undermine Pakistan”.10 The operation sponsored trips of MEPs to Kashmir and facilitated meetings with India’s Prime Minister to promote a pro-India and anti-Pakistan narrative in international forums.10
    • Impact Classification: The EU DisinfoLab classified the impact of this 15-year-old disinformation campaign as Category 6, the highest classification, indicating that its agenda had drawn responses from policymakers or incited hostility aimed at the target.14

    This demonstrates a strategic and sustained approach to information warfare, moving beyond influencing domestic public opinion to directly impacting international policy and diplomatic relations.10

    Works cited

    1. Inside the Misinformation and Disinformation War Between India …, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://www.csohate.org/2025/05/16/india-pakistan-digital-war/
    2. Dehumanisation in a Time of War Hysteria | The India Forum, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://www.theindiaforum.in/society/dehumanisation-time-war-hysteria
    3. Pak’s Disinformation Campaign Continues, How Their Media Is Twisting Truth – NDTV, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/from-shooting-down-drones-to-civilian-deaths-how-pakistani-media-is-twisting-truth-operation-sindoor-8370085
    4. Indian Officials Repress Dissent Following India-Pakistan Hostilities …, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/05/21/indian-officials-repress-dissent-following-india-pakistan-hostilities
    5. Disagreement as a way to study misinformation and its effects, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/disagreement-as-a-way-to-study-misinformation-and-its-effects/
    6. From journalism to jingoism: For the Indian media, truth be damned – Prism – DAWN.COM, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://www.dawn.com/news/1909699
    7. Indian Media Fuels Panic with Disinformation | Al Jazeera Media Institute, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://institute.aljazeera.net/en/ajr/article/indian-media-fuels-panic-disinformation
    8. Misinformation war rages online amid India-Pakistan tensions | RNZ News, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/562093/misinformation-war-rages-online-amid-india-pakistan-tensions
    9. 3 out of Facebook’s 7 fact-checking partners have shared … – Alt News, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://www.altnews.in/3-out-of-facebooks-7-fact-checking-partners-have-shared-misinformation-post-pulwama/
    10. Censorship Surge in India Undermines Independent Journalism – Frontline – The Hindu, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://frontline.thehindu.com/news/india-pakistan-tensions-censorship-press-freedom-social-media-ban/article69560634.ece
    11. Indian Chronicles – EU DisinfoLab, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://www.disinfo.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Indian-chronicles_FULLREPORT.pdf
    12. subsequent investigation: deep dive into a 15-year operation targeting the EU and UN to serve Indian interests – Princeton Dataspace, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://dataspace.princeton.edu/handle/88435/dsp01b8515r462
    13. Issue Brief on “India’s Disinformation Network: A Challenge to Global Information Integrity”, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://issi.org.pk/issue-brief-on-indias-disinformation-network-a-challenge-to-global-information-integrity/

    EU DisinfoLab Uses Historical WHOIS Data to Cast a Light on Indian Chronicles, accessed on May 25, 2025, https://main.whoisxmlapi.com/success-stories/eu-disinfolab-uses-historical-whois-data-to-cast-a-light-on-indian-chronicles


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  • The Indispensable Role of International Students in Australia’s Post-COVID Economic Recovery and Labor Market Stability

    The Indispensable Role of International Students in Australia’s Post-COVID Economic Recovery and Labor Market Stability

    Australia’s international education sector proved instrumental in the nation’s post-COVID-19 economic recovery, acting as a significant counter-recessionary force. Following a sharp decline during border closures, the sector experienced a robust rebound, contributing tens of billions of dollars to the economy and driving a substantial portion of national GDP growth. International students, through their tuition fees and extensive living expenditures, have consistently ranked among Australia’s top exports. Beyond this direct financial injection, their crucial role in alleviating widespread labor shortages across various sectors, particularly in casual and entry-level positions, further underscored their economic indispensability. Despite these undeniable economic benefits, public discourse, often shaped by media narratives, frequently misrepresents international students, attributing to them issues such as the housing crisis or job competition, which are largely unsupported by empirical evidence. This report provides a factual account of their contributions and addresses these prevailing misconceptions.

    The Indispensable Role of International Students in Australia’s Economy

    International students are not just visitors; they are a pivotal force in Australia’s economic vitality, especially highlighted in the post-COVID recovery. Their contributions extend far beyond campus, shaping the nation’s prosperity and resilience.

    $51.03B
    Education Export Value (FY 2023-24)

    A new peak, underscoring massive financial injection.

    0.8%
    Contribution to GDP Growth (2023)

    Driving half of Australia’s economic expansion in the year.

    Key Role
    In Averting Deeper Recession

    “Almost singlehandedly kept us out of recession” – Universities Australia (2023).

    An Economic Powerhouse

    The international education sector has consistently been one of Australia’s top export earners, demonstrating robust growth and resilience. Its financial impact is a cornerstone of the national economy.

    Education Export Income Trend

    The sector saw a dip during COVID but rebounded strongly, reaching new heights.

    Top Export Earner (FY 2023-24)

    International education stands tall among Australia’s primary exports.

    Beyond Tuition: A Multiplier Effect

    The economic contribution of international students extends far beyond their tuition fees. Their spending on goods, services, and living expenses creates a significant ripple effect across the Australian economy.

    Student Expenditure Breakdown (FY 2023-24)

    A significant portion of student spending directly supports local businesses.

    Fueling the Economy Through Work

    ~25%

    Of Total Student Expenditure is Self-Funded

    This amounts to approximately $13 BILLION (FY 2023-24) earned through local employment, directly reinvested into the Australian economy. This demonstrates a reinforcing cycle of economic activity.

    Backbone of the Workforce

    Post-COVID, Australia faced severe labor shortages. International students proved crucial in filling these gaps, particularly in essential services and the “odd job market,” stabilizing industries and supporting economic continuity.

    250,000

    Australian Jobs Supported in 2023

    This is more than double the jobs in the iron ore, coal, and gas mining sectors combined, highlighting the sector’s vast employment footprint.

    🧑‍🎓 > ⛏️

    Key Policy Response: March 2020

    Recognizing their vital role, the government temporarily relaxed work hour limits for students in essential services like aged care and supermarkets to address critical staff shortages during the pandemic’s peak.

    Critical Support Across Key Sectors

    International students provided indispensable labor in various sectors facing acute shortages:

    🍽️

    Hospitality & Retail

    Filled part-time, casual roles; vital for business operations.

    👵🏽

    Aged Care

    Ensured continuity of care during staff shortages.

    👶

    Childcare

    Provided crucial support for childcare services.

    ✈️

    Tourism

    Underpinned workforce needs as the sector recovered.

    The Disconnect: Narratives vs. Reality

    Despite their significant economic contributions, international students are often unfairly blamed in media and public discourse for broader societal issues. This section contrasts common narratives with evidence-based realities.

    Narrative: “Students Cause Housing Crisis”

    Often blamed for rising rents and housing shortages.


    Reality:

    • Constitute only 6% of renters nationally.
    • Nearly 40% live in dedicated student housing.
    • Research (UniSA 2024) found no statistical link to the rental crisis.
    • An increase of 10,000 students correlated with a $1 decrease in weekly rents (other factors controlled).

    Narrative: “Students Take Aussie Jobs”

    Concerns raised about job competition and displacing domestic workers.


    Reality:

    • Australia faced severe labor shortages post-COVID (2nd worst in developed world).
    • Students fill critical gaps, especially in hospitality, retail, aged care.
    • 85% of businesses couldn’t operate at full capacity due to shortages.
    • Government actively encouraged student return to address workforce shortages.

    Challenging Misrepresentation

    “Media discourses tend to ‘commodify’ international students, valuing them for fees while marginalizing them… Students are often characterized as ‘temporary, expendable, or invisible’.” (Academic Research)

    Initiatives like the film “Phoenix” see students reclaiming their narratives, offering lived experiences to challenge one-dimensional portrayals and foster recognition as integral community members.

    Valuing Our Vital Contributors

    The evidence is clear: international students are indispensable to Australia’s economic prosperity and social fabric. Their contributions as a major export earner, spenders in the local economy, and vital members of the workforce helped Australia navigate the post-COVID recovery and avoid a deeper recession.

    It is crucial for public discourse and policy to reflect these realities, moving beyond misinformed narratives. A welcoming and supportive environment for international students is not just a matter of fairness; it’s an investment in Australia’s ongoing economic strength and global competitiveness.

    Infographic based on data from various Australian economic and educational reports.

    1. Introduction: Australia’s Economic Resilience in the Wake of COVID-19

    The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic presented Australia with an unprecedented economic challenge. The nation experienced a significant downturn, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declining by a record 7.0% in the June quarter of 2020, leading to a 1.1% fall for the year to December 2020.1 This marked the largest quarterly contraction on record, unequivocally pushing the Australian economy into recession and highlighting the severity of the initial economic impact.1 This critical context establishes the economic vulnerability Australia faced, providing the baseline against which the subsequent recovery and the role of key sectors can be measured.

    Sectors with a high dependence on the international movement of people, such as tourism, education, and airlines, were particularly affected by the stringent lockdowns, quarantine measures, and travel restrictions implemented to protect public health and prevent the spread of COVID-19.1 The severe curtailment of international travel and a significant reduction in net overseas migration were explicitly identified as key sources of economic perturbation.2 These restrictions prevented many businesses from operating at full capacity and forced numerous workers to cease employment or transition to remote work.2

    In response to these strong negative economic consequences, both federal and state governments instituted various stimulus measures. These actions were designed to support businesses and maintain household finances, aiming to bolster the economy’s resilience against the pandemic’s shocks.1 Australia’s economic resilience is inherently tied to the performance of its major export industries. While traditional exports like mining (iron ore, coal) demonstrated relative stability and continued to thrive amidst the disruptions 1, the services sector, particularly international education, faced profound disruption due to closed borders and halted travel.1 The subsequent rebound and recovery of these severely affected sectors, especially international education, were therefore critical for the broader national economic recovery and for averting a deeper or more prolonged recession. The speed and magnitude of their recovery directly influenced the overall pace and strength of Australia’s economic rebound.

    2. International Education: A Cornerstone of Australia’s Economy

    International education has a long-standing and profound significance as a major contributor to Australia’s economy. Its historical trajectory demonstrates a consistently growing industry, rather than a transient phenomenon. As early as 2007, education services exports had already grown at an average annual rate of approximately 14% in volume terms since 1982, displacing leisure travel services as Australia’s largest service export.6 By 2007, it had become Australia’s third largest export overall, behind only coal and iron ore, underscoring its established and substantial economic footprint.6

    A critical aspect of this economic contribution is its onshore delivery. The vast majority of this export value – approximately 97% of $12.6 billion in 2007 – was generated through foreign students studying within Australia.6 This highlights that the economic activity is primarily injected directly into the Australian economy, stimulating local businesses and employment across various sectors, rather than being an offshore service.

    Post-COVID-19 Rebound and Current Economic Standing

    The COVID-19 pandemic and associated border closures severely impacted the international education sector. Its value approximately halved from $40.3 billion in 2019 to $22.5 billion in 2021.4 This dramatic reduction sent significant economic shockwaves through universities, which had developed a substantial reliance on international student fees.4

    However, the sector demonstrated remarkable resilience and a robust rebound following the reopening of borders. In 2022, international education added over $29 billion to the economy, with the majority of this contribution coming from onshore students.7 This recovery continued strongly, with the sector contributing $48 billion to the economy in 2023, positioning it as the second biggest export behind mining.10 By the financial year 2023-24, the value of education as an export reached an all-time peak of $51.032 billion.9 This rapid and substantial recovery underscores its vital role in the national economic rebound.

    The significance of this rebound extends beyond mere recovery; it became a critical driving force for Australia’s overall economic growth. Universities Australia explicitly states that international education “drove half of Australia’s economic growth in 2023,” contributing 0.8% of the total 1.5% GDP increase.10 Furthermore, it is asserted that the sector “almost singlehandedly kept us out of recession” in 2023.15 These strong statements indicate a direct causal link between the sector’s performance and the avoidance of a deeper or prolonged economic downturn.

    It is worth noting that the ranking of international education among Australia’s top exports can fluctuate. While a 2007 report identified it as the third largest export 6, more recent data from calendar year 2024 and financial year 2023/24 places it as the fourth largest export.9 Conversely, 2023 data indicated it was the second biggest export behind mining.10 These variations are not contradictory but reflect the dynamic nature of Australia’s export landscape, influenced by fluctuating commodity prices (iron ore, coal, natural gas) and the specific reporting period (calendar vs. financial year). The consistent theme across all available data is that international education remains unequivocally among Australia’s top few exports (top 2, 3, or 4), generating tens of billions of dollars annually, which strongly affirms its profound and enduring economic importance as a cornerstone of the Australian economy.

    Breakdown of International Student Expenditure

    The economic contribution of international students extends significantly beyond tuition fees, demonstrating a broad economic ripple effect. As early as 2007, tuition fees accounted for only 39% of overseas student expenditure, with the substantial balance (61%) representing spending on a wide array of goods and services such as food, accommodation, transport, and entertainment.6 This pattern of broad economic stimulation continued post-COVID. In 2020, over half of the export income generated from international students came from their spending on goods and services, with 45% attributable to tuition fees.8 More recently, in financial year 2023-24, $30.2 billion was generated from goods and services expenditure, compared to $20.6 billion from tuition fees.13 This substantial spending on daily necessities and leisure activities directly injects capital into a much wider array of local businesses, creating a multiplier effect where money circulates throughout the economy. For example, student spending at a local cafe supports the cafe owner, their staff (baristas, cooks), their suppliers (food producers, transport companies), and so on. This broad economic circulation is crucial for understanding how the sector contributed to overall national recovery and resilience, far beyond just university budgets.

    3. International Students: Catalysts for Post-COVID Economic Recovery and Labor Market Stability

    Australia’s economy was undeniably pushed into recession by the COVID-19 pandemic, marked by a significant decline in GDP.1 The robust and rapid rebound of the international education sector was instrumental in mitigating this economic impact and driving the subsequent recovery. Universities Australia explicitly highlights that international students “drove half of Australia’s economic growth last year” (referring to 2023), contributing 0.8% to the overall 1.5% GDP increase.10 This substantial contribution led to claims that the sector “almost singlehandedly kept us out of recession” in 2023.15 Such strong causal language underscores the critical role international education played in preventing a deeper or more prolonged economic downturn.

    Government policies actively facilitated the return of international students, demonstrating a clear recognition of their economic and labor market value. The Morrison Government offered visa rebates to international students who returned in early 2022, and the Albanese Government prioritized clearing visa backlogs to accelerate their return.10 Both administrations explicitly encouraged the return of international students to “address critical workforce shortages and boost the economy”.10

    Addressing Critical Workforce Shortages (“Odd Job Market”)

    Post-COVID, Australia faced widespread and severe labor shortages, which were ranked as the second most severe in the developed world.17 This critical issue resulted in approximately 85% of businesses being unable to operate at full capacity, particularly impacting sectors like restaurants, cafes, and shopping malls.17 National shortages were identified in at least 332 occupations, including critical areas such as healthcare (with a projected need for 250,000 additional skilled healthcare workers by 2027 and a shortage of 70,000 nurses by 2035) and skilled trades like electricians and engineers.17

    International students played a vital and flexible role in filling these gaps, especially in sectors heavily reliant on casual and part-time labor, often referred to as the “odd job market.” They are described as “critical” for supporting roles in tourism, hospitality, retail, aged care, and childcare.16 Many recent migrants, including international students and working holidaymakers, frequently take “lower-wage jobs” 17, which are essential for the smooth functioning of these industries. The presence of international students in these roles is not merely about them finding employment; it reflects their strategic utility during a crisis.

    During the immediate crisis phase of the pandemic, the Australian government recognized this critical need. In March 2020, temporary changes were announced to relax work hour limits for international students in essential services like aged care and major supermarkets, specifically to address emerging staff shortages as other workers took leave or quarantined.19 This policy adjustment directly enabled students to significantly increase their labor market participation in areas of acute demand. This governmental action highlights a deliberate policy choice, indicating that international students were not merely a passive workforce but an active solution deployed by the government to mitigate economic disruption. This points to a deeper role for international students as economic shock absorbers. When the domestic workforce faced unprecedented disruption (due to illness, quarantine, or border closures), international students provided a flexible, responsive, and readily available labor pool. Their presence helped maintain essential services (such as aged care and supermarkets) and operational capacity in casual-heavy industries (like hospitality and retail), directly contributing to national resilience and preventing a more severe economic collapse. This demonstrates their essential function in maintaining the continuity of vital services and business operations during a crisis, thereby stabilizing the workforce.

    Industry bodies such as the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and National Retail Association (NRA) have vocally highlighted the indispensable role of international students for the $430 billion retail sector, not only as consumers but also as workers. They emphasize students’ crucial contribution to “part-time and casual roles” and their importance in solving the “retail labour crisis,” citing high job vacancies (25,600 nationally).18 The international education sector, through both direct and indirect employment, supported approximately 250,000 Australians in 2023. This figure is more than double the number employed in the iron ore, coal, and gas mining sectors combined 16, underscoring the sector’s substantial job creation capacity across the broader economy.

    The economic contribution of international students is multifaceted. They serve as a major export industry through their tuition fees and living expenses 10, and simultaneously constitute a significant component of the labor force, particularly in casual and lower-wage jobs.16 A crucial connection between these two contributions is revealed by the ABS, which estimates that around a quarter of the total expenditure (approximately $13 billion in the 2023-24 financial year) is funded by international students working in Australia for Australian employers.12 This means that a substantial portion of the export income attributed to international students is directly generated from their work within Australia. Their labor market participation directly enhances their overall export value, creating a reinforcing cycle of economic benefit. This integrated contribution makes international students uniquely valuable to the Australian economy, providing both a substantial foreign income stream (boosting national accounts) and a flexible, responsive workforce that can adapt to fluctuating labor demands, especially in the “odd job market” that domestic workers may not always fill.

    The following table provides a detailed overview of how international students contributed to addressing critical workforce shortages in key sectors post-COVID.

    Table 2: International Student Contribution to Key Workforce Sectors (Post-COVID)

    SectorNature of Labor Shortage AddressedEvidence of Student ContributionRelevant Data Points / Policy Changes
    Hospitality & RetailGeneral vacancies, part-time & casual roles, lower-wage jobs, inability of businesses to operate at full capacityCritical for supporting part-time and casual roles, backbone of dynamic trading environments.18 Many international students take lower-wage jobs.1785% of businesses unable to operate at full capacity due to labor shortages; 25,600 retail job vacancies nationally.17
    Aged CareCritical staff shortages, need for continuity of care as domestic workers quarantined/took leaveTemporary relaxation of visa work limits for international students already employed in aged care.19 Students helped fill critical staff shortages.19Policy change announced March 2020.19 Projected need for 250,000 additional skilled healthcare workers by 2027; shortage of 70,000 nurses by 2035.17
    ChildcareGeneral staff shortagesInternational students are crucial for supporting roles.16N/A (specific data not provided in snippets, but acknowledged as a sector supported).16
    TourismWorkforce support, particularly in casual rolesUnderpins tourism sector.16 Businesses reliant on international travelers stood down staff due to collapse in demand.5N/A (specific data not provided in snippets, but acknowledged as a sector supported).16
    Overall EconomyAddressing critical workforce shortages, boosting economyGovernment encouraged return of international students to address shortages.10 Supported 250,000 jobs nationally in 2023.10250,000 jobs supported by international education (more than double mining combined).16

    4. The Disconnect: Media Narratives vs. Economic Realities

    Despite their profound and multifaceted economic contributions, international students are frequently subjected to negative media portrayals and public blame for systemic societal issues. This creates a significant disconnect between their empirically verifiable economic value and their public perception.

    One of the most prevalent negative narratives positions international students as culprits in Australia’s housing crisis. They are often prominently blamed for ostensibly contributing to rising housing costs and the rental crisis.15 This narrative has been echoed by politicians, including the Treasurer, who suggested that increased numbers of foreign students “puts pressure on prices and rents”.21 However, academic research and industry data strongly challenge this assertion. A 2024 study from the University of South Australia found that international students are “not the culprits of the rental crisis” and “only constituted a small part of the puzzle”.21 This research, based on data from 2017 to 2024, found “no statistical relationship between international members and the housing crisis” and that an increase of 10,000 international students actually led to a corresponding decrease of $1 in weekly rents when other factors were controlled.21 The Student Accommodation Council further supports this, noting that international students make up just 6% of renters nationally, with almost 40% living in student housing.21 They are often at a disadvantage in the private rental market due to lack of rental history or immediate income statements.21 This suggests that the housing crisis is driven by “very complicated macro-level socio-economic reasons” rather than student numbers.21

    Similarly, media narratives and political rhetoric have fostered concerns about international students creating job competition 20 and framed them as “economic threats” 24, implying they displace domestic workers. This contrasts sharply with the documented reality of severe labor shortages across Australia, particularly in sectors like hospitality, retail, and aged care, where international students are crucial for filling identified gaps.16

    Furthermore, academic research reveals that Australian media, exemplified by current affairs programs like “Four Corners,” has misrepresented international students’ English language proficiency. These portrayals often assign them “responsibility for declining standards at universities” through simplistic and naive representations of their language use as problematic.25 This discourse contributes to their discursive exclusion from the broader societal narrative.

    Beyond specific issues, international students are frequently characterized in media and public discourse as “temporary, expendable, or invisible”.24 Academic analysis indicates that media discourses tend to “commodify” international students, valuing them primarily for their fees, while simultaneously marginalizing them as the “excluded ‘other’” in Australian society.27 This leads to a painful juxtaposition where they are welcomed for their financial contribution but simultaneously devalued and subjected to overt and covert racism, including being “spat at, yelled at with racist slurs, and being told to ‘go back home’”.24

    The impact of government messaging has also played a role in shaping these perceptions. The Australian Prime Minister’s public suggestion for international students to “go home” during the pandemic contributed to a sense of abandonment and undermined Australia’s reputation as an attractive destination.8 Such statements, along with policy changes like increasing visa fees 15, send a clear message that can contradict the economic reality of their value.

    Research from the Australian National University (ANU) highlights that media narratives are often more effective at influencing public opinion than facts.30 When people are exposed to negative immigration narratives, it reduces public support for increasing or maintaining current migration levels.30 This underscores the importance of impartial media reporting, as emotive narratives can significantly shift public views and, consequently, political and policy outcomes.30

    In response to these pervasive negative narratives, there have been efforts to present a more balanced and fact-based perspective. Studies have explicitly refuted the claim that international students are the primary cause of the housing crisis.21 Universities Australia and other industry bodies consistently issue statements highlighting the substantial economic contributions of international education, emphasizing its role in GDP growth and job creation.7 Furthermore, international students themselves, through initiatives like the film “Phoenix,” are actively taking back their stories, offering lived experiences to challenge flat, villainous, or victimized portrayals.24 These counter-narratives aim to foster recognition of international students as equals, colleagues, neighbors, and community builders, rather than merely fee-payers or temporary migrants.24

    Conclusions

    The evidence overwhelmingly demonstrates that international students played an indispensable and multifaceted role in Australia’s post-COVID economic recovery, serving as a significant force in averting a deeper recession. Their contribution extends far beyond tuition fees, acting as a major export industry that injected tens of billions of dollars into the Australian economy through diverse expenditures on goods and services, thereby generating a substantial multiplier effect across various sectors. The sector’s rapid rebound to over $51 billion in export value by FY 2023-24 and its role in driving half of Australia’s economic growth in 2023 underscore its critical importance as a cornerstone of national prosperity.

    Crucially, international students also served as vital economic shock absorbers and workforce stabilizers during a period of severe labor shortages. They filled critical gaps in essential services and casual-heavy industries such as hospitality, retail, aged care, and childcare, enabling businesses to operate and maintaining service continuity. Government policies that facilitated their return and relaxed work hour limits during the pandemic explicitly acknowledged their indispensable contribution to the labor market. The dual economic contribution—as a major export and a flexible workforce—creates a powerful reinforcing cycle, with a significant portion of their expenditure directly funded by their work within Australia.

    Despite these undeniable economic and social benefits, public discourse and media narratives frequently misrepresent international students. They are often unfairly scapegoated for systemic issues like the housing crisis, despite empirical evidence demonstrating minimal correlation. Similarly, narratives of job competition contradict the reality of widespread labor shortages that students actively help address. Such misrepresentations, sometimes amplified by political rhetoric, contribute to their marginalization and can undermine Australia’s reputation as a welcoming study destination.

    Moving forward, it is imperative for policymakers and public discourse to align with the economic realities. Recognizing and valuing the comprehensive contributions of international students, beyond their financial input, is essential for fostering a stable, resilient, and inclusive Australian economy. Policies should be informed by data that acknowledges their role in both national income generation and critical workforce support, rather than being swayed by misinformed narratives. Maintaining a supportive and welcoming environment for international students is not merely a matter of social equity but a fundamental component of Australia’s ongoing economic strength and global competitiveness.

    Works cited

    1. COVID-19 early recovery – Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.dfat.gov.au/australia-vietnam/eees/en/strategy/covid-19-early-recovery.html
    2. The impacts of COVID‐19 containment on the Australian economy and its agricultural and mining industries – PMC, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8652510/
    3. Review of Australia’s response to international student needs during the COVID-19 pandemic – ERIC, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1372493.pdf
    4. Chapter 1 – Introduction – Parliament of Australia, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/Tourismandeducation/Interim_Report_-_Inquiry_into_Australias_International_Education_Sector/Chapter_1_-_Introduction
    5. The COVID-19 Outbreak and Australia’s Education and Tourism Exports, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/dec/pdf/the-covid-19-outbreak-and-australias-education-and-tourism-exports.pdf
    6. Australia’s Exports of Education Services, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2008/jun/pdf/bu-0608-2.pdf
    7. International education adds $29 billion to the economy – Universities Australia, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/international-education-adds-29-billion-to-the-economy/
    8. Inquiry into the post COVID-19 recovery of Australia’s international education sector, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=46f1b7a7-e158-49e5-8290-21007727b820&subId=728103
    9. Education as an Export for Australia – The Koala News, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://thekoalanews.com/education-as-an-export-for-australia/
    10. Draft International Education and Skills Strategic Framework — response to the Department of Education – Universities Australia, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://universitiesaustralia.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/UA048-International-Education-and-Skills-Strategic-Framework-Response_v3-1.pdf
    11. Education as an Export for Australia: A Third Perfect Storm – The Koala News, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://thekoalanews.com/education-as-an-export-for-australia-a-third-perfect-storm/
    12. Recording of international students in the balance of payments …, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/recording-international-students-balance-payments
    13. Education export income – Financial Year – Department of Education, Australian Government, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.education.gov.au/international-education-data-and-research/education-export-income-financial-year
    14. INTERNATIONAL STUDENT CUTS HURTING THE ECONOMY – Universities Australia, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/international-student-cuts-hurting-the-economy/
    15. STUDENT CAP PLAN WILL DAMAGE ECONOMY WITHOUT FIXING HOUSING CRISIS, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://universitiesaustralia.edu.au/media-item/student-cap-plan-will-damage-economy-without-fixing-housing-crisis/
    16. Proposed Student Visa Hike Will Cost Thousands of Australian’s Jobs – The Koala News, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://thekoalanews.com/proposed-student-visa-hike-will-cost-thousands-of-australians-jobs/
    17. What’s going on with the labor shortage? – People Matters ANZ, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://anz.peoplemattersglobal.com/article/economy-policy/whats-going-on-with-the-labor-shortage-45046
    18. Fed-election: International student restrictions a setback for retailers, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.nationalretail.org.au/fed-election-international-student-restrictions-a-setback-for-retailers/
    19. International students ready to fill critical staff shortages in aged care, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/senator-the-hon-richard-colbeck/media/international-students-ready-to-fill-critical-staff-shortages-in-aged-care
    20. Changing Winds | NAFSA, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.nafsa.org/ie-magazine/2024/10/17/changing-winds
    21. Are international students to blame for the housing crisis? | SBS News, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/are-international-students-to-blame-for-the-housing-crisis/f9q327agx
    22. International students not to blame for rising rents, Australian study finds – Reddit, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.reddit.com/r/AustralianPolitics/comments/1jg4zay/international_students_not_to_blame_for_rising/
    23. Are International Students Really to Blame for Australia’s Housing & Job Crisis? – Reddit, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.reddit.com/r/AskAnAustralian/comments/1jlfe0p/are_international_students_really_to_blame_for/
    24. Misunderstood & misrepresented: these international students are taking their stories back – Women’s Agenda, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://womensagenda.com.au/latest/misunderstood-misrepresented-these-international-students-are-taking-their-stories-back/
    25. EJ1291925 – The Discursive (Mis)Representation of English Language Proficiency: International Students in the Australian Media, Australian Review of Applied Linguistics, 2021-Mar – ERIC, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1291925
    26. The discursive (mis)representation of English language proficiency: International students in the Australian media – John Benjamins, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://benjamins.com/catalog/aral.19039.bod
    27. Welcome and Exclusion: An Analysis of the Australian Newspaper’s Coverage of International Students | Request PDF – ResearchGate, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271738824_Welcome_and_Exclusion_An_Analysis_of_the_Australian_Newspaper’s_Coverage_of_International_Students
    28. Impact of COVID-19 on South Asian graduates’ employment experiences in Australia: a qualitative study | Emerald Insight, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/et-05-2023-0216/full/html
    29. International students in Australia – during and after COVID-19 – ResearchGate, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/347280303_International_students_in_Australia_-_during_and_after_COVID-19
    30. Australians want less migration but support for international students remains steady, accessed on May 29, 2025, https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/australians-want-less-migration-but-support-for-international-students-remains-steady
  • The Tale of 2 Economies: Navigating the Growth Paradox in China 

    China presents a compelling case of the growth paradox, where robust economic indicators mask underlying disparities and societal sentiments. The dichotomy between China’s impressive economic figures and the lived realities of its businesses and people indicates how these contradictions coexist. Understanding these divides and seeking solutions to bridge them can have a significant impact on the nation’s economic trajectory and its global standing.

    A Growth Paradox

    On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China’s GDP growth for 2023 reached 5.2 percent, a growth rate that is highly commendable and ranks prominently on the global stage. That figure would suggest that the Chinese economy has achieved stable and rapid growth, again. 

    However, the reality shows clear signs of strain: Consumers are saving their shrinking disposable incomes instead of spending them, and enterprises are suspending their investments due to fear of declining profitability and company value. 

    In 2023, the total market value of A-shares in China decreased by approximately 8.5 trillion yuan, an amount equivalent to the total cost of the Belt and Road Initiative over its lifetime (estimated to be between $1.2-1.3 trillion, or about 8-9 trillion yuan). This decline occurred against the backdrop of growing capital markets in the United States, various European countries, and India. In the first trading week of 2024 alone, an additional 7 trillion yuan was lost. Stock markets mirror the collective sentiments of investors, currently indicating a loss of confidence in China’s growth prospects.

    People I talked to during my recent trip to China shared these sentiments: The rich have little confidence in growing or even sustaining their wealth; the poor have little hope of upward mobility. Two phrases, “involution” (内卷) and “lying flat” (躺平) encapsulate what happened over the past year. Involution is a sociological term describing a state of excessive and ineffective competition, leading to a zero-sum game where resources are redistributed but minimal genuine value is created. Lying flat, an internet slang term, characterizes the attitude of those who opt out of this relentless competition, choosing instead to accept their circumstances and leave their fate to time.

    In socioeconomic terms, the “growth paradox” describes a phenomenon where there is an inconsistency between the statistical data of economic growth and the actual economic welfare of the general populace. This disparity involves complex structural issues that require comprehensive policy adjustments and socioeconomic development strategies for resolution.

    Unequal Benefits of Economic Growth

    The growth paradox is primarily due to the unequal distribution of economic growth benefits. Large enterprises and the urban elite disproportionately accumulate wealth, benefiting from the country’s economic growth. Their success overshadows the slower growth and constrained opportunities for private businesses, particularly small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and rural residents. 

    Despite SMEs in China representing 99.8 percent of all business entities and employing nearly 80 percent of the workforce, they face a contraction phase marked by limited access to capital, complex regulatory hurdles and excessive competition in a shrinking market. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from October 2023 underscored this divide: Large enterprises posted a PMI of 50.3 percent, with state-owned enterprises at 50.0 percent and large private enterprises at 50.7 percent, all indicating expansion. In contrast, medium-sized enterprises experienced a PMI of 48.6 percent, and small enterprises were at 47.5 percent, both in the contraction zone. 

    This pattern reflects broader industrial output differences in China. State-controlled enterprises saw a 7 percent growth in 2023, compared to a modest 5 percent for private enterprises, most of which are SMEs. Given the large number of employees in the SME sector, more people felt the strain of an economic downturn.

    Overcapacity vs Lack of Capacity 

    As the world’s factory, China’s production capacity was tailored to supply the global market during the golden age of globalization, from 1999 to 2018. However, since the onset of the trade war between the United States and China, efforts to de-risk dependency on China’s supply chains have particularly impacted China’s manufacturing sector. 

    SMEs, the backbone of China’s export-oriented manufacturing sector, are encountering severe profitability challenges, with many on the brink of bankruptcy. A sharp reduction in sales for an export-oriented company can significantly affect not only its own profitability, valuation, and stock price but also the financial health of many SMEs on the entire supply chain. This situation has created a vicious cycle where reduced profits hinder investment in R&D, production growth, and job creation, while intensified price competition from an involution-style rivalry further diminishes profits and, in some instances, leads to business shutdowns. This self-reinforcing cycle underscores the difficulties of operating in an economy facing declining demand, which results in serious overcapacity and unemployment. 

    On the other hand, China’s rapid advances in manufacturing have led to a dilemma in geopolitics. The country has ascended the global value chain, modernizing its industrial sector. This rise has been accompanied by an assertive recalibration of its international standing, aiming to reflect its burgeoning economic clout, especially in negotiations with the United States. However, this upward trajectory is tempered by a vulnerability due to its dependence on imported technologies and access to an open global market for its production capacity. This leaves China susceptible to U.S. sanctions on advanced technologies and to shifts in supply chains away from China toward the nearshoring and friend-shoring partners of the United States. 

    The semiconductor sector illustrates this point vividly. China faces significant “chokepoints” imposed by the U.S. and its allies in chipmaking, leading to shortages in high-end, especially AI, chips. Concurrently, China’s substantial investments in mature-node chipmaking risk creating internal competition and overcapacity, which could potentially result in anti-dumping trade restrictions from other countries. 

    Domestic vs Geopolitical Challenges

    The disconnect between economic growth, as suggested by statistical data, and the collective sentiments arise from a misalignment between macroeconomic trends and microeconomic activities within China. Government policies might focus more on long-term structural and quality improvements of the economy rather than on short-term employment and income growth, which may not be immediately understood or accepted by the public. Policy-driven GDP growth in large projects or investments in certain areas or industries may not directly translate into job opportunities or income increases for average citizens. 

    On one hand, sectors like renewable energy, electric vehicles, and high-tech manufacturing – considered the three new engines for China’s GDP – continue to offer promising growth avenues. On the other hand, businesses face significant challenges due to unpredictable policies, contracting export markets, reduced government spending, and cautious consumption by local consumers. These challenges cascade down the economic value chain. 

    The collapse of several high-profile real estate companies last year has triggered a domino effect across supply chains, resulting in decreased production within upstream industries such as steelmaking, cement, and construction, as well as affecting downstream sectors like furnishing and furniture. A fear of widespread economic instability and loss of investor confidence may ensue. At the societal level, collective sentiments include lowered expectations for future earnings; rising unemployment, especially among the youth; growing income inequality due to the concentration of wealth in certain industries and regions; and increasing costs (visible and invisible) in education, healthcare and aged care. 

    Globally, China is facing an increasingly hostile geopolitical landscape, where, as shown in the semiconductor sector, geopolitical pressures result in critical technology shortages and push China toward developing a self-reliant ecosystem to mitigate foreign influence and secure its economic future. 

    The China-U.S. relationship is at the core of China’s geopolitical complexity. Over nearly half a century, the relationship between China and the United States has evolved from diplomatic engagement to deep economic cooperation, and now to a state of strategic competition. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations, trade between the two countries has grown more than 200-fold over 45 years, with bilateral investment exceeding $260 billion, and over 70,000 American companies investing and operating in China. 

    Recently, the economic relationship between the two countries has shifted into a new era of technology rivalry, marked by strategic competition for control over global supply chains of critical technologies and minerals. This rivalry can potentially lead to technology decoupling. Such developments have profoundly impacted China’s economy, with export-oriented SMEs being particularly affected due to U.S.-led reshuffling of the global supply chains.

    A More Reclusive China?

    Facing such challenges, China is pivoting toward an inward-looking strategy. It is cultivating a self-reliant ecosystem focused on bolstering its large domestic market and internal circulation, aimed at becoming less susceptible to foreign influences. 

    China isolated itself for three years during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the post-pandemic era, China has cautiously opened its borders. Yet, wandering through the bustling streets in China, even in large cities like Beijing and Shenzhen, one notices a curious absence: Foreign faces are markedly sparse. 

    In 2023, China reported its first negative foreign direct investment (FDI) since 1998. Inward FDI has played a significant role in China’s economic growth, employment, productivity, and technological innovation. However, foreign enterprises and their foreign employees are either rushing out of China or have not yet returned post-pandemic.

    China’s advanced digital infrastructure has become a virtual barrier for foreigners. Chinese citizens have embraced technology with fervent zeal. China has leapfrogged into a cashless society where QR codes serve as the magic wand of commerce. They enable the easy acquisition of goods and services, including public services such as those in hospitals, schools, and customs at the borders, with a simple scan. However, for outsiders, especially those without a Chinese residential permit – which is required for foreigners to open a bank account and thus set up a QR code for mobile payments – life in China can be disorienting. 

    Beyond this virtual barrier, the digital divide is perhaps the most striking for foreign visitors. The Great Firewall, now AI-enhanced, looms large, segregating the online world. Efforts to breach this digital barrier, even via VPNs, are often futile.

    The Way Forward

    China’s economic reality, through the lens of the growth paradox, reveals the disparities between economic numbers and the sentiments of the people and businesses. These disparities underscore the need for more inclusive growth strategies. As China navigates the choppy waters of domestic challenges and geopolitical uncertainty, the true measure of its economic success will be how well it bridges these divides, ensuring that the fruits of growth are more evenly distributed across all strata of society. 

    The path forward calls for a balanced approach that harmonizes state-led development with market-driven entrepreneurship, fostering an environment where foreign and private businesses and entrepreneurs regain their confidence to invest for the future, and to grow their wealth through innovation and hard work. For confidence to return, they need not just growth opportunities but also stable and predictable policies, as well as a friendlier and more open global market.

    Specifically, shifting the focus from prioritizing infrastructure investment toward increasing investment in areas that contribute to social security, healthcare, and education will foster confidence among average citizens regarding their future. This approach may boost domestic consumption.

    Expanding high-level openness to the international community and continuously creating a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized business environment are crucial to achieve this goal. Effectively removing barriers for foreign nationals coming to China for business, study, or tourism, and enhancing the convenience of living, traveling, and working in China are essential first steps.




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  • An Analytical Overview of the Education System in Pakistan: Structure, Challenges, and Reform Initiatives

    1. Executive Summary

    Pakistan’s Education Sector

    An In-Depth Market Analysis

    Market Overview: Scale and Critical Juncture

    Pakistan’s education sector represents a vast market, catering to tens of millions. However, it currently faces an “Education Emergency,” signaling significant challenges and opportunities for transformation. Understanding its scale is the first step in analyzing its dynamics.

    54.87 M
    Total Enrolled Students (2021-22)

    This figure highlights the immense scale of the education ‘market’ in Pakistan, encompassing all levels from pre-primary to tertiary education.

    EDUCATION EMERGENCY
    Declared May 2023

    This declaration by the Prime Minister underscores the critical challenges facing the sector, including access, quality, and equity, demanding urgent and comprehensive interventions.

    Market Segmentation: Enrollment Across Educational Tiers

    The education market is segmented into distinct tiers, each with a significant student population. Analyzing enrollment at each level reveals the current distribution and potential areas for growth or intervention.

    Student Enrollment by Educational Level (2021-22)

    Primary education constitutes the largest segment, followed by pre-primary. Higher education and TVET represent smaller but crucial segments for advanced skill development and economic contribution. The data shows millions of students at each stage of their educational journey.

    Institutional Landscape: Public, Private, and Religious Providers

    The “supply side” of the education market consists of public, private, and religious institutions (Madrasas). Their respective shares and characteristics influence accessibility, quality, and the overall educational experience.

    Distribution of Educational Institutions

    Public sector institutions form the majority, but the private sector holds a substantial share, indicating a mixed economy in educational provision.

    Private Sector & Madrasa Enrollment Share

    The private sector accounts for a significant portion of primary enrollment, particularly in provinces like Punjab and Sindh. Madrasas also serve a notable percentage of rural children.

    Key Market Challenges: Access, Quality, and Infrastructure Gaps

    Despite its size, the education market is fraught with challenges. Millions are excluded, learning outcomes are poor, and basic infrastructure is often lacking, representing significant “market failures” or unmet needs.

    26.2 M
    Out-of-School Children

    A staggering number of children are not enrolled, representing a massive untapped “market” and a critical social challenge. This issue disproportionately affects girls and rural children.

    77%
    Learning Poverty (10-year-olds unable to read age-appropriate text)

    This alarming statistic (May 2024) indicates a severe quality deficit in the education provided, impacting future human capital.

    57%
    Public Institutions Lack Electricity

    Basic amenities are missing in a majority of public schools, highlighting critical infrastructure gaps. Other deficits include 41% lacking drinking water and 28% without boundary walls.

    Consumer Profile: Literacy Landscape & Disparities

    Literacy is a key indicator of educational attainment and “consumer readiness” for further development or economic participation. Significant disparities exist across demographics and regions.

    National Literacy Rates by Gender (2023 Census)

    A persistent gender gap in literacy is evident, with males having a higher literacy rate than females nationally. Overall national literacy stands at 62.85%.

    Literacy Disparities: Urban vs. Rural & Regional Extremes

    Urban areas show significantly higher literacy rates compared to rural areas. Extreme regional disparities also exist, for example, between Islamabad and Torghar district.

    Market Investment: Public Spending on Education

    The level of public investment is a critical factor influencing the education sector’s capacity for growth and quality improvement. Historically, this has been an area of concern.

    ~2%
    Of National Public Sector Development Program (FY 2023-24) Allocated to Education

    This figure reflects ongoing low levels of public investment in the education sector relative to national development spending.

    1.87%
    Education Spending as % of GDP (2023)

    Pakistan’s education expenditure as a percentage of its Gross Domestic Product remains low, impacting resource availability for schools, teachers, and infrastructure.

    Strategic Outlook: Reform Initiatives & National Goals

    Various national strategies and reform initiatives aim to address the sector’s challenges and steer it towards improvement. Key among these are Vision 2025 and the “Skills for All” strategy.

    Pakistan Vision 2025: Education Targets vs. Current Status

    Goal Area Target by 2025 Current Status (Approx.)
    Primary Enrollment 100% Challenged (26.2M OOSC)
    Literacy Rate 90% ~62.85% (2023)
    Higher Education Enrollment 12% 11.22% (2023) – Nearing Target

    Vision 2025 set ambitious targets. While progress in higher education enrollment is notable, primary enrollment and literacy rate goals remain significantly distant, highlighting persistent systemic challenges.

    Single National Curriculum (SNC)

    Aimed to standardize education and reduce disparities across public, private, and religious schools. Challenges include socio-cultural diversity, infrastructure gaps, and teacher preparedness. Emphasis on rote learning remains a criticism.

    “Skills for All” Strategy (2021)

    Focuses on equipping youth, especially girls, with green and digital skills for evolving job markets. Aims to align with SDGs for quality education, gender equality, and decent work. TVET enrollment, however, remains relatively low.

    © Education Sector Market Analysis. Data derived from public reports.

    Infographic for illustrative purposes.

    Pakistan’s education system is a complex and multifaceted landscape, characterized by a structured progression from pre-primary to higher education, alongside a diverse institutional mix of public, private, and religious seminaries. Despite being a declared national priority, the sector faces profound and persistent challenges in access, quality, and equitable funding. Millions of children remain out of school, learning outcomes are alarmingly low, and significant disparities persist across gender, income levels, and urban-rural divides. Governance issues, exacerbated by the devolution of education responsibilities and fragmented coordination, further impede progress. While ambitious reform initiatives like Vision 2025 and the Single National Curriculum aim to standardize and improve educational standards, their implementation is often hampered by deep-seated structural realities, including underinvestment, inadequate infrastructure, and a pervasive emphasis on rote learning over critical thinking. Addressing these systemic issues requires a holistic, sustained, and evidence-based approach that transcends policy declarations to foster genuine transformation and ensure inclusive, quality education for all Pakistani children.

    2. Introduction: Overview and Context of Education in Pakistan

    Contextualizing Pakistan’s Education Landscape

    Education in Pakistan is recognized as a cornerstone of national development, a sentiment profoundly articulated by the nation’s founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, who declared, “Education is a matter of life and death to our nations”.1 This foundational belief has consistently positioned education as a “top government priority” within national strategic plans, including the Pakistan 2025 Vision launched in 2014, which dedicates two of its 25 key goals to the education sector.2 The country’s rich linguistic, cultural, and ethnic diversity significantly shapes its educational environment, presenting both opportunities and complexities.3 Historically, the curriculum and textbooks have been utilized as instruments for instilling Islamic ideology and fostering a unified national identity.1 However, despite this consistent emphasis and numerous policy interventions—including eight educational policies, eight five-year plans, and various commissions over 75 years—the sector has experienced continuous, yet often fragmented, reform efforts.1

    Current State and Urgency

    Despite the stated national commitment, Pakistan’s education system is currently grappling with what Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has termed an “Education Emergency”.4 This urgent situation is underscored by critical challenges, including an estimated 26.2 million children who are out of school, a figure exacerbated by the widespread destruction of thousands of classrooms due to the catastrophic floods of 2022.4 The crisis is fundamentally characterized by pervasive systemic barriers related to access, quality, and equity.5 A particularly severe issue is “learning poverty,” where a staggering 80% of children at late primary age lack proficiency in reading, a rate significantly worse than the averages for both South Asia and lower-middle-income countries.7 This concerning figure further deteriorated to 77% by May 2024, indicating that a vast majority of 10-year-olds are unable to comprehend a short, age-appropriate text.8

    The persistent gap between declared policy priority and actual outcomes is a critical observation. The research consistently highlights education as a “top priority” 2 and a “matter of life and death” 1, yet simultaneously presents alarming statistics: 26.2 million children out of school 5, 80% learning poverty 7, and stagnant literacy rates.9 This stark contrast suggests a fundamental disconnect. The frequent policy changes—eight in 75 years 1—without substantial improvement 11 indicate that the challenge is not a lack of policy intent but rather a failure in consistent, impactful implementation, adequate resource allocation, or sustained political commitment. This implies that policy formulation alone is insufficient to drive change; effective reform necessitates robust implementation mechanisms, transparent accountability frameworks, and unwavering political will that transcends short-term declarations and addresses deep-seated structural impediments.

    Furthermore, education in Pakistan stands out as a sector highly vulnerable to external shocks. The explicit mention of “nationwide and severe disruptions” to schooling due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 floods 8, including thousands of destroyed classrooms 4 and the use of schools for flood displacement 8, reveals the inherent fragility of Pakistan’s education infrastructure. The subsequent increase in out-of-school children 8 and the disproportionate impact on vulnerable groups 8 underscore how external crises directly undermine educational continuity and exacerbate existing inequalities. This highlights a critical need for building resilience within the education system. Future policy must integrate comprehensive disaster preparedness, climate-resilient infrastructure, and robust, equitable distance learning capabilities to ensure educational continuity during crises. It also emphasizes that education is not an isolated sector but deeply intertwined with broader socio-economic and environmental vulnerabilities.

    3. Structure of the Education System: Levels and Institutional Diversity

    Educational Tiers

    Pakistan’s national education system is fundamentally structured into twelve years of formal schooling, progressing through distinct levels. These include primary education (grades 1-5), middle school (grades 6-8), matriculation (grades 9 and 10), and intermediate (grades 11 and 12).2 Prior to formal schooling, pre-primary education, designed for children aged 3 to 5, serves as a foundational stage, typically comprising Play Group, Nursery, and Kindergarten.10

    Crucial academic milestones punctuate this progression. Students undertake the Secondary School Certificate (SSC), commonly known as Matriculation, examination at the conclusion of Grade 10, which is a pivotal determinant for eligibility to pursue higher education.10 Following this, the Higher Secondary School Certificate (HSSC) is awarded upon successful completion of years 11 and 12.10 Beyond the intermediate level, post-secondary education encompasses undergraduate studies, leading to bachelor’s degrees, and various technical and vocational training programs.15 The higher education landscape in Pakistan is substantial, with over 200 universities and 3,000 degree colleges operating across the country.2 The Higher Education Commission (HEC) plays a central regulatory role, responsible for accrediting 202 universities in both the public and private sectors.2

    Types of Institutions

    The schooling system in Pakistan is broadly segmented into modern education and religious education, known as Madrasas.16

    Modern Education: This category comprises two primary types of institutions:

    • Public Sector Schools: These schools are established and funded by the government, providing free education, including textbooks and essential school equipment.16 The primary medium of instruction in these institutions is Urdu, the national language, with English typically taught as a basic subject.16
    • Private Sector Schools: Operating on a fee-based model, students enrolled in private schools are required to pay monthly or annual tuition, with additional costs for books and other materials.16 English serves as the predominant language of instruction in these schools.16 A notable feature of some private schools, particularly in major cities, is the option for students to pursue international qualifications such as O’ levels (University of Cambridge), which allows for subject selection based on individual interests.16 The private sector plays a significant role in primary enrollment, accounting for 30-36% nationally 11, with higher penetration observed in wealthier households and in provinces like Punjab (35%) and Sindh (30%).12

    Religious Seminaries (Madrasas): Known in Urdu as Madaris-e-Deeniya, these Islamic seminaries primarily focus on religious subjects. The curriculum typically includes Quranic interpretation (tafseer), Hadith (sayings of Muhammad), Islamic law (fiqh), and Arabic, though some institutions integrate non-Islamic subjects such as logic, philosophy, and mathematics to broaden students’ understanding.16 The majority of madrasas in Pakistan adhere to the Deobandi doctrine of Sunni Islam, while a smaller proportion (4-10%) cater to the minority Shia population.17 Madrasas often provide free room and board, offering a crucial educational pathway and fostering social mobility for impoverished students, who often develop intense devotion to their teachers due to the immersive and intimate living conditions.17 However, these institutions have also drawn concerns regarding their potential to foster “religious radicalism” and, in some instances, serve as “breeding grounds for radical Islamic terrorists,” with reports of graduates being recruited for “jihadi training”.17 Approximately 13% of rural children attend madrasas at some level, with higher concentrations (over 20%) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, and FATA.12

    The co-existence of distinct public, private, and madrassa education systems, with their varying mediums of instruction, diverse curricula, and disparate funding models, inherently creates significant educational inequality.1 This segmentation means students from different socio-economic backgrounds receive vastly different qualities and types of education, thereby impeding social mobility and potentially undermining national cohesion. The increasing reliance on private schools, even for lower-income families 11, further entrenches this divide. Moreover, the concerns surrounding madrasas fostering “religious radicalism” 17 introduce a layer of societal risk, suggesting that while institutional diversity provides access, it also poses significant challenges to fostering a unified national identity and promoting social harmony. Addressing educational inequality in Pakistan therefore requires not merely improving public schools but also a comprehensive strategy to bridge the quality, ideological, and socio-economic gaps between these diverse institutional types. The Single National Curriculum (SNC) attempts to address this 1, but its implementation challenges 3 highlight the complexity of harmonizing such a fragmented system.

    Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) Landscape

    Recognizing the importance of skill development, the government has established various Skill Development Technical Councils under the National Training Board, which operate through public-private partnerships.2 In a concerted effort to address the needs of unskilled and economically challenged segments of the population, the Ministry of Federal Education & Professional Training introduced the national “Skills for All” strategy in 2021.2 This initiative specifically aims to equip youth, particularly girls, with green and digital skills, aligning Pakistan’s aspirations with global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to quality education, gender equality, and decent work opportunities.19 The program is designed to prepare the younger generation for rapidly evolving job markets and enable their meaningful contribution to sustainable industries, fostering both economic resilience and positioning Pakistan as a proactive participant in the global sustainability agenda.19

    While the “Skills for All” strategy 2 and the focus on green and digital skills 19 represent forward-looking initiatives to prepare youth for the evolving job market and sustainable industries, the relatively low enrollment in TVET (455,000 students in 2021-22) compared to general education (e.g., 25 million in primary) 2 suggests that this sector is not yet fully leveraged. The emphasis on empowering girls and economically disadvantaged youth through TVET 19 highlights its significant potential for fostering social mobility and gender equality. However, the current scale of TVET enrollment indicates a missed opportunity for broader economic resilience, poverty alleviation, and addressing the skills gap in the workforce. For Pakistan to effectively harness its demographic dividend and address persistent unemployment, there is a critical need for substantial expansion and mainstreaming of TVET. This must be coupled with stronger linkages to industry demands and a concerted effort to improve societal perception of vocational training. Current low enrollment figures suggest that significant accessibility barriers, funding limitations, or cultural biases might still exist, preventing this crucial sector from reaching its full potential in driving inclusive economic growth.

    Enrollment and Institutional Statistics (2021-2023)

    The education system in Pakistan serves a vast student population across its various tiers. In the 2021-22 academic year, pre-primary education enrolled 11.35 million students, primary education (grades 1-5) accounted for 25 million, middle education (grades 6-8) had approximately 8.75 million, secondary education (grades 9-10) 4.5 million, and higher education 2.5 million.2 During the same period, technical and vocational education enrolled approximately 455,000 students, degree-awarding colleges 820,000, and universities 1.96 million.2 The total number of enrolled students across all levels in Pakistan was 54,870,964, supported by 2,139,631 teachers in 2021-22.6

    The institutional landscape reflects this scale, with approximately 182,600 functional primary schools, 46,800 middle schools, 34,800 secondary schools, 7,648 higher/secondary/intermediate colleges, and 3,729 technical and vocational institutes nationwide.2 The public sector accounts for 56.2% of all educational institutions, while the private sector comprises the remaining 43.8%.6 Tertiary school enrollment reached 11.22% in 2023, showing an increase from 10.62% in 2022, though this figure remains significantly below the global average of 40.35%.20

    The following table provides a comprehensive quantitative snapshot of Pakistan’s education system, illustrating its scale and distribution across various levels and institutional types.

    Table 1: Pakistan’s Education System: Enrollment and Institutional Landscape (2021-2023)

    Educational LevelNumber of Institutions (2021-22)Student Enrollment (2021-22)Projected Student Enrollment (2022-23)Number of Teachers (2021-22)Projected Number of Teachers (2022-23)
    Pre-Primary11.35 million12.09 million
    Primary (Grades 1-5)182,60025.0 million24.04 million463,200
    Middle (Grades 6-8)46,8008.75 million9.10 million434,300
    Secondary (Grades 9-10)34,8004.5 million4.64 million587,100
    Higher Secondary (Grades 11-12)7,6482.15 million2.26 million170,200
    Degree Colleges (Grades 13-14)3,0000.82 million0.63 million57,70062,300
    Universities2001.96 million2.41 million69,600
    TVET Institutes3,7290.455 million0.44 million18,300
    Total Enrolled Students54.87 million55.60 million2.14 million
    Public Sector Institutions56.2%
    Private Sector Institutions43.8%
    Tertiary Enrollment Rate (2023)11.22%

    Note: Enrollment figures for pre-primary, primary, middle, secondary, and higher education are from Pakistan Economic Survey 2021-23.2 More detailed enrollment and teacher data for 2021-22 and 2022-23 projections are from Pakistan Institute of Education.21 The total enrolled students and public/private institutional split are from Pakistan Education Statistics 2021-22.6 Tertiary enrollment rate is from UNESCO 2023 data.20 Some figures may slightly vary across sources due to different reporting methodologies or aggregation periods.

    4. Governance and Regulatory Framework

    Devolution of Education: Impact of the 18th Constitutional Amendment (2010)

    A pivotal transformation in Pakistan’s governance structure, with significant implications for education, was the passage of the 18th Amendment to the Constitution in 2010. This amendment fundamentally reshaped the distribution of legislative powers by abolishing the Concurrent List, which had previously allowed both federal and provincial governments to legislate on shared subjects.22 As a direct consequence, the subject of education, including higher education, was largely devolved to the provincial legislatures, making them primarily responsible for its administration and policy formulation.22

    A landmark outcome of this amendment was the insertion of Article 25-A into the Constitution. This article established the “Right to Education” as a fundamental and justiciable right, obligating the state to provide free and compulsory education to all children aged 5 to 16 years.11 While provinces gained exclusive jurisdiction over most educational matters, the federal legislature retained a specific authority over “standards in institutions for higher education and research, scientific and technical institutions”.23 This constitutional shift also led to the dissolution of 17 federal ministries, including the Ministry of Education, with their functions reassigned to the provinces, thereby extending provincial control to local government functions.24 Despite this extensive devolution, the federal government retains residual duties related to education, including providing “special financial support, monitoring and harmonization” to ensure the effective enforcement of Article 25-A.23

    Key Regulatory Bodies and Examination Boards

    The education system is overseen by several key regulatory bodies and a network of examination boards:

    • Higher Education Commission (HEC): The HEC functions as a constitutionally established, autonomous regulatory body with the mandate to fund, oversee, and accredit universities across Pakistan.2 It currently accredits 202 universities, encompassing both public and private institutions.2 Following the 18th Amendment, the HEC’s role was intended to be guided by the Council of Common Interests (CCI), reflecting the shift towards provincial autonomy.24
    • Skill Development Councils: To promote technical and vocational education and training (TVET), bodies such as the Skill Development Technical Council and provincial Skill Development Councils (e.g., Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar) have been established. These councils operate under the National Training Board through public-private partnerships.2
    • Educational Boards (BISEs): These boards are integral to the secondary and higher secondary education system, playing a vital role in setting academic standards and conducting examinations.25
    • The Federal Board of Intermediate and Secondary Education (FBISE) is responsible for federal territories, including Islamabad, Cantonment, and Garrison areas, as well as Pakistani schools abroad. It is recognized for its rigorous examination standards, fair evaluation methods, and detailed curricula.25
    • Each of Pakistan’s four provinces—Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—has its own Board of Intermediate and Secondary Education (BISE) operating at the district level.26 Prominent examples include BISE Punjab, which is the largest and most widespread; BISE Karachi, the primary authority for high school and college-level education in Pakistan’s largest city; BISE KP; and various BISE Sindh boards.25 These provincial boards are tasked with setting educational policies, designing curricula, and conducting examinations for secondary and higher secondary education within their respective jurisdictions.25 In total, Pakistan has 32 educational boards, including public institutions, private entities like Aga Khan University Karachi’s Examination Board, and three technical education boards.26

    Federal and Provincial Responsibilities

    Following the 18th Amendment, the primary responsibility for delivering free and compulsory primary and secondary education now rests squarely with the provincial governments.23 However, the federal government maintains a crucial, albeit redefined, role in ensuring the enforcement of Article 25-A through financial support, monitoring, and harmonization efforts.23 Despite the constitutional devolution, a significant challenge remains the persistent lack of effective coordination among the six different federal ministries involved in education policies, as well as between federal and provincial governments.11 This has led to suggestions that the federal government should minimize its direct implementation role and instead focus more on needs identification, planning, and coordination among relevant authorities.11

    The unfulfilled promise of devolution and persistent coordination gaps represent a significant impediment. The 18th Amendment’s devolution of education to the provinces 22 and the establishment of education as a justiciable right 23 were intended to empower sub-national governance and improve service delivery. However, the evidence indicates that this constitutional shift has not fully translated into effective governance. The “significant lack of coordination” among federal ministries and between federal and provincial levels 11 suggests that the legal framework for devolution is not matched by robust inter-governmental coordination mechanisms. The recommendation for the federal government to focus on “need identification, planning, and coordination” rather than direct implementation 11 implies that this ideal state of collaborative devolution has not been achieved, leading to fragmented and uncoordinated efforts.11 While the 18th Amendment was a crucial step towards provincial autonomy, its full potential for educational improvement is hindered by persistent governance and coordination challenges. Effective devolution requires not only legal transfer of power but also significant capacity building at provincial and district levels, clear delineation of roles, and strong, formalized inter-governmental coordination mechanisms to ensure coherence and avoid duplication or gaps in service delivery.

    Moreover, the centralized examination system functions as a significant bottleneck for quality and the cultivation of critical thinking. The extensive network of examination boards plays a central role in setting curricula and conducting exams.25 However, the research critically points to a “flawed examination and assessment system” that has received “the least attention in reforms”.11 This system is accused of reinforcing “rote learning” and being susceptible to “widespread cheating”.11 The lack of international recognition for Pakistani qualifications 11 and the preference for foreign-based O’ levels in private schools 16 further underscore the systemic failure of the national examination system to foster quality and higher-order thinking. This situation is directly linked to findings that textbooks are “not conducive to developing critical thinking skills” 27 and that teaching practices are driven by “rote learning and passing exams” due to external pressure.28 The examination system, rather than serving as a reliable measure of learning and a driver of quality, appears to be a significant impediment to educational progress. Its inherent design, which prioritizes memorization, actively discourages the development of critical thinking and deeper analytical skills. Any meaningful education reform in Pakistan must therefore include a fundamental overhaul of the examination system, shifting its focus from mere recall to the assessment of higher-order cognitive abilities, thereby incentivizing more effective teaching and learning practices.

    5. Curriculum, Pedagogy, and Language of Instruction

    Mediums of Instruction

    In Pakistan’s education system, Urdu and English serve as the primary languages of instruction.2 Public sector schools predominantly utilize Urdu as the medium, with English typically taught as a basic subject to introduce foundational concepts.16 Conversely, private sector schools widely adopt English as their primary language of instruction, reflecting a growing demand for English Medium Instruction (EMI) across the country.3 This demand sometimes comes at the expense of local languages, although English is a compulsory subject within the national curriculum.3 In addition to Urdu and English, provincial and regional languages such as Punjabi, Sindhi, and Pashto may also be taught in their respective provinces, particularly in regional language-medium schools.10

    Curriculum Content and Structure

    The curriculum for secondary education in Pakistan is structured around a combination of compulsory and elective subjects. Compulsory subjects typically include English, Urdu, Mathematics, Islamic Studies, and Pakistan Studies, while students can choose from elective streams such as science (Physics, Chemistry, Biology), commerce, or arts.10 In the early grades, from Nursery to Grade 1, the curriculum focuses on three core subjects: Science, Mathematics, and English. After Grade 1, the curriculum expands to include Islamic Studies and Social Studies.16

    Public schools adhere to textbooks provided by the government, which are taught in Urdu.16 In contrast, private schools frequently use Oxford edition textbooks up to Grade 8, after which they are expected to transition to textbooks developed within their respective provinces.16 The existing curriculum has faced criticism for its perceived irrelevance to local contexts, outdated content, and a strong tendency towards ideological indoctrination, with history and social studies textbooks often omitting controversial facts.11 There is a recognized and growing need to integrate contemporary social issues, human rights, constitutional principles, and climate change into the curriculum, starting from elementary levels, to foster a more inclusive and informed citizenry.29

    The Single National Curriculum (SNC): Objectives, Implementation, and Challenges

    The Single National Curriculum (SNC), introduced in 2020 under former Prime Minister Imran Khan, represents a significant policy initiative aimed at standardizing educational content and reducing disparities across public, private, and religious schools.1 Rooted in the “One Nation, One Curriculum” concept, the SNC mandates a unified curriculum structure, medium of instruction, and assessment system for grades 1-12, with the overarching goal of ensuring equitable educational opportunities nationwide.1 A notable feature of the SNC is its provision for religious minorities to study their own faiths—including Christianity, Hinduism, Sikhism, Baha’i, and Kalasha faiths—for grades 1-5, aiming for greater inclusivity.2

    Despite its ambitious goals, the implementation of the SNC has encountered substantial hurdles. These challenges include navigating Pakistan’s complex socio-cultural diversity, addressing existing infrastructure disparities, and adequately preparing educators to deliver competency-based education effectively.3 Initial outcomes have fallen short of expectations, largely due to discrepancies within the school system, insufficient teacher training, and persistent socioeconomic inequalities.3 Quantitative assessments further indicate a disparity in SNC success, with urban schools reporting greater success (mean=4.1) compared to rural schools (mean=3.5), highlighting the critical need for improved teacher training and resource allocation, particularly in underserved areas.3 A key criticism leveled against the SNC is its continued emphasis on rote learning and its limited adaptability to diverse contexts, which hinders its alignment with global educational priorities such as critical thinking, creativity, and sustainability.18

    The Single National Curriculum (SNC) as a policy ideal faces deep-seated structural realities. The SNC’s ambitious goal of unifying education and reducing disparities 1 is a direct policy response to the profound inequalities inherent in Pakistan’s multi-tiered education system.1 However, its implementation is severely hampered by existing structural realities: deep-seated socio-cultural diversity, pervasive infrastructure disparities, and inadequate teacher preparedness.3 The observed disparity in SNC success between urban and rural schools 3 directly reflects these pre-existing resource and infrastructure gaps. Furthermore, the SNC’s continued reliance on rote learning 18 contradicts its stated aim of equitable and quality education, suggesting that curriculum reform alone is insufficient to overcome entrenched pedagogical practices and assessment systems. The SNC, while conceptually sound in its pursuit of equity, highlights that systemic educational transformation requires more than just a new curriculum. It necessitates substantial and sustained investment in comprehensive teacher training, significant infrastructure development, and a fundamental shift in pedagogical approaches and assessment methods to genuinely move beyond rote learning. Without these complementary, integrated reforms, the SNC risks remaining an unfulfilled promise, potentially exacerbating existing inequalities rather than resolving them.

    Curriculum and the Cultivation of Critical Thinking Skills

    National curriculum documents and education policies in Pakistan formally acknowledge the importance of fostering critical thinking (CT) and problem-solving abilities among students.27 However, empirical studies reveal a significant gap between policy intent and classroom reality. For instance, text-based questions in subjects like Pakistan Studies are found to be “not conducive to developing critical thinking skills,” predominantly focusing on lower-order thinking levels such as remembering and understanding, rather than analysis, evaluation, or creation.27

    Current teaching practices and the prevailing examination system are heavily criticized for their over-reliance on lecture methods, teacher-centered pedagogy, and a singular focus on passing exams, thereby actively hindering the development of CT skills.28 Teachers themselves recognize the importance of CT but face significant barriers, including large class sizes, inadequate training in student-centered approaches, and immense pressure to achieve high exam results, which often prioritize rote memorization.28 These challenges extend to higher education, where universities are urged to promote critical thinking and prepare students for contemporary issues, yet the current curriculum often fails to meet modern education and research standards, contributing to a lack of quality education.31

    This situation points to a systemic impediment to critical thinking development. Despite explicit policy recognition of the importance of critical thinking 27, the reality on the ground—as evidenced by textbook content 27, prevailing teaching practices 28, and the dominant examination system 11—overwhelmingly favors rote learning. This creates a self-reinforcing negative feedback loop: exams primarily test recall, teachers consequently teach for memorization, and textbooks are designed to facilitate rote learning, effectively stifling the development of higher-order thinking skills. The “pressure to produce good exam results” 28 further entrenches this rote-based approach. This is not merely a pedagogical flaw but a systemic issue that impacts the competitiveness of graduates 32 and the nation’s capacity to address complex challenges effectively. Pakistan’s education system is structurally disincentivized from fostering critical thinking. Genuine reform requires a holistic and simultaneous approach that revises curricula to emphasize analytical skills, re-trains teachers in student-centered and inquiry-based pedagogies, and fundamentally overhauls the examination system to assess higher-order cognitive abilities. Without this integrated shift, Pakistani graduates will continue to lack the essential skills required for success in a rapidly evolving 21st-century knowledge economy.

    6. Major Challenges and Disparities in the Education Sector

    Access and Enrollment: The Out-of-School Children Crisis and Disparities

    A significant crisis plaguing Pakistan’s education system is the alarming number of out-of-school children, estimated at approximately 26.2 million. This issue disproportionately affects girls and children in rural areas.5 The percentage of out-of-school children notably increased following the COVID-19 pandemic, rising from 17% to 19% in rural areas and from 5.6% to 7.8% in urban areas.8 In rural Pakistan, 18% of children aged 5-16, totaling 4.8 million, are currently out of school, with the highest rates observed in Balochistan (36%) and Sindh (20%).12 While enrollment rates for children aged 5-16 in rural Pakistan have shown some improvement, reaching 82% 12, the Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) across all levels experienced a notable decrease from 2016-17 to 2021-22, with primary GER dropping by 21 percentage points to 76%.6

    Profound disparities persist across provinces, income levels, gender, and urban/rural divides.8 Gender disparities are particularly stark, with boys consistently having higher enrollment rates than girls at all levels.12 More girls (37.9%) are out-of-school compared to boys (26.1%) 7, and female literacy in tribal areas is as low as 9.5%.10 Girls in rural areas and children from the lowest-income households are consistently identified as the most vulnerable to educational exclusion.8 Income-based disparities are also significant, as the enrollment gap between the poorest and wealthiest children widened considerably during the pandemic.8 Overall literacy among the poor stands at 28% compared to 49% for the non-poor.11 Regionally, literacy rates vary drastically, from 96% in Islamabad to a mere 23% in Torghar District.10 Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) exhibits wide variation, from 111% in urban Punjab to 41% in rural Balochistan.11 Balochistan consistently records the lowest enrollment and highest out-of-school rates.6 The government has struggled to expand state education facilities sufficiently to meet the existing demand and bridge these disparities, with the annual increase in public primary schools falling short of requirements.11

    Quality of Education: Learning Outcomes, Infrastructure, and Teacher Effectiveness

    The quality of education remains a critical concern. Learning poverty is a pervasive issue, with 80% of children at late primary age lacking reading proficiency.7 Assessments indicate that only 55% of fifth-grade students can read a simple Urdu story, and fewer than half can solve basic division problems.4 In rural areas, the situation is particularly dire, with only 49% of Grade 5 children able to read a Grade 2 level story, 34% capable of basic subtraction, and 29% able to read English sentences.12

    Inadequate physical infrastructure further compromises learning environments. A significant portion of public educational institutions lack basic amenities: 28% have no boundary walls, 41% no drinking water, 57% no electricity, and 7% no building.11 Specifically for primary schools, 61% lack electricity, 97% no gas, 34% no drinking water, 95% no telephone, and 23% no textbooks.11 These conditions lead to uncomfortable and often unhygienic learning environments, especially in areas with extreme weather.11

    The education system also faces challenges related to insufficient and poorly trained teaching staff. There is a notable shortage of teachers, with an average teacher-to-school ratio of 2 in Sindh and Balochistan, often resulting in multi-grade, one-teacher schools in rural areas where a single teacher is responsible for multiple grades without specialized training.11 Teacher recruitment is heavily politicized, with appointments and transfers frequently based on political affiliations rather than merit.11 Teacher training institutes are often inefficient, and many teachers report learning little from their courses.11 Moreover, contractual teacher policies lack adequate incentives for performance-based promotion or for attracting qualified teachers to remote areas.11

    Weak monitoring and management compound these issues. Post-2001, monitoring functions were devolved to district governments, and School Management Committees (SMCs) were emphasized. However, the capacity of district monitoring staff has shown little improvement. District Education Officers (DEOs) are often overburdened, lack transport, and face political interference, hindering effective accountability.11 Monitoring staff frequently limit their roles to attendance checks rather than providing instructional support or pedagogical guidance.11

    Funding and Resource Allocation: Investment Gaps and Utilization Issues

    Historically, education in Pakistan has suffered from chronic underinvestment. In 2004, only 2% of GDP was allocated to education, significantly less than the 4% allocated for military spending.11 While an increase to 2.4% of GDP was announced for 2006-2007, its actual realization remained uncertain.11 In FY 2023-24, approximately 2% of the total National Public Sector Development Program was allocated to education 2, consistent with this historical pattern of underinvestment.11

    A disproportionately high percentage of the education budget is allocated to recurrent activities, predominantly salaries, leaving minimal funds for crucial development projects and infrastructure improvements.11 Furthermore, less than 50% of funds allocated for development expenditure at the federal Ministry of Education are actually utilized, with similar low utilization rates observed at provincial and district levels, indicating a weak absorption capacity for funds.11 The financial allocation and release system is complex: authority rests at federal and provincial levels, but actual utilization is highest at the district level. Provinces heavily rely on federal revenues, contributing only 10% of their own educational funding requirements.11

    The consistently low investment in education 11 directly translates into inadequate physical infrastructure 11, insufficient numbers of qualified teachers, and poor teacher training.11 These deficiencies, in turn, are primary drivers of poor student achievement and alarmingly low learning outcomes.4 Furthermore, the high proportion of the education budget consumed by recurrent activities, predominantly salaries 11, leaves minimal funds for crucial development projects, further hindering improvements in quality and access. The weak absorption capacity of allocated funds 11 means that even the limited available funds are not fully utilized, creating a vicious cycle where poor quality justifies continued low investment, and low investment perpetuates poor quality. Breaking this entrenched cycle requires not just a significant increase in overall funding but also a fundamental reform of financial management, allocation, and utilization mechanisms. Prioritizing development expenditure over recurrent costs, coupled with robust capacity building for effective fund absorption at all levels, is crucial. Without addressing these systemic financial and management inefficiencies, simply increasing the budget may not translate into tangible improvements in educational quality or access.

    Impact of External Factors: Climate Change and Pandemics

    Pakistan’s high vulnerability to climate change implies that educational disruptions are likely to increase in frequency and intensity.8 The devastating 2022 floods, for instance, damaged nearly 7,000 schools across the country 8 and affected 22% of households in rural areas.12 The COVID-19 pandemic also caused severe disruptions to schooling, leading to increased student drop-out rates, a rise in gender-based violence, child labor, and mental health issues among students.8 Although the federal ministry and provincial education departments launched several distance learning programs, including through broadcast media and online portals, the number of out-of-school children still increased during this period.8 Access to digital learning was highly unequal, with significant rural-urban disparities in cable connection access for broadcasted lessons, further exacerbating existing inequalities.8

    The research consistently demonstrates that educational disparities in Pakistan are not isolated but rather intersect and compound each other. Girls, rural children, and children from low-income households are disproportionately affected by lack of access and poor quality education.5 External shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change-induced floods 4, amplify these pre-existing inequalities, hitting “the poorest the hardest”.8 This pattern suggests that the education system’s vulnerabilities are deeply embedded within broader socio-economic structures and environmental risks, making it particularly susceptible to external pressures. A truly inclusive and effective education reform cannot operate in isolation. It must adopt a comprehensive, multi-sectoral approach that simultaneously addresses poverty, gender inequality, and climate vulnerability in conjunction with targeted educational interventions. Policies need to be specifically designed to reach the most marginalized populations, and resilience-building measures should explicitly consider the disproportionate impact of crises on already vulnerable groups to ensure equitable educational continuity.

    The following table provides a quantitative overview of key education indicators and highlights the significant disparities within Pakistan’s education system.

    Table 2: Key Education Indicators and Disparities in Pakistan

    IndicatorValueSource
    Literacy Rate (Total)62.85% (2023 Census)10
    Literacy Rate (Total)58.00% (2019)9
    Male Literacy Rate (2023 Census)68%10
    Female Literacy Rate (2023 Census)52.84%10
    Rural Literacy Rate54%2
    Urban Literacy Rate74%2
    Out-of-School Children (Total)26.2 million5
    Out-of-School Children (Rural, 5-16 years)18% (4.8 million)12
    Learning Poverty (May 2024)77% (children cannot read age-appropriate text by age 10)8
    Learning Poverty (Pre-COVID-19)80% (children at late primary age not proficient in reading)7
    Primary School Completion Rate67.5% (general)10
    Primary School Completion Rate (2022)68.1%20
    Primary Education Expenditure per child (PPP)USD 3977
    Education Spending as % of GDP (2004)2%11
    Education Spending as % of GDP (FY 2023-24)~2% of National Public Sector Development Program2
    Education Spending as % of GDP (2023)1.87%20

    7. Government Initiatives and Reform Efforts

    Pakistan Vision 2025: Educational Goals and Progress Assessment

    Launched in 2014, Pakistan Vision 2025 is a national strategic plan that designates education as a top priority for national development.2 The plan set ambitious educational goals to be achieved by 2025, including increasing primary school enrollment and graduation rates to 100%, alongside achieving a 90% literacy rate.2 Additionally, it aimed to boost higher education enrollment from 7% to 12% and significantly increase the number of Ph.D. scholars from 7,000 to 15,000.2

    However, a review of progress indicates a significant discrepancy between these ambitious goals and implementation realities. As the 2025 deadline approaches, the literacy rate has largely stagnated at approximately 60% since 2014-15 2, with the 2023 Census reporting 62.85% 10, falling considerably short of the 90% target. While higher education enrollment reached 11.22% in 2023 20, nearing the 12% target, the presence of 26.2 million out-of-school children 5 indicates that the 100% primary enrollment target remains highly challenging. Government allocation to education continues to be low, at approximately 2% of the National Public Sector Development Program in FY 2023-24 2, consistent with historical underinvestment.11 The “U.S.-Pakistan Knowledge Corridor Ph.D. Scholarship Program,” established in 2015, is a key initiative supporting these higher education goals, aiming to leverage international partnerships to achieve the Ph.D. scholar targets.2

    The ambitious goals of Pakistan Vision 2025, such as 100% primary enrollment and 90% literacy by 2025 2, are commendable. However, current data, including 26.2 million out-of-school children 5 and a literacy rate stagnating around 60% 2, indicates a substantial and widening gap between these aspirations and actual achievements as the deadline approaches. This suggests that while the strategic plan is well-intentioned, it may lack the necessary political commitment, sustained financial investment, or effective implementation mechanisms required to achieve such transformative goals. The repeated declaration of an “education emergency” 4 further underscores the systemic challenges that prevent the realization of these targets. This situation highlights that comprehensive national strategic plans, while crucial for setting direction, require robust, long-term, and adequately resourced implementation frameworks to translate vision into tangible progress.

    “Skills for All” Strategy and TVET Development

    In a targeted effort to enhance human capital, the Ministry of Federal Education & Professional Training introduced the national “Skills for All” strategy in 2021. This initiative specifically aims to address the needs of unskilled and economically challenged segments of the population.2 A core focus of the strategy is equipping youth, particularly girls, with green and digital skills, thereby preparing them for evolving job markets and enabling their contribution to sustainable industries.19 This initiative aligns strategically with global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to quality education, gender equality, and decent work opportunities.19 The involvement of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) as a key enabler underscores the government’s commitment to ensuring effective implementation and maximizing outreach, reflecting a broader strategic vision of reducing inequalities and advancing gender empowerment through education and skill development.19

    Public-Private Partnerships and Donor Interventions

    Pakistan has seen a significant push towards public-private partnerships (PPPs) in education, leading to innovative models aimed at improving access, equity, and bridging gender gaps.11 The ‘Adopt a School Programme’ is cited as one popular model for such collaborations.11 Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are increasingly contracted for services such as teacher training, which has brought about positive changes within the system. However, a concern exists regarding their potential loss of independence as monitors of the state education system when they become service providers for the government.11

    Donor agencies contribute a substantial portion, almost 30%, of the development budget for education. These funds are often channeled through individual projects, a major portion of which are implemented via NGOs.11 This approach frequently results in fragmented and uncoordinated interventions, potentially leading to resource wastage and exacerbating regional disparities, as some districts may receive many donor-funded projects while others receive none.11

    Recent Assessments and Evidence-Based Policy Reforms

    Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s declaration of an ‘Education Emergency’ in May 2023 underscored the urgent need for comprehensive reform to address the critical state of education.4 Recent assessments, such as the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2023, provide critical insights into the educational landscape. This large-scale survey, covering 151 rural and 123 urban districts and assessing 272,370 children 12, revealed that 18% of children aged 5-16 in rural areas are out of school. It also highlighted persistently low learning outcomes, with only 49% of Grade 5 children able to read a Grade 2 level story in Urdu/Siraiki, and a significant proportion (27%) of rural children attending private schools.12

    In response to these challenges, initiatives like the DARE-RC (Development and Research in Education – Research Center) project, supported by the British High Commission, aim to generate high-quality, accessible research to improve education in Pakistan and strengthen domestic research capacity for evidence-based policymaking.4 Its focus areas include teacher quality, inclusion (addressing girls’ enrollment, religious minorities, and disability), climate resilience, and system-level reforms such as teacher e-transfer policies and public-private partnerships.4 Ongoing reform discussions also address curriculum flaws, advocating for the integration of lessons on critical social issues, human rights, constitutional principles, and climate change to create a more relevant and inclusive educational experience.29

    8. Conclusion

    The education system in Pakistan is characterized by a structured framework from early childhood to tertiary levels, encompassing a diverse array of public, private, and religious institutions. While foundational to national progress and consistently declared a top government priority, the system is simultaneously plagued by deep-seated and systemic challenges.

    A significant challenge lies in the persistent gap between policy aspirations and on-the-ground realities. Despite ambitious goals outlined in initiatives like Pakistan Vision 2025, progress in areas such as literacy rates and universal primary enrollment remains significantly behind targets. This disparity suggests that policy formulation alone is insufficient; effective reform necessitates robust implementation, sustained political will, and transparent accountability.

    Furthermore, the education sector’s inherent fragility is evident in its vulnerability to external shocks, such as pandemics and climate-induced disasters. These crises disproportionately affect already marginalized groups, exacerbating existing inequalities in access and learning outcomes. Building resilience through disaster preparedness, climate-resilient infrastructure, and equitable distance learning capabilities is therefore paramount.

    The institutional segmentation into public, private, and madrassa schools, each with distinct curricula and mediums of instruction, contributes to profound educational inequality and poses challenges to social cohesion. While the Single National Curriculum attempts to unify standards, its implementation faces hurdles due to existing infrastructure disparities, inadequate teacher training, and a continued reliance on rote learning.

    Governance issues, particularly the unfulfilled promise of devolution following the 18th Amendment and persistent coordination gaps between federal and provincial authorities, further complicate reform efforts. The centralized examination system, which prioritizes memorization over critical thinking, actively hinders the development of higher-order cognitive skills, impacting the competitiveness of graduates.

    Underinvestment in education, coupled with inefficient resource allocation and weak absorption capacity, creates a self-perpetuating cycle of poor quality. A significant portion of the budget is consumed by recurrent expenditures, leaving insufficient funds for crucial development and quality enhancements.

    Addressing these multifaceted challenges requires a comprehensive and integrated approach. This involves not only increased and more efficient funding but also a fundamental overhaul of pedagogical practices and assessment systems to foster critical thinking. Moreover, policies must explicitly target intersecting vulnerabilities related to gender, income, and geography, ensuring that reforms reach the most disadvantaged populations. Ultimately, the transformation of Pakistan’s education system demands a sustained, evidence-based commitment that moves beyond declarations to implement deep structural reforms, fostering an inclusive, equitable, and quality learning environment for all.

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