Pakistan Affairs

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  • The West slides to the right | The Express Tribune

    PUBLISHED
    February 19, 2023


    KARACHI:

    Less than five months after taking the reins of power at the national level, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her coalition of conservatives have now secured clear election victories in the two wealthiest regions of the country.

    \”This result consolidates the centre-right and strengthens the work of the government,\” a triumphant Meloni posted on Twitter shortly after the results certified the right-wing bloc’s grip on power.

    This was not Europe’s first slip, and certainly not the last by any means. What began more than a decade ago is now a permanent feature of European politics – the rise of the far-right.

    Across the continent, once known for displaying resilience against communism, populists have been consolidating. If not absolute victories, they have certainly increased their presence and role in European power structures – with larger shares of vote in recent legislative polls.

    Resounding successes for right-wing parties in Sweden, and more recently in Italy, indicate that acceptance for their political views has increased considerably.

    According to Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world, both in Italy and Sweden, right-wing populist parties have made significant electoral gains. The Brothers of Italy party secured the highest vote share of any single party in recent polls. Similarly, culminating their steady gains over the last six parliamentary polls, the far-right Sweden Democrats, surfaced as the second-most popular party in Sweden’s recent elections – doubling their vote share since 2014.

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    Elsewhere in Europe, support for right-leaning parties or political movements has also increased significantly. According to Pew, the share of the vote going to the populists in Spain doubled between 2015-2019. And more recently, Vox, a relatively new national-conservative political party that entered the arena in 2013, saw its fortunes soar from 10 % to 15%.

    Two years ago, similar trends were seen in the Netherlands where right-leaning parties amassed around 16% of the vote – something the Dutch had not witnessed in more than a decade of parliamentary polls.

    Populists have also strengthened their grip on power in Eastern Europe, which once used to be a stronghold of communism. Particularly, in Hungary’s case, where far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has become the country’s longest serving leader since the collapse of the Soviet influence, the European parliament itself was forced to raise the red flag, declaring it a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy.

    While right-wing parties are delighted over such victories across Europe, leaders in Berlin and Paris have released guarded statements in response to the upheaval that has the potential to fundamentally change Europe’s course and eventually its destiny.

    In a terse statement issued by the Élysée Palace, French President, Emmanuel Macron, said he respected the electoral decision of the Italian people. On the other hand, his prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, said that her country would monitor human rights – and, in particular, access to abortion rights, very closely.

    Such electoral convulsions, experts believe, can become common across Europe in the future and with that the deterioration of democratic standards, fundamental rights and the rule of law can also become more pronounced – particularly in countries being governed by far-right parties.

    “For them issues like human rights, immigration and climate change are an anathema. Far-right parties do not care about such causes and issues,” cautioned Professor Ashok Swain, a Professor of Peace and Conflict Research at Sweden’s Uppsala University.

    The politics of right-wing populists, according to Professor Swain, finds its strength in the ‘otherisation’ and ‘demonisation’ of migrants who ‘infiltrate their straight social structure’ where one group dominates. “The decline in the ideological strength and abandonment of values once openly defended, has enabled the far-right to create space and acceptance for its brand of politics,” added the Uppsala-based academic.

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    Not too long ago, the European Commission’s (EC) ideological strength was put to test by Hungary’s Orbán. During a speech in Romania last year, the far-right leader argued that countries where European and non-European people mingle, can no longer qualify as nations. Hungary, Orbán boasted, is not ‘mixed race’. The remarks left Brussels tongue-tied – so much so that the EC declined to comment. But the ordeal for European policymakers did not end here. A few months after the controversial remarks, Orbán tightened the abortion laws, which according to the BBC made the process of pursuing a termination more bureaucratic for pregnant women.

    With populists polling well in several countries, a right-wing resurgence in Europe appears to be inevitable. The game-changing upsurge in support for nationalist such as the Brothers of Italy party, and Sweden Democrats, shows that Europe is no longer immune to hard-right populists.

    “For those following the far-right, to see the rise of such groups, including political parties, throughout Europe is not surprising,” said Dr. Heidi Beirich, who is the co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE).

    “Meloni’s election in Italy, followed the far-right Sweden Democrats taking power, the far-right National Rally increasing its representation in France, and in Hungary, Fidesz, the party of far-right prime minister Viktor Orban, continues to bolster its strength. Meanwhile in Ireland, the anti-immigrant Irish Freedom Party continues to grow. And, in the US, despite his support for far-right extremism and his increasingly conspiratorial views, Trump continues to enjoy widespread support as other far-right politicians jump into the election ring,” cautioned Dr. Beirich.

    When asked about the surge in the popularity of radical right parties, Beirich said: “Around the world, these political players learn from each other, share tactics, and exploit social media to achieve their ends.”

    Numerous far-right groups, she pointed, used COVID as a way to expand their movements, especially by tapping into fear as well as lockdown protests.

    “That’s the thing about the far-right, they will use whatever they can to recruit people into their movements. Right now, we are sadly seeing that happen in many countries that have an influx of immigrants, something that will continue with climate change,” the Expert on right-wing extremism added.

    On the up globally, right-leaning political parties in Europe – in particular have much more to capitalise on and celebrate these days. According to Dr. Beirich, they tap into concerns regarding legitimate prevailing issues.

    “One thing that we may see more of is that far-right leaders will tap into the concern people have regarding legitimate issues such as high cost of living and inaccessibility of affordable housing and blame the “other”, for example refugees and other immigrants, especially those who are Muslim or have darker skin,” she said. These Europe-wide trends, Dr. Beirich warned, will get worse.

    “With the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and climate change, this will not get any better. To blame immigrants is ridiculous of course, but in doing so, these far-right leaders simplify the problem, find somebody to blame, and build their base,” she added.

    But Europe’s right-wing nightmare does not end here. According to Daphne Halikiopoulou, Professor of Comparative Politics at University of Reading, Europe’s right-wing has been modifying institutional structures of European democracies and will continue to do so.

    Halikiopoulou, who has conducted extensive research that exposes far-right parties, wrote in a paper published by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), a German political foundation, that the continuing rise of right-wing populism may be stalled in some countries but the overall level of support is still strong. This trend, Halikiopoulou said, indicates that the challenge to liberal democracies is not over.

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    How do they operate?

    History is riddled with accounts that link the rise of the far-right to political and economic crises and to general public discontent. That may have been the case in the 1930s, propelling Adolf Hitler to power in Weimar Germany.

    But the contemporary right-wing parties in Europe have been steadily gaining momentum, increasing their electoral share and political power in the continent for more than two decades, crawling from the margins into the political mainstream. This rapid increase in political share, experts believe, has emerged as a significant threat to Europe’s unity and liberal democracies across the continent appear more vulnerable.

    Observers watching Europe\’s electoral landscape change believe the level of threat posed by the far-right may vary depending on the country and degree of their power.

    “Throughout history, we have seen politicians divide people and pit constituencies against each other to build their base and stay in power. We’ve seen authoritarian leaning politicians spread hate and extremism – oftentimes via social media to reach more people –to build their base. This is an extremely dangerous tactic in part because it is so effective,” said Dr. Beirich.

    Uppsala University’s Professor Swain, who has published innumerable articles on the subject, believes that Europe’s liberal democracies are facing an existential threat in the form of right-wing nationalists.

    “The strength of the far-right parties has forced European countries to take measures which go against the liberal value system they\’ve advocated for so long. Matters related to migrants, security and climate have become more susceptible to influence by political extremists,” said Dr. Swain.

    “Once they garner domestic support, right-wing parties tend to influence all domains, including foreign policy,” the Sweden-based academic explained. Under pressure from the far-right, immigration policies of Europe, he pointed, have changed significantly. “Perhaps such policies are modified to appease the right-wing parties within Europe.”

    “UK decided to exit or end its union with Europe, Iceland withdrew its bid to join the EU. A champion of migrant-friendly policies, liberal Europe is being cowed into submission,” Professor Swain added.

    Can this trend be reversed?

    For the far-right, there is no shortage of issues that they can exploit for political gains. The conflict in Ukraine continues to provide them with newer and more divisive debates. To reverse their momentum, experts believe, countries will have to make a stronger commitment to the democratic values that appear to have weakened over time.

    “To reverse the decay caused by the right-wing, countries that have been known for being democracies will have to return to their values and also support the policies which encourage other countries to remain democratic and respect basic human rights,” said Dr. Swain.

    “Frankly, I don\’t see that happening. Now, it is more about who belongs to whose camp. That is what we see in this new age of global power politics rather than powerful democratic countries trying to strengthen their fraternity. The fragmentation of the western world and its value system is part of the problem. There is less agreement on the common good as it was some decades ago,” the Uppsala-based professor cautioned.

    Concurring with Dr.Swain’s views, GPAHE’s expert on right-wing extremism, Dr. Beirich stressed the need for global alliances that promote stronger democracies and democratic values. “We believe the movement to support inclusive democracy is larger and stronger than far-right movements.”

    “Far-right movements, and the hate and extremism they embody, are a threat to freedom, safety, and democracy everywhere. One of the best ways to stop these movements from spreading is to expose them. We need to ensure that the public, policy makers, tech companies, the media, and other stakeholders have the tools to identify far-right actors and movements so they can effectively counter them,” said Dr. Beirich.

    According to the expert on extremism, tech companies are part of the problem. “They can make a choice to be part of the solution. For instance, YouTube still allows the international network Generation Identity, a French far-right group that carries out attacks on young Arabs, and makes Nazi salutes to use its platform and make money from their hatred. Similarly, Facebook and Twitter recently allowed former US president Donald Trump to return, even though the dangers of that decision are clear. We’ve documented how the companies continue to allow political leaders to spread hate and disinformation, contrary to the companies’ own rules and promises, which further undermines democracy,” said Dr. Beirich, who is a veteran of the Southern Poverty Law Center, one of the most prestigious civil rights organizations in the US.

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    What is working in their favour?

    Waning commitment to the commonly agreed values, weaker opposition – that usually fails to present a unified front, and lastly, the far-right appears to be profiting from the increasing public dissatisfaction on a raft of issues – particularly – immigration, economy, energy, borders and cost of living.

    According to Professor Swain, lack of ideological strength and coherence allows such groups to thrive. “Generally, the new era of global power politics has created space for such parties and ideologies. The fragmentation of the western world is part of the problem. There is less agreement on the common good as it was some decades ago.”

    Long-term consequences

    Long-term consequences of the spread of far-right authoritarianism include increase in hate-motivated violence and killing, the restrictions of human rights as well as the continuation of white supremacy and racism infiltrating societies.

    “Ultimately, the rise of extremism threatens entire democracies,” warned Dr.Beirich.

    “We are deeply concerned that the more the far-right infiltrates politics in US, Europe and beyond, people will experience great reduction in access to human rights as well as face racially or other hate motivated violence,” said the expert, while elaborating her concerns about Europe’s lurch to the right.

    “You don’t need to look far to see how the far-right has influenced policy decisions already, for example when it comes to equality, the treatment of immigrants, and the efforts to restrict access to abortions. Not to mention, the incredible threat of violence inspired by far-right movements including “the great replacement” conspiracy theory that has inspired racially motivated killings around the world,” she concluded



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  • What will happen to Imran Khan? | The Express Tribune

    PUBLISHED
    February 19, 2023


    LAHORE:

    My brief encounter with Imran Khan on February 15 was a reminder why millions of people continue to support him despite the many, some highly disturbing, events of the last ten months. In a deeply polarising political environment that if stretched a tad more would break like cheap elastic, Khan seems to have morphed into a national hero who is standing tall, metaphorically, against all institutional wrongs and state’s excesses. For a country riven with ideological and other differences, a sense of collective injustice acts as a unifying force. Pakistan, post-April 10, 2022, is a state in upheaval. Khan’s ouster was the first piece in a flimsy stack of dominoes.

    The event at Khan’s house in Zaman Park, Lahore, was his meeting with foreign media correspondents and me. Before I proceed: I’m not a journalist but there is a large number of people who knowingly or in ignorance consider me a journalist because of my past work in media and my current column writing. Since 2018, I’ve been writing a weekly article for Gulf News, UAE. Despite my constant and vociferous and capitalised insistence that an opinion writer who merely contributes to a media house on a per-article honorarium is not a journalist, I’m loved and hated and respected and trolled and admired and despised—in unequal proportions—for my non-existent journalism. Heavens may fall if people were to accept the notion that I might be who I say I am—NOT A JOURNALIST.

    On Lahore’s Canal Road, parallel to Zaman Park, was a long row of tented booths, each one decorated with Pakistan’s flag, Tehreek-e-Insaf flag and banners displaying photos of Khan and a local, provincial or national PTI leader or group, “host” of that particular space. In that area, food is served, speeches are made, discussions are held, and comments are made to media. Each one of those present there is a supporter of Imran Khan. He is not in front of them, but they are there for him.

    For the first time in the history of Pakistan’s convoluted political landscape is an outpouring of support for a leader who is presently hailed as the sole sign of the power of democracy in Pakistan. In Khan — pitted against a ruling alliance of dozen-plus parties, propped up by the omnipotent Establishment — they see a lone crusader who is willing to fight to the end for supremacy of vote and power of the aam aadmi. In their united support, they have emerged as the emblem of one categorical message: they are with Khan, without any ifs and buts.

    Outside Khan’s home in Zaman Park, PTI workers and supporters form the “human chain” to protect Khan. In their words, Khan is their “red line”. Their stance is unambiguous: they respect the law, but they will not let the incumbent government arrest Khan on any allegation that is trumped up and lacks any legal validity. Their narrative is simple: more than sixty cases, including terrorism and sedition allegations, against Khan are nothing but State’s witch-hunt to persecute a leader who contrary to the misplaced assumptions of Those Who Shall Not Be Named and their latest “puppets” is the most popular leader of Pakistan, and who will win a clear majority in the general elections due this year.

    A voluntary assembly of supporters that appeared on the Canal Road leading to Khan’s home and the area around his home congregated weeks ago, and they don’t seem to be in any mood to leave. Pakistan is used to a long-standing culture of political rallies and electoral campaigns, but this spontaneous display of love and support for Khan is a unique phenomenon. Leaders frequently announce that workers and supporters should assemble in unity or in protest or to show solidarity for various reasons, but rarely is a large number seen outside a political rally. In the last ten months that has changed, but only for Imran Khan. On one tweet of one top leader of PTI, thousands of PTI supporters gather in Zaman Park.

    These PTI humans are not coerced. They are not paid any money. They are not brought to Zaman Park in hired vehicles. Their support is genuine, their support has longevity, their support is dil se.

    On the night between February 16-17, the same passion was seen in PTI workers and supporters when the news of Khan’s impending arrest was shared on social and electronic media. PTI workers and supporters work on the simple belief: Imran Khan is not guilty of any crime, and any effort to arrest him is a draconian measure to imprison him to stop him from demanding general elections, which according to political pundits, PTI is all set to win.

    Children, teenagers, young men and women, the underprivileged and the wealthy, homemakers and professional women, the elderly and the ailing, the middle aged and the middle class, students and businessmen, retired faujis, the illiterate and the highly educated, the progressive and the conservative — Khan’s supporters do not have a uniform look, but they are all united under one banner. The flag of Pakistan. No longer is the struggle merely for Khan’s return to power. For them, the fight is now for the survival of Pakistan.

    On April 9, 2022, Pakistan Democratic Movement’s orchestrated ouster of Khan was a thinly veiled coup through a vote of no confidence, and it set a series of events that elicited an unprecedented public reaction. In the backdrop of the ugly history of the military coup against Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and his judicial assassination, and dismissals of elected prime ministers (late Benazir Bhutto twice, Nawaz Sharif thrice, and Yousaf Raza Gillani once), the removal of another elected prime minister was the wake-up call for a mostly apathetic nation.

    Khan’s ouster was a shocking reminder that not much had changed in the power dynamics of Pakistan despite the Establishment’s constant reassurances of non-interference in civilian matters, and the longstanding avowals of two main political parties, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and Pakistan People’s Party, to uphold democratic values, having been burnt too many times in their attainment and retaining of power with the tacit or blatant support of non-civilian powers. Reasons varied but the ousters bore terrifying similarities. What they did to Khan was a repeat performance of what had happened to them too many times. Pakistan was shocked at their jubilation.

    The ouster, purportedly, had a three-point agenda: re-nomination of COAS Bajwa in November 2022, dismissal of cases against the top leadership of PML-N and PPP, and creation of a favourable electoral mechanism.

    Inflation and other governance weaknesses of the PTI government in March 2022 were the reasons used as justification for staging a vote of no-confidence against Khan’s government in April 2022. At that time, the general view across Punjab, Pakistan’s largest electorate, and other parts of the country was of disillusionment. Khan’s voters were disheartened, and Khan’s detractors were loud in their we-knew-he-would-not-be-good-for-Pakistan. If Khan’s government had been “allowed” to complete its five-year term, ending in August 2023, the mainstream consensus was that he would not return to power in 2023. PTI government’s inability to curb inflation was cited as its worst failure.

    Reuters on February 15, 2023, reported: “The consumer price index rose 27.5% year-on-year in January, its highest in nearly half a century.”

    Reuters on February 15, 2023, also reported: “Inflation in Pakistan could average 33% in the first half of 2023 before trending lower, and a bailout from the International Monetary Fund alone is unlikely to put the economy back on track, a senior economist with Moody\’s Analytics told Reuters.”

    Pakistan changed in ways, perceptible and imperceptible, after Khan’s ouster on April 9, 2022. PTI’s parliamentarians resigned from the National Assembly. (For ten months Pakistan’s parliament has been operational with a non-existent opposition, putting a huge question mark on the veracity and viability of all its actions.). Protests were seen across Pakistan. Khan’s vote bank rallied. These who voted for him and were uncertain of voting for him again became unambivalent. Those who had never voted for him became his supporters. Khan’s first protest rally in Peshawar on April 13, 2022 had a huge attendance. PTI held sixty rallies across Pakistan. Every rally of Khan in 2022 had a number that broke PTI’s own records of gigantic participation.

    On November 3, 2022, Khan was wounded in an assassination attempt at Wazirabad’s Allah­wala Chowk during his “Haqeeqi Azadi” march to Islamabad. PTI worker Moazzam Gondal was killed while trying to catch the hitman who had shot at Khan’s container. Thirteen PTI leaders were injured. Pakistan went into a state of shock and grief.

    Three months later, Khan is still in the process of recuperation, a brace on his right leg and instructions from his medical team to rest until complete healing of his wounds. When I saw him on February 15, he seemed to be in high spirits despite his limited movement.

    On February 16, Dawn reported: “A Lahore High Court division bench on Thursday dismissed for non-prosecution a petition of PTI chairman Imran Khan seeking protective bail in a criminal case by the Islamabad police, whereas a single bench allowed him an opportunity to appear on Monday in another petition of bail in a similar case.”

    Earlier, the legal team of Khan informed the honourable court that Khan’s absence from court was due to his “medical issues”.

    The chants of the PTI supporters at Zaman Park articulate the emotions of millions of Pakistanis who witnessed every part of the chaos unleashed in Pakistan in the last ten months. Dark things that marked the blurring of many lines of common decency, humanity, importance of law, and the sanctity of the Constitution of Pakistan.

    On April 10, 2022, a few hours after Khan’s ouster, unidentified persons raided the home of Arslan Khalid, former prime minister Imran Khan’s focal person on digital media.

    On April 11, PDM’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif was sworn in.

    On April 14, DG ISPR Babar Iftikhar announced in a press conference that “some stability was returning to the country.”

    On May 22, Dr Shirin Mazari, one of PTI’s most vocal leaders, was “arrested” for an old land dispute. Her daughter labelled it a “kidnapping”.

    On May 24, police crackdown on PTI leaders and workers began. It was to stop them from joining Khan’s long march.

    On May 25, police baton-charged, fired teargas on and arrested peaceful PTI protesters, including children, women, the elderly.

    On August 9, Dr Shahbaz Gill, Khan’s former chief of staff, was arrested. In custody, he was physically, emotionally, and sexually tortured. The allegation was “sedition and inciting the public against state institutions”.

    On October 12, Senator Azam Swati was arrested for a “controversial” tweet against COAS Bajwa. He was “beaten and stripped naked”, and videos of his private moments with his wife were recorded and sent to his daughter.

    On October 16, 2022, Imran Khan won seven out of nine seats in by-elections.

    On October 23, one of Pakistan’s most prominent and most loved journalists Arshad Sharif was assassinated in Kenya. Sharif was forced into exile in August. BBC reported: “As a backer of former Prime Minister Khan and a critic of the military, Sharif had made many enemies. Before he left Pakistan, he faced possible sedition charges and his TV programme was banned after suggesting that the military was involved with the removal of Mr Khan in April.”

    On January 12, 2023, the PTI government won the vote of confidence in the Punjab Assembly.

    On January 14, on the instruction of PTI’s chairperson Imran Khan, Punjab Assembly was dissolved.

    On January 18, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly was dissolved.

    The dissolutions were a political manoeuvre to apply pressure on the incumbent government to announce the date for general elections.

    On January 25, PTI’s spokesperson Fawad Chaudhry was “arrested” for “allegedly inciting violence against officials of the Election Commission of Pakistan.” Handcuffed, a black cloth covered his face when brought to court during his almost week-long incarceration.

    Persecution of social media users, mostly PTI supporters, now includes arrests, instant judgements, and sentences of three-year imprisonment.

    The questions abound. Will Imran Khan be arrested or not? What purpose will his arrest serve? What tactic will work to impede the growing popularity of Khan? Will elections for Punjab and KP assemblies be held in the constitutionally mandated time? Will general elections be held on time?

    Pakistan awaits.

    At the end of the session with Khan on February 15, I said to him: “If they imprison you, you will definitely win the election.”

    Imran Khan laughed.



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  • Could Turkey’s deadliest quake shake up Erdogan’s future? | The Express Tribune

    PUBLISHED
    February 12, 2023

    It was the deadliest and strongest earthquake in Turkey since 1939. Measuring 7.8 on the Richter scale, when it shook the ground in southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria early Monday morning, tremors were reported from as far and wide as Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece, Israel and Palestine. News then poured in of a second quake, measuring 7.5, just nine hours later.

    In its wake lies nothing but destruction. By the fifth day, the number of those who died in Turkey alone exceeded 21,000 – the total rose above 25,000, after adding fatalities from Syria. More than 78,000 people have also been reported injured so far, according to data from both countries.

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    An aerial view shows damaged and collapsed buildings, in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake in Hatay, Turkey February 10, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Umit Bektas

    As Turkey reels from the aftermath of the earthquake, many people in disaster-hit regions still remain missing, presumed buried beneath the rubble with hopes of survival fading away fast. As rescue and relief efforts proceed at slow pace due to a number of challenges, the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is drawing more flak than ever before over disaster ‘mismanagement’ and social media curbs.

    The Turkish economy was already under immense pressure before the calamity hit. In the aftermath of the quake, it now faces the huge costs that come with rebuilding. As Turkish voices contextualise the disaster, they wonder: could this be a turning point for Erdogan’s regime?

    ‘The rubble is silent now’

    Speaking to The Express Tribune, Rabia Çetin, an independent journalist and International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) member based in Istanbul, highlighted the uneven pace of rescue efforts following the disaster due to range of factors.

    “I first observed the work in the province of Şanlıurfa, in southeast Turkey. There were around 170 casualties at that point in the area… but the [rescue] work was relatively better,” she shared. “Right after that, I came to Adıyaman, which is one of the three cities that suffered great devastation. Because the telecommunication building in the city was destroyed, the people here could not connect, and search and rescue teams arrived very late.”

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    A woman holding a child sits by a collapsed building as search for survivors continues, in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake in Hatay, Turkey, February 10, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Umit Bektas

    According to Cetin, it took crew and equipment until the third day after the calamity to reach Adıyaman. “As I speak, on the fifth day after the earthquake, search and rescue efforts continue,” she said. “Unfortunately, there still is not enough equipment and the rescue efforts cannot move as fast as they should. Therefore, the loss of life is rising rapidly.”

    “The rubble, from beneath which you could hear the screams and cries for help, are silent now. They show no signs of human life,” she added.

    Even after bodies are pulled out, the challenges keep mounting, said Cetin. “The corpses are kept on the pavements in the city for a while. Everything is incomplete and insufficient, which increases the dimensions of the disaster,” she added.

    “In short, this city has experienced destruction similar to a war zone, leaving thousands dead and fatally injured. They [the government and rescue workers] are trying to cope, but it’s not enough,” noted Cetin. According to her, even President Erdogan, during his visit to Adıyaman, was compelled to admit the country had been unable to bring the rescue operation to the desired level.

    “I think international aid is very helpful. In the city where I am today, there were aid teams from Georgia, Canada, the United States and China. These teams have the necessary equipment, accelerating the digging. Therefore, any kind of help is essential at this point,” she added.

    Trapped and cold

    Beyond the slow pace of rescue work, biting winter and terrible weather posed additional threats to survivors, especially those still trapped, said Washington DC-based Turkish journalist Ilhan Tanir.

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    Zubeyde Kahraman (R), whose sister Zeynep, 40, is being rescued by ISAR Germany, waits by a fire with her family during the rescue operation that ISAR Germany say has taken almost 50 hours, as the search for survivors continues, in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake in Kirikhan, Turkey February 10, 2023. REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw

    “Food, clothing, and shelter – that is what the people need in this terrible weather,” he said. “People stuck under the rubble are dying because of the cold weather. Those who managed to get out from under the rubble, with the help of their relatives or friends or by their own efforts, have been out in the open for several days.”

    Millions of people are still in dire need, Tanir said, acknowledging that it is not easy to send rescue teams to every mound of rubble in the disaster area. “[But] you look at social media, and there are so many requests from [affected] people for food, clothing, and a place to stay… [They] are asking, why the Red Cross and the Turkish agency dealing with emergencies and disaster are still unable to reach the central locations.”

    Cetin, too, stressed the need for shelter and warmth. “That is the most urgent need of people in the region. They need tents as well as heaters,” she said. “Hygiene equipment and mobile toilets are vitally needed as well, as are medical supplies,” the journalist added.

    Disaster zones disconnected

    Although the sheer magnitude of the earthquake in Turkey greatly hindered connectivity in the worst-hit regions, Turkish voices said the problem was exacerbated by Internet and social media restrictions the government had imposed.

    “All earthquake zones have been equally affected from the beginning, from the restrictions imposed by the government throughout the country,” said Cetin, although she pointed out that Adıyaman has also experienced the negative effects of the collapse of the city\’s infrastructure in addition to government-induced restrictions.

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    A woman looks on as rescuers search for survivors under the rubble following an earthquake in Hatay, Turkey, February 7, 2023. PHOTO: REUTERS

    “No quick actions, like setting up mobile base stations immediately, were taken to restore the communication channels cut due to the demolition of the telecommunication building in Adıyaman,” she said. “Since the onset of this disaster, no eagerness has been shown to solve the problem.”

    “It would be inappropriate to blame just the unwillingness and incompetency of the operators, there is more to it,” Cetin added.

    Tanir, meanwhile, termed the restrictions shameful. “This week, they restricted Twitter and did not deny it. After such a disaster, you may think that there could be some technical issue, that there could be some kind of outage. But social media was restricted because people were complaining about the poor response or the lack of response,” he said.

    “People were asking for rescue teams so that they can save their loved ones, their friends, their families, and what did the government do in response? It restricted social media. While thousands across the country are crying for help, trying to save their loved ones, the Erdogan regime is busy protecting its own image,” he lamented.

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    Rescuers carry a woman after she was evacuated from under a collapsed building following an earthquake in Kahramanmaras, Turkey, February 7, 2023. REUTERS/Suhaib Salem

    Responding to a question about Elon Musk’s offer to set up his Starlink web service in the disaster zones, Tanir said it was obvious why the government has not taken up that offer. “They don\’t want the citizens to voice their concerns.”

    Erdogan under fire

    Speaking about political ramifications from the disaster and how it was being managed, Cetin noted that the government in Turkey has been losing support in public opinion polls due to its inability to solve problems for a long time.

    But while the Erdogan regime’s failings pertaining to economic policies, weak democracy and legal record, and human rights violations were drawing ire, according to her, never before had the lack of coordination and the delay in the response seen during the earthquake so clearly been revealed.

    “In Adıyaman, where the government received almost two-thirds of the votes in the last elections, earthquake survivors said: ‘I always voted for [Erdogan’s] AKP in the previous elections, but they cannot ask for votes from us anymore.’ This is a common sentiment out here. The ruling party faces a huge electoral challenge,” she said.

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    “So far, the government has been doing very poorly,” shared Tanir. “I was following the situation in the initial hours very closely and it took maybe about eight to 10 hours for people to understand the seriousness of the situation. People were waiting for Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), which was not prepared even though as we all know, Turkey lies on the fault line.”

    “You can’t change the location of the country, but you can definitely prepare for the disaster and perhaps even prepare to minimise the losses,” he added.

    According to Tanir, after the catastrophic earthquake in northwestern Turkey that killed more than 18,000 people in 1999, the government imposed an earthquake tax that was meant to corral billions of dollars\’ worth of disaster prevention and relief. “People have been paying for this for the last 23 years just so that when a disaster like this hits the country, everybody is prepared, and the disaster emergency agency is ready to deploy all of its resources,” he said.

    “Yes, the scale of the disaster is beyond anything imaginable. But you need to have a system and mechanism in place to deal with this,” the Washington-based journalist added. “Everybody is still complaining that the rescue teams arrived too late. Foreign rescue teams are able to arrive in cities much faster than Turkey’s own rescue workers, and I\’m not talking about far-flung villages; I’m talking about cities.”

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    Pakistan has flown three C130 military transport planes to Adana province. PHOTO: TWITTER/@ndmapk

    With no sign of rescue workers in several cities almost a week following the earthquake, Tanir said it was no surprise to see the anger on people’s faces.

    “The government, for some time, has been using all its resources to suppress free speech. Even though the president has fully armed propaganda machinery, it is very difficult for him to control the narrative due to the economic situation and due to social media,” the journalist shared. “But as people try to save lives, the government tries to save its own image – the president, in a statement, said his administration was recording the names of his critics.”

    “Press freedom is already at its lowest. They have arrested journalists and reporters while they\’re trying to cover the disaster area. This government will be judged very harshly in the not-too-distant future when the country is free from their grip,” he added, citing a quote by former Turkish president Süleyman Sami Demirel. “Administrations go the way they come, Demirel once said. So, this administration has a lot to deal with after the earthquake.”

    The quake, beyond the immediate destruction, is an economic disaster and will cause instability, he noted. “We are seeing all the symptoms in Turkey that we saw in 1999. The response to the 1999 quake eliminated those who were ruling back then. Political parties were sent to the graveyard in the 2002 polls.”

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    People work at the site of a collapsed building, in the aftermath of the deadly earthquake, in Kahramanmaras, Turkey, February 8, 2023. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

    According to Dr Tuba Eldem, an associate professor of political science, Fenerbahce University, Turkey’s upcoming elections, which will take place on the republic’s centennial, will be the most critical election in the history of Turkish democracy.

    “The Turkish people will elect a leader that will mould the republic’s second century and at the same time, decide whether Turkey should remain committed to a transatlantic alliance of democracies,” she said. “Political regime theories suggest that the incumbents’ chances of leaving office declines considerably if a leader rules for longer than three terms and a change in power then becomes more likely through external shocks.”

    According to Dr Eldem, Turkey’s consistent economic decline since 2016, exacerbated by the pandemic and unorthodox monetary policy, placed a heavy burden on the Turkish economy. “The devastating earthquake is likely to put further strain on already limited government resources and limit the redistributive capacity of the populist government led by President Erdogan.”

    That said, Tanir said there was a need to exercise caution before making any political predictions. “It is still the early days of the disaster. We will see more clearly in the coming weeks,”

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    A man stands in front of a collapsed building after an earthquake in Osmaniye, Turkey February 6, 2023. PHOTO: REUTERS

    “This administration already faces a raft of issues from the economy to internal discord and polarisation before this disaster. Let’s see how this administration performs in the upcoming election. Public opinion, as reported by the media, is against them,” he cautioned. “It’s difficult to say what will happen next week or next month. Hard to even say if Turkey will be able to hold elections – Erdogan may even declare a state of emergency, which can lead to postponing the polls.”

    Economic bomb

    Speaking to The Express Tribune about the economic impact the quake has on Turkey’s already ailing economy, Selva Baziki, a Bloomberg economist who focuses on Turkey and Sweden, said in the immediate term, the disaster could cost Erdogan’s government somewhere up to two and a half per cent of GDP.

    “But if we were to include the rebuilding part, which obviously extends over a longer period of time, that could go all the way up to five and a half per cent of GDP in terms of cost of the public budget,” she pointed out.

    According to Baziki, who has also previously served as a director of macro financial analysis at the Central Bank of Turkey, the country’s public finances start from a relatively good position to begin with. “Just last year, I think the latest reading was negative 1.4 per cent of GDP in terms of the deficit. The target for this year was about negative 3.5 per cent of GDP as a budget deficit. So, I think the government is actually in a good position to weather this catastrophe, in terms of what strain it would have on the public purse.”

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    People sit around a fire next to rubble and damages near the site of a collapsed building in the aftermath of an earthquake, in Kahramanmaras, Turkey, February 8, 2023. REUTERS/Suhaib Salem

    “Now, as for the longer term, of course, we\’ll have to see. The humanitarian cost is really going to be at the top of the agenda going forward,” she cautioned.

    Baziki said there\’s going to be a lot of spending that the government has planned to do in the lead up to the election that\’s going feed into further inflation. “I\’m not even considering the spending that we will have to do for the earthquake, that is a must. I\’m not going to go into the inflationary effects of that, but just the plans, and also the on-going situation will take us, in our calculations, above 30% inflation at the end of the year, more than six times the central bank’s target.”

    Attempts by the Erdogan to stabilise or strengthen the lira have not worked, according to Baziki. “The plan to bring about some form of stability has been in place since December 2021 and the president reportedly claimed that they would yield results within six months. The policy rate was lowered from 14 to 9 last year, even though inflation soared above 80%. But that did not translate into higher investment capital formation in the third quarter last year,” she shared.

    “We were supposed to have an export boom. Exports grew by 13% in 2022, but that was dwarfed by 34% growth in imports. The economy printed an annualised Current Account Deficit of $45 billion in November. The abundance of foreign currency was supposed to have strengthened the lira. In reality, the currency has been down about 29% year to date against the dollar, the second worst performer among key emerging markets after crisis-ridden Argentina. The government was hoping to record lower inflation well. Instead, Turkey reached a 24-year peak in October with 85.5% of inflation.”

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    “So, clearly, the government’s economic approach was not delivering the desired results before the earthquake and they are generating a lot of discontent among voters,” the economist added. This is now compounded by the flak the Erdogan regime is drawing for its handling of the disaster from Turkish citizens.

    Baziki said the Turkish economy is in need of a high level of external financing. “The economy has nearly $190 billion external debt due within a year, and we calculate the central bank’s net reserves at -53.8bn USD for December. Sure, we can keep this going for a while, but in the end, you have this debt due, that is during the year, and it needs external funds to finance that, so more borrowing.”

    Turkey and Erdogan’s future

    With Turkey looking at rebuilding and rescue costs ranging from anywhere between $50 billion and $70 billion, Turkish experts wondered how the country’s upcoming elections would fare, if they were even held.

    “I don\’t know how they\’re going to carry out the election now, but they have to do it,” stressed Tanir. He said the challenge for the present government was massive. “Are they going to campaign for the election during these circumstances? I don\’t think they can, while millions of people are under such difficult circumstances.”

    However, the Washington-based journalist pointed out that Turkey is home to 85 million people, only 10 to 12 million of whom reside in the disaster-hit zone. “So, Erdogan is damned if he does [campaign] and damned if he doesn’t.”

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    Fenerbahce University’s Dr Eldem suggested that Erdogan’s regime had lost the image of an effective and strong government. “The president now faces enhanced scrutiny from people for potentially allowing the country to become more vulnerable to earthquakes due to weakly or selectively enforced regulative standards governing the construction sector,” she said.

    According to Tanir, there is sizeable corruption in the Turkish construction sector over the past 20 years. “This administration came to power after the major earthquake in 1999. It was one of the reasons why the previous administration was eliminated at the ballot box in 2002,” he recalled.

    Tanir added that since then, Erdogan’s government has been issuing amnesty laws and the construction sector has been mostly unregulated. “For over two decades, they have also been collecting the earthquake tax, which may have yielded over billions of dollars by now. But despite predictions by renowned experts, the government was not prepared.”

    Dr Eldem underlined that the construction sector has been a backbone of AKP’s ‘clientelist regime’ and a ‘poster child’ of its success. “President Erdogan has always praised his ruling party for changing the face of Turkey by “turning all our cities into construction sites in a short period of time. With this earthquake Erdogan’s narrative emphasising the party’s construction projects, such as building roads, bridges, or city hospitals, also collapsed,” she said.

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    Now, she pointed out, the Turkish government will face significantly high costs for recovery and reconstruction of the roads, bridges, buildings, and other infrastructure. Disruption of business operations in the region will inevitably cause a decrease in economic activity and increase in poverty, she predicted.

    “Around 15 per cent of the population lives in that region which produces close to 10 per cent of GDP. Already before the earthquake, Erdogan’s popular support was falling at its historical low and his populist discourse based on anti-establishment appeals have not appealed to youth,” Dr Eldem said.

    According to the academic, the devastating earthquake, particularly the total collapse of those apartments that were constructed according to regulations adopted after the 1999 earthquake, has exposed the inefficiency of the government to enforce already existing rules for building safety. The Turkish government’s emergency response to the earthquake has also revealed the unpreparedness for emergency relief and management, she noted.

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    Turkish woman dies day after her rescue following 104 hours under quake rubble. PHOTO: AFP

    “Although the impact of the earthquake on regime survival will depend on the extent to which it will provide adequate support to affected communities, the immediate government response, or failure to respond, have created widespread social discontent,” Dr Eldem said, drawing comparisons of the situation after the present disaster with the post-1999 earthquake scenario.

    Going forward, she suggested Turkey would need to undertake significant reforms in its political and economic governance system while trying to effectively respond to the needs of the affected population and improve its disaster preparedness and response capabilities. “On the positive side, such a natural disaster has shown the importance of national and international solidarity,” Dr Eldem said. “In its second century, Turkey has a long to-do list waiting ahead of it.”



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