Pakistan Affairs

Tag: Canada

  • Non-alcoholic brands ramp up production as demand ‘explodes’ in Canada  – National | Globalnews.ca

    چونکہ کینیڈین تیزی سے کم پیتے ہیں یا بالکل نہیں پیتے ہیں، غیر الکوحل مشروبات کمپنیاں بڑھتی ہوئی مانگ کو پورا کرنے کے لیے سخت محنت کر رہی ہیں اور بعض اوقات برقرار رکھنے کے لیے جدوجہد کر رہی ہیں۔

    2019 میں نان الکوحل اسپرٹ کمپنی سوبری کا آغاز کرنے والے باب ہیٹیما کا کہنا ہے کہ \”خشک جنوری\” کے دوران فروخت میں اضافے کے ساتھ، اس تصور کی مقبولیت میں اضافے کے ساتھ، گزشتہ چند سالوں سے دلچسپی پیدا ہو رہی ہے۔

    صرف پچھلے کچھ سالوں میں، وہ کہتے ہیں، صنعت میں \”دھماکہ\” ہوا ہے کہ غیر الکوحل مشروبات تیار کرنے والی مزید کمپنیاں۔


    \"ویڈیو


    کینیڈین کینسر سوسائٹی ڈرائی فروری سے گفتگو کرتی ہے۔


    Libra Non-Alcoholic Craft Beer کے شریک بانی اور CEO Mitch Cobb نے اکتوبر 2020 میں Charlottetown میں Upstreet Craft Brewing میں سنگل غیر الکوحل والی بیئر کا آغاز کیا۔ اس کے بعد سے، بڑھتی ہوئی مانگ کے باعث وہ غیر الکوحل کی پیشکش کو بڑھا رہا ہے اور حال ہی میں لیبرا کو ایک الگ کمپنی میں تبدیل کر رہا ہے۔

    کہانی اشتہار کے نیچے جاری ہے۔

    انہوں نے کہا کہ \”یہ بالکل ختم ہونا شروع ہو گیا ہے۔\”

    کوب نے یہ بھی نوٹ کیا کہ ریستوراں اور گروسروں کو فروخت کرنا آسان ہوتا جا رہا ہے، جو کبھی شک میں تھے کہ گاہک مشروبات خریدیں گے۔

    \”جیسے ہی ہمیں شیلف کی جگہ مل گئی، فروخت شروع ہو جائے گی۔\”

    لیکن اس بڑھتی ہوئی مانگ نے راستے میں کچھ ہچکیوں کو جنم دیا ہے۔

    مزید پڑھ:

    غیر الکوحل والی بیئر، وائن کی مانگ بڑھ رہی ہے کیونکہ زیادہ کینیڈین پینے میں کمی کر رہے ہیں۔

    اگلا پڑھیں:

    سورج کا کچھ حصہ آزاد ہو کر ایک عجیب بھنور بناتا ہے، سائنسدانوں کو حیران کر دیتے ہیں۔

    کچھ مواقع پر، کوب نے کہا، مانگ اس کی توقع سے بہت زیادہ تھی، جس کی وجہ سے قلیل مدتی خلا پیدا ہوا جہاں وہ تمام آرڈرز کو پورا نہیں کر سکے۔

    اگرچہ اس نے ان تجربات سے سیکھا ہے اور مانگ کی پیشن گوئی کرنے میں بہتر ہو گیا ہے، اس نے کہا کہ اس کی کمپنی کو جنوری میں مانگ کو برقرار رکھنے میں ابھی بھی مشکل پیش آئی ہے۔

    پروڈیوسروں میں اضافے کے ساتھ ساتھ، ایسی کمپنیاں بھی شروع ہو رہی ہیں جو خوردہ فروشوں، ریستورانوں اور باروں میں غیر الکوحل والے مشروبات درآمد اور تقسیم کرتی ہیں۔

    Clearsips پچھلی موسم گرما میں کینیڈین اور بین الاقوامی غیر الکوحل مشروبات، بشمول شراب، بیئر اور اسپرٹ کے تقسیم کار کے طور پر شروع کی گئی۔ شریک بانی ڈیوڈ تھامسن پہلے ہی 20 سال سے زائد عرصے سے شراب کی ایجنسی چلا رہے تھے۔ خود ایک غیر پینے والا، اس نے اپنی صنعت کی مہارت کو خوردہ فروشوں اور ریستورانوں سے پروڈیوسروں کو جوڑنے کے لیے استعمال کرنے کا فیصلہ کیا۔

    کہانی اشتہار کے نیچے جاری ہے۔

    Sansorium، ایک اور تقسیم کار، جو ستمبر 2021 میں شروع ہوا اور غیر الکوحل والے مشروبات کینیڈا کو دوسرے ممالک سے درآمد کرتا ہے جہاں غیر الکوحل مشروبات کی صنعت زیادہ ترقی یافتہ ہے۔


    \"ویڈیو


    UCalgary مطالعہ وبائی امراض اور الکحل سے متعلق جگر کی بیماری کے درمیان تعلق کو دیکھتا ہے۔


    کمپنی کی تخلیقی ڈائریکٹر اور شریک بانی، فیونا ہیفر نے کہا کہ طلب میں مسلسل اضافہ ہو رہا ہے کیونکہ زیادہ سے زیادہ لوگ غیر الکوحل مشروبات آزماتے ہیں اور ان کے بارے میں ان کے قیاس کو ختم کر دیا جاتا ہے۔

    کوب کی طرح، اس کی بھی مانگ کے بارے میں اپنے کچھ غلط مفروضے تھے، یہ دیکھ کر کہ اس کی کچھ سب سے زیادہ فروخت ہونے والی شرابیں بکتی ہیں _ اور چونکہ وہ درآمد کی جاتی ہیں، اس لیے وہ زیادہ دیر تک ٹور اسٹاک لیتے ہیں۔

    ہیفر نے کہا کہ یہ مایوس کن ہوسکتا ہے، لیکن یہ صنعت کے لیے ایک اچھی علامت ہے۔

    اگرچہ ترقی تیز نظر آتی ہے، سوبری کی ہیوٹیما کا خیال ہے کہ کینیڈا کی غیر الکوحل پینے کی صنعت اتنی تیزی سے آگے نہیں بڑھ رہی جتنی دوسرے ممالک میں ہے۔

    \”میں کہوں گا کہ برطانیہ ابھی بھی اس سے کئی سال آگے ہے جہاں ہم اب ہیں، خوردہ اپنانے کے لحاظ سے، خوردہ رسائی کے لحاظ سے، اور خوردہ جگہ میں صارفین کی قبولیت اور صارفین کی مانگ کے لحاظ سے۔\”

    کہانی اشتہار کے نیچے جاری ہے۔

    انہوں نے نوٹ کیا کہ چھوٹے، خودمختار اور خاص اسٹورز میں غیر الکوحل مشروبات، خاص طور پر نئے، زیادہ اختراعی برانڈز کی ایک وسیع صف رکھنے کا امکان زیادہ ہوتا ہے۔ انہوں نے کہا کہ اگلے چند سالوں میں، ریٹیل آپشنز کو زیادہ مرکزی دھارے میں پھیلانا ہو گا۔

    ہیئٹیما نے کہا کہ یقینی طور پر بڑھنے کے لیے بہت ساری گنجائشیں ہیں، بہت سے لوگ بمشکل ہی جانتے ہیں کہ وہاں کیا ہے۔

    خشک جنوری، جہاں شرکاء ہار مانتے ہیں۔ سال کے پہلے مہینے کے لئے الکحل نے ہر سال کچھ کینیڈین صارفین کو غیر الکوحل مشروبات سے متعارف کرانے میں مدد کی ہے، لیکن اس صنعت میں شامل افراد کا کہنا ہے کہ اس بار مختلف محسوس ہوا۔


    \"ویڈیو


    شراب کے نئے رہنما خطوط کے بارے میں ونٹرز فکر مند نہیں ہیں۔


    ادائیگی کرنے والی کمپنی اسکوائر کے مطابق، جنوری 2023 کی پہلی ششماہی میں مک ٹیل کی فروخت ہر سال 123 فیصد اضافے کے ساتھ اب تک کی بلند ترین سطح پر پہنچ گئی۔

    ہیوٹیما کا خیال ہے کہ جنوری میں جاری کی گئی کم خطرے والی الکحل کی کھپت کے بارے میں نئی ​​رہنمائی، جس میں پچھلے مشورے سے ڈرامائی طور پر کم شراب پینے کی سفارش کی گئی تھی، بہت سے خوردہ فروشوں اور ریستورانوں کو اس میں شامل ہونے پر مجبور کیا۔

    کہانی اشتہار کے نیچے جاری ہے۔

    کوب نے کہا کہ ایک سال پہلے کے مقابلے جنوری میں ان کی فروخت میں 40 فیصد اضافہ ہوا، اور فروری کی فروخت بھی اب تک بڑھ چکی ہے۔

    تھامسن نے جنوری میں کہا، کلیئرسپس نے 20 سے زیادہ نئے ریسٹورنٹ کلائنٹس کو سائن اپ کیا، جو پچھلے مہینوں میں سنگل ہندسوں کی تعداد سے ایک اہم ٹکرانا ہے۔

    تھامسن نے غیر الکوحل والے مشروبات کا موازنہ ویگن متبادلات سے کیا _ سال پہلے زیادہ تر ریستوران انہیں پیش نہیں کرتے تھے، لیکن صارفین کی بڑھتی ہوئی طلب اور زیادہ پروڈکٹس کی دستیابی کے ساتھ، کاروبار یہ محسوس کرنے لگے ہیں کہ ان کے پاس پیشکش کرنے کے سوا کوئی چارہ نہیں ہے۔

    ہیفر دیکھتا ہے کہ کاروبار میں دو گنا اضافہ ہوتا ہے: نئی غیر الکوحل مشروبات کی کمپنیوں میں اضافہ، بلکہ غیر الکوحل کے اختیارات شروع کرنے والے روایتی الکحل برانڈز میں بھی اضافہ۔

    اگرچہ تھامسن کو توقع ہے کہ وہ مستقبل قریب کے لیے جنوری میں فروخت میں اضافہ دیکھے گا، لیکن ان کے خیال میں سال کے ہر مہینے غیر الکوحل مشروبات کی صارفین کی مانگ میں اضافہ ہوتا رہے گا۔ اور وہ سوچتا ہے کہ اگلے دو سال خاص طور پر انڈسٹری کے لیے بہت اہم ہوں گے کیونکہ زیادہ پروڈکٹس لانچ کیے جائیں گے، کچھ ممکنہ طور پر دوسروں کے مقابلے میں زیادہ کامیابی کے ساتھ ملیں گے۔

    \”یہ اگلے دو سالوں میں بہت دلچسپ ہونے والا ہے،\” انہوں نے کہا۔

    کینیڈین پریس کی یہ رپورٹ پہلی بار 19 فروری 2023 کو شائع ہوئی تھی۔





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  • The West Block – Episode 22, Season 12 – National | Globalnews.ca

    THE WEST BLOCK

    Episode 22, Season 12

    Sunday, February 19, 2023

    Host: Mercedes Stephenson

    Guests:

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister

    Peter MacKay, Former Defence Minister

    Location:

    Ottawa, ON

     

    Mercedes Stephenson: A country scarred by divisions after the pandemic and facing threats from abroad. How do we heal the nation and protect Canadians?

    I’m Mercedes Stephenson. Welcome to The West Block.

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    Out of the frying pan, into the fire: The Rouleau Commission finds the federal government was justified in invoking the Emergencies Act, but the Liberals are facing new questions about Chinese interference in Canada’s democracy.

    Plus, is Canada’s Arctic secure? Questions about holes in our defences loom after the Chinese spy balloon saga.

    A situation that spun out of control, that’s how Justice Paul Rouleau described what was happening during last winter’s convoy blockades. His report into the prime minister’s decision to invoke the Emergencies Act came out last Friday. Justice Rouleau said the government had met the threshold they needed to, but that the situation in and of itself was also a failure of federalism.

    Justice Paul Rouleau, Public Order Emergencies Act Commission: “Preparing for and responding to situations of threat and urgency in a federal system requires governments at all levels, and those who lead them, to rise above politics and collaborate for the common good. In January and February, 2022 this did not always happen.” 

    Mercedes Stephenson: Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino joins me now. Welcome to the show, minister.

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: Thanks for having me.

    Mercedes Stephenson: I guess you couldn’t have asked for much of a better report as the government. It very clearly said that this was required, but it also said it never needed to get to this point, that there were failures in policing. There were failures in politics. There were failures in politicians at different levels of government, to get along. Do you wish you’d handled this differently or acted sooner?

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: Well first, I want to begin my—expressing my gratitude to Judge Rouleau for issuing his report. After carefully listening to all of the evidence over a number of weeks, he did come to the conclusion that the government was justified in invoking the Emergencies Act and that is because, as you pointed out, this was a protest that was national in scale. It impacted people and workers. It completely upended folks’ way of going about their daily lives. And the government had a responsibility to act, so we took that responsibility and we took that decision very seriously. We did not want to invoke the act, but we did and it worked. And it resolved the blockades. No one got hurt. There were no fatalities. There was no significant damage to property. And now we have to set about looking at the recommendations that he was very thoughtful in writing, including making sure that we’ve got strong lines of communication with police and governments so that ideally, we never get into this situation again.

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    Mercedes Stephenson: Did you agree with the assessment that Doug Ford basically abandoned the people of Ottawa, according to this report that the Ontario government failed to act?   

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: Well there’s no doubt that there was very difficult moments not only for the provinces and the territories, but for the police and that is why the government took every step to address those challenges, as Judge Rouleau wrote in his report. I think one of the important points going forward is to strengthen the collaboration, strengthen the coordination between all levels of government so that it never does get to a point where you need to invoke the Emergencies Act. There are some concrete recommendations around policing and sharing of information and intelligence, and even some of the texts that are in the law itself. We’re going to study those very carefully and we’re going to work with all of our provincial and territorial partners, including Ontario with whom we’ve got a good working relationship to go forward, because there’s nothing more important than protecting the health and safety of Canadians.

    Mercedes Stephenson: On Friday, Prime Minister Trudeau basically said that he was sorry for calling people who engaged in this a fringe minority, and there’s been a lot of discussion about the divisions in Canada and the kind of language that was used. Pierre Poilievre, the Opposition Leader, is laying the responsibility for the convoy at the feet of the Liberal government, saying that due to government overreach on COVID restrictions that went too far for too long and the way that you talked about people who disagreed with them is essentially what led to this. Is there some truth to that?  

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    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: There’s definitely some truth to the fact that Canadians were hurting throughout the pandemic. And there’s also truth in the fact that we live in a democracy and people have a fundamental right to express different points of view, and having debates is one of the ways in which we make forward progress. But it’s also true that the government at every critical juncture throughout the pandemic and throughout our tenure has always placed as a paramount goal, the protection of the health and safety of Canadians. And when we do that, we base our decisions on evidence and science and facts. And as we navigate these challenging times, it’s important that we work together, and I think, perhaps, that is one of the most important themes that come out of the Rouleau Commission report.  

    Mercedes Stephenson: But that wasn’t really your government’s tone at the time.

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: Well, I would simply say that yes, there are definitely some lessons to be taken, but our commitment is to study the recommendations very carefully and bring Canadians along as we accelerate our recovery coming out of the pandemic. But this was an important moment for us to act. We had a duty to act. We were confronted with a very unique situation, where people couldn’t get to work. Thousands of people were laid off, temporarily. Businesses were shut down. People could not traverse the border. We had one of our closest, if not our closest ally in the United States, expressing the profound concerns that these blockades would interrupt the flow of critical supply chains. In the fact of all of those circumstances, we had no choice to act. We were always reluctant to invoke and eager to revoke. And now we will study the Commission report, to take whatever lessons we need to, going forward so ideally, we never have to invoke it again. 

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    Mercedes Stephenson: As the minister of public safety, you oversee the RCMP and CSIS, two of Canada’s policing and intelligence agencies that deal with foreign interference. It’s something that Global News has reported on a lot. There was a pretty explosive report in The Globe and Mail on Friday, citing documents, very high level documents from CSIS, talking about China’s attempts to interfere directly in the election, and in fact, a target, particularly Conservative candidates and to cause them to lose. This was the strategy. You have repeatedly said that you didn’t have any evidence of China interfering. Then on Friday, the prime minister came out and said, well of course we’ve known China’s trying to interfere for a long time. My question to you is: Do you, or do you not, have evidence that China interfered in the 2021 election?

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: Mercedes, we’ve always been up front with Canadians that foreign interference is a significant threat in the national security landscape, and that’s why we created independent panels made up of non-partisan, professional public servants, to examine very carefully the circumstances in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. And after conducting that review, they came to the conclusion that those elections were free and fair. Now that’s very important…

    Mercedes Stephenson: Despite what CSIS is saying, because CSIS is—I should be careful of that—CSIS is not saying they were not free or fair elections…  

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: That’s right. They’re not saying that.   

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    Mercedes Stephenson: They are documenting threats which were not publicly revealed. Should you have told the Canadian people about these attempts to interfere? 

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: We’ve always been up front with the fact that there is foreign interference that we need to be eyes wide-open and vigilant about. They pose a threat to our democratic institutions, which is why we put in place tools like Bill C-76, to stop foreign funding from interfering with elections, which is why we created two panels. And it was up to the non… 

    Mercedes Stephenson: But when were those created? Weren’t they before the 2021 election? 

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: To be clear, we created both of those panels to look at both elections. You don’t want elected politicians wading into the outcomes. You want non-partisan, professional public servants, to independently study the circumstances of the elections, who concluded on their own, independently, that the elections were free and fair. And that’s important… 

    Mercedes Stephenson: Did they have access to the CSIS reports? 

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: And I just want to complete the thought. That’s important because that means that Canadians, and Canadians alone, determined the outcome of those elections, and we will continue to be sure that we are eyes wide-open about that.  

    Mercedes Stephenson: Did that panel have access to these intelligence reports? Were they aware of what CSIS was aware of? 

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    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: Our non-partisan, professional public servants look at the information that they need to, to make the assessment around the integrity of the election.

    Mercedes Stephenson: Does that include the CSIS report?

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: So they get the access that they need to the information that is required to come to those conclusions. And those are important [00:09:20] against the threats of foreign interference. I’d also point out that it’s not just about democratic institutions. It’s also about protecting our economy, which is why in recent days, myself, Minister Champagne, Minister Duclos, also strengthened the protections in the academic sector by ensuring that there are stricter guidelines when it comes to research partnerships when they propose to study sensitive areas, where that partnership includes military and other sensitive branches of hostile state actors. This government will always take whatever steps that are necessary, to protect our democratic institutions, protect our elections, protect our economy and to protect Canadians from foreign interference.

    Mercedes Stephenson: Does that include expelling Chinese diplomats who are bragging about attempts to influence the election?

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: We will always take whatever steps that is necessary. If that means condemning hostile state actors, we will do it. If that means taking other measures, then we will do it. And we’re eyes wide open about what those threats look like and we’ve put in place… 

    Mercedes Stephenson: But you’ve known about these threats for some time. We’re just finding out about them because we’re seeing the documents. But you’re the minister of public safety, so people will wonder why haven’t you taken more aggressive action? 

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    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: Well in the first case, we are taking very aggressive action to deal with the threats and I’ve laid out a number of concrete tools so that Canadians can be assured that their elections are free and fair, that they and they alone determine the outcomes of it, and they can be absolutely confident that that is the case. That when it comes to protecting our economy, we’re putting in additional measures. In 2019, we passed Bill C-59, to give CSIS additional threat reduction measure powers, but the corresponding responsibility of the government is to be transparent. And so by creating NSIRA, the National Security Intelligence Review Agency… 

    Mercedes Stephenson: Have you been transparent with Canadians about what you know, though?

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: Absolutely. By creating NSIRA, by creating the National Security Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians and yes, by creating the critical response group that is a panel that is made up of independent, non-partisan public servants who report to Canadians openly, transparently… 

    Mercedes Stephenson: And did not document any threats to the election. 

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: …openly and transparently so that Canadians can be sure that their democratic institutions are protected. That is the high bar that this government has set and that is the high bar that the government will continue to live up to.  

    Mercedes Stephenson: I have heard from both Liberals and Conservatives that it’s dangerous to talk about China attempting to fund interference in Canadian elections because it can cause you to lose an election or lose a seat, that there is very much, and it’s not a Liberal or Conservative side necessarily, that there is a danger to talking about China from a political vantage of winning an election. Do you think that that is impeding a willingness on all sides of the political spectrum to crack down on China? 

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    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: National security is not a partisan issue. This is something that all parties should be united in addressing. And that is why when we speak about this, we speak about it in terms of relying on our institutions, relying on non-partisan public servants, to ensure that our democratic institutions are protected. We’re relying on the various branches within the National Security and Intelligence Agencies, to give the tools that they need, to protect our economy, to protect our communities. And by giving them those tools, we can address the concerns that have been expressed around intimidation, around harassment, around potential retaliation. The government is there to support all Canadians and we’ll continue to be eyes wide-open about addressing those threats by making sure that all of our agencies have the tools that they need but with the corresponding transparency that is required to be upfront with Canadians so that Canadians can maintain confidence in their institutions.

    Mercedes Stephenson: We know that both our viewers and we here at The West Block love transparency, so we look forward to having you back again. Thank you so much for joining us today, minister. 

    Marco Mendicino, Public Safety Minister: Thank you, Mercedes.

    Up next, why a former defence minister says the Chinese spy balloon and those other aerial objects should be a wakeup call for Canada.  

    [Break]

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    Mercedes Stephenson: There are a lot of unanswered questions about the Chinese spy balloon and the three aerial objects shot down by NORAD earlier this month.

    U.S. President Joe Biden is saying the three objects were likely harmless. But between the spy balloon and scrambled fighter jets, tensions with China are clearly on the rise. Biden says his message to Beijing is clear: The U.S. won’t tolerate a violation of its sovereignty.

    Joe Biden, U.S. President: “We seek competition, not conflict with China. We’re not looking for a new Cold War.” 

    Mercedes Stephenson: Joining me now to talk about Canada’s response is former Conservative Defence Minister Peter MacKay. Peter, thank you for coming on.

    Peter MacKay, Former Defence Minister: My pleasure, Mercedes.

    Mercedes Stephenson: We’ve been watching this whole thing, tracking it very closely. You could see it really escalating when it looked for a while like there might be four spy balloons. Now they’re saying only one definitely was, but it is part of a global surveillance program that the Chinese are conducting and there’s this sense of tension between China and not just Canada but the U.S. and North America that I can’t remember seeing for years. What is your take on the situation that we’re in right now?

    Peter MacKay, Former Defence Minister: Well, I think you’re right. There was a moment in time probably last week, where it seemed surreal that there were numerous of these platforms—observation platforms as they were being described, some saying UFO. It looks more and more like the evidence will bear out that it was one and then others that coincidently had entered North American airspace. What made it a bit difficult to interpret was they were all different sizes, different locations at different altitudes and NORAD, of course, is tasked, first and foremost with protecting the skies over North America, the continent. It’s a shared responsibility: Canada-U.S. So one can understand reasonably why they took them down in a militaristic sense. They took them down with sidewinder missiles. It was American aircraft that was scrambled, although Canadian planes were in the vicinity. And it raises broader questions as you’ve alluded to in your opening. What does this mean for the ongoing tensions with China? With Russia as well, of course, and what about the defences of North America, particularly the vulnerability from the Arctic? And that’s where, you know, the discussion around Arctic defences and installations; observation from the Arctic becomes really, a critical question.

    Mercedes Stephenson: Well and I know that this is something that you’ve been talking about a lot recently, and most of North America’s Arctic belongs to Canada. It’s Canadian territory. What kind of ability do we have to actually monitor and defend that right now?

    Peter MacKay, Former Defence Minister: Very little. We don’t have modern fighter aircraft, as you know. We have some observation platforms available. We, of course, don’t have even the antiquated what they used to call the DEW line, which was a series of sensors. But we know the technology exists through satellite. We need to have the ability to have more ships there. For refuelling, we have to have a deep water refuelling station. That is still under construction. It will take a system of systems, if you will, including underwater sensors. All of this is a massive investment. The current government has committed to that but over a very long period of time. And if anything, this balloon incident, which looks to be overblown—pardon the pun—has put a sharp focus on what will be required. And I think the Americans have a greater appreciation and perhaps a little more anxiety about this than most Canadians. We haven’t taken this situation serious enough, in my opinion.

    Mercedes Stephenson: How much influence does Canada have at the table in terms of making these decisions on things like shoot downs right now? Because it seemed like Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden were both kind of saying they ordered the shoot down. Does Canada have a voice or is it the U.S. calling the shots?

    Peter MacKay, Former Defence Minister: We have a voice, to be sure. But in this case, make no mistake, the Americans called the shot and took the shot with their aircraft and their missiles, which by the way are about $0.5 million a pop. But we’re losing face and we’re losing that influence when we’re not upping our game. We don’t have modern aircraft. We don’t have the ships that we need. We certainly don’t have the number of submarines that the U.S., the UK and others have. And that’s why, frankly, we weren’t invited to the table with this new organization called [00:04:45 UKUSA], which is the equivalent of the Five Eyes. So we are on a downward spiral. We’re not paying our commitment to NATO with respect to the percentage of GDP. All of this in accumulation does diminish Canada’s voice at a lot of tables.

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    Mercedes Stephenson: Do you think that we’re going to see more, not necessarily just spy balloons, but these kinds of incursions from states like Russia and China in areas that most of us in the public hadn’t even been thinking about?

    Peter MacKay, Former Defence Minister: Sadly, I think it’s entirely possible, almost expected. I believe the Chinese were opportunistic in this sense and Russia can be even more so. It’s not only the air approaches that we need to be concerned about, Mercedes. With the opening of Arctic waters, similarly, the Russians are more active, the Chinese as well in sending these research vessels through our waters. Russia, in particular, is recapitalizing some of their old military bases on their side of the Arctic. So that is to say the waters that we share, up to a certain line, the Russians are much more prepared and much more armed and much more able. And so this will pose certain challenges to Canada, in particular, but to NORAD and North America. And the Arctic Rangers, God love them, we simply—we need much more in terms of our protection of sovereignty and projection of Canadian military capability. 

    Mercedes Stephenson: Speaking of Russia, there was a Russian not incursion but sort of test of the Northern skies that NORAD said they considered to be among the norm. There was an interception that happened last week, but of course, where Russia is most active is Ukraine. And a year on, a lot of folks didn’t think we would still see the Ukrainians fighting. They are. The West has backed them, but it’s still very much a question of how this is going to turn out? Do you think that Western countries are doing enough to support Ukraine and how do you balance that with also not escalating it to being drawn in and viewed potentially as a combatant?

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    Peter MacKay, Former Defence Minister: I don’t think that we, the West, are doing enough and I fear that this is far from over. Russia will continually test the commitment of NATO and the West in what they’re doing in this illegal invasion of Ukraine. As you know, this goes back to 2014. We’re coming up on the one year anniversary, if you will, of the true war on Ukraine. But it begin in Crimea in 2014, and so we, the West, have been preparing and have knowledge of this for a very long time. Sending in tanks, air defence systems, everything short of, quite frankly, boots on the ground, has to continue. This is a quintessential threat not just to Ukraine, but to global security and the whole order of peace in the world. This is on Europe’s doorstep. What it has done as well, Mercedes, clearly, is accelerate the expansion of NATO, enlargement of NATO. It has allowed Ukraine, perhaps, to enter the European Union at an accelerated pace as well, in an effort to take every step to push back on Russia. But it’s coming at a massive cost, of course, in human lives. The infrastructure that’s being destroyed on the ground and it’s also having a massive impact on Russia. It has blown up spectacularly on them. They’re a poorer country. They’re a weaker country. They’ve lost their ability to project power and perhaps become more reliant, supplicant to China as a result of this ill thought out incursion into their neighbouring country of Ukraine.  

    Mercedes Stephenson: Peter MacKay, former minister of defence, thank you for joining us today.

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    Peter MacKay, Former Defence Minister: Thank you, Mercedes.

    Mercedes Stephenson: Up next, taking stock as Ukraine marks on year since Russia’s invasion. 

    [Break]

    Mercedes Stephenson: Now for one last thing, and this week it’s a very important one. We’re approaching the one year anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine. The images of Russian soldiers advancing shocked the world and few thought that a year later, Ukraine would still be fighting. But their resolve remains strong. It’s been a year filled with atrocities, the systemic targeting of civilians, the destruction of Ukrainian towns and cities and a long list of war crimes.

    The West has backed Ukraine with words and weapons, seeing it as the front line between democracy and tyranny, but it has not been enough to win yet. As we mark this tragic anniversary, we’ll see what more the West is willing to give in coming days.

    Story continues below advertisement

    Thanks for watching today, and I’ll see you next Sunday.





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  • Chinese spy balloon puts ‘sharp focus’ on why Canada must modernize military: MacKay – National | Globalnews.ca

    ایک کا حالیہ گزرنا چینی جاسوس غبارہ کینیڈا اور امریکی فضائی حدود پر اس بات پر \”تیز توجہ\” دیتا ہے کہ کینیڈا کی طرف سے بڑھتی ہوئی دراندازیوں کے پیش نظر اپنی فوج کو جدید بنانے کو کیوں ترجیح دینی چاہیے۔ چین اور روس آرکٹک میں، سابق وزیر دفاع پیٹر میکے کا کہنا ہے کہ.

    غبارے کی ظاہری شکل – اور گزشتہ ہفتے کے آخر میں شمالی امریکہ میں مار گرائے جانے والے تین مزید ہوائی اشیاء کے ردعمل نے \”وسیع تر سوالات\” اٹھائے ہیں کہ کینیڈا کا آرکٹک غیر ملکی خطرات سے کتنا محفوظ ہے، میک کے نے مرسڈیز سٹیفنسن کو ایک انٹرویو میں بتایا۔ ویسٹ بلاک اتوار.

    ان سوالات کے جوابات، انہوں نے مزید کہا، کینیڈا کو مناسب روشنی میں نہ ڈالیں۔

    \”اگر کچھ بھی ہے تو، غبارے کا یہ واقعہ، جو بہت زیادہ اڑا ہوا نظر آتا ہے – معاف کریں – نے اس بات پر سخت توجہ مرکوز کی ہے کہ کیا ضرورت ہوگی،\” میکے نے کہا۔ \”میری رائے میں، ہم نے صورتحال کو کافی سنجیدگی سے نہیں لیا ہے۔

    کہانی اشتہار کے نیچے جاری ہے۔

    \”ہمیں اپنی خودمختاری کے تحفظ اور کینیڈا کی فوجی صلاحیت کے تخمینے کے لحاظ سے بہت کچھ کی ضرورت ہے۔\”

    مزید پڑھ:

    کینیڈا کے سیاست دان، محققین کا کہنا ہے کہ اڑنے والی اشیاء آرکٹک کی سلامتی کے بارے میں خدشات پیدا کرتی ہیں۔

    اگلا پڑھیں:

    \’ہم نے لینڈنگ کو ایک طرح سے مس کیا\’: البرٹا کے وزیر اعظم کے ساتھ عجیب مصافحہ پر

    چینی جاسوس غبارے نے الاسکا کا سفر کیا اور 30 ​​اور 31 جنوری کے درمیان غیر قانونی طور پر کینیڈا کی فضائی حدود میں داخل ہوا، یوکون اور وسطی برٹش کولمبیا سے جنوب میں پرواز کرتے ہوئے امریکی مڈویسٹ پر منڈلانے سے پہلے، کینیڈا کے حکام نے جمعہ کو انکشاف کیا۔ اسے امریکی لڑاکا طیاروں نے 4 فروری کو کیرولیناس کے ساحل پر مار گرایا تھا۔

    اس واقعے نے NORAD – براعظمی فضائی دفاعی نیٹ ورک – کو شمالی امریکہ کی فضائی حدود کی جانچ پڑتال کرنے پر آمادہ کیا، جس کے نتیجے میں 10 فروری کو الاسکا، 11 فروری کو یوکون، اور 12 فروری کو جھیل ہورون پر نامعلوم اشیاء کی دریافت اور انہیں مار گرایا گیا۔

    امریکی اور کینیڈین حکام نے کہا ہے کہ ان اشیاء سے شہری طیاروں کو خطرہ لاحق ہے، لیکن امریکی انٹیلی جنس کے مطابق، یہ خیال کیا جاتا ہے کہ یہ چین یا کسی اور غیر ملکی نگرانی کے آپریشن سے منسلک نہیں ہیں۔ خراب موسم کی وجہ سے اشیاء کی بازیابی کی کارروائیوں میں رکاوٹ پیدا ہوئی ہے جس کی وجہ سے جھیل ہورون آبجیکٹ کی تلاش کو مکمل طور پر معطل کر دیا گیا ہے۔

    اگرچہ وزیر اعظم جسٹن ٹروڈو اور امریکی صدر جو بائیڈن نے تینوں کو ہٹانے کے لیے اپنے باہمی تعاون کے انداز پر زور دیا ہے، لیکن میکے کو یقین ہے کہ امریکہ ہی گولیاں چلانے والا تھا۔


    \"ویڈیو


    چینی جاسوس غبارے کی کینیڈا کے اوپر پرواز کے راستے کا انکشاف دفاعی حکام نے کیا۔


    اس کی وجہ یہ ہے کہ NORAD کے اندر کینیڈا کا اثر و رسوخ کم ہو رہا ہے کیونکہ اس کے فوجی اثاثے بڑے ہوتے جا رہے ہیں۔

    کہانی اشتہار کے نیچے جاری ہے۔

    2007 سے 2013 تک اسٹیفن ہارپر کی کنزرویٹو حکومت میں وزیر دفاع کے طور پر خدمات انجام دینے والے میکے نے کہا، \”ہم اپنا چہرہ کھو رہے ہیں اور ہم اس اثر و رسوخ کو کھو رہے ہیں جب ہم اپنے کھیل میں اضافہ نہیں کر رہے ہیں۔\”

    ہمارے پاس جدید طیارے نہیں ہیں۔ ہمارے پاس وہ جہاز نہیں ہیں جن کی ہمیں ضرورت ہے۔ ہمارے پاس یقینی طور پر اتنی آبدوزیں نہیں ہیں جو امریکہ اور برطانیہ اور دیگر کے پاس ہیں۔

    وفاقی حکومت اب بھی اپنے پرانے بحری بیڑوں کو تبدیل کرنے اور ملک میں نئے F-35 لڑاکا طیارے لانے کے لیے کام کر رہی ہے، ایسے منصوبے جو شیڈول سے کئی سال پیچھے ہیں۔

    کینیڈا بھی اب بھی AIM-9X سائیڈ ونڈر میزائلوں اور جدید ریڈارز کی فراہمی کا انتظار کر رہا ہے – وہی گرمی تلاش کرنے والے نظام جس نے گزشتہ ہفتے کے آخر میں اڑنے والی اشیاء کو نیچے لایا تھا – امریکہ سے آرڈر کیے جانے کے دو سال بعد۔

    مزید پڑھ:

    کینیڈا کو ابھی تک وہی میزائل نہیں ملے ہیں جو امریکہ نے ہوا سے چلنے والی اشیاء کو مار گرانے کے لیے استعمال کیے تھے۔

    اگلا پڑھیں:

    لبرل ایم پی \’پروٹوکول گفٹ\’ پر $21.9K خرچ کرنے کے ساتھ دیگر تمام افراد میں سرفہرست ہے۔ یہاں وہ ہے جس پر اس نے خرچ کیا۔

    2021 میں، آسٹریلیا، برطانیہ اور ریاست ہائے متحدہ امریکہ نے AUKUS سیکورٹی معاہدہ تشکیل دیا جس کا ڈیزائن ہند-بحرالکاہل کے علاقے میں چین کی بڑھتی ہوئی فوجی موجودگی کا مقابلہ کرنے کے لیے کیا گیا، جہاں کینیڈا کے بڑھتے ہوئے اقتصادی اور سلامتی کے مفادات ہیں۔ کینیڈین حکام خاموش رہے۔ اس پر کہ آیا کینیڈا کو اس معاہدے میں شامل ہونے کے لیے مدعو کیا گیا تھا، صرف یہ تجویز کیا گیا تھا کہ شراکت داری بنیادی طور پر جوہری آبدوزوں کی خریداری پر مرکوز تھی – ایسی چیز جس کے لیے لبرلز مارکیٹ میں نہیں ہیں۔

    جس نے تشویش کو جنم دیا ہے۔ کینیڈین فورسز کی قیادت کے اندر کہ کینیڈا کو اپنے قریبی اتحادیوں کی طرح جدید ترین فوجی ٹیکنالوجی تک رسائی حاصل نہیں ہوگی۔

    کہانی اشتہار کے نیچے جاری ہے۔

    میکے نے AUKUS معاہدے سے کینیڈا کی عدم موجودگی کو ملک کے گھٹتے ہوئے اثر کی علامت کے طور پر ڈالا، جس کی وجہ انہوں نے وفاقی حکومت کو نیٹو کے جی ڈی پی کے 2.0 فیصد کے فوجی اخراجات کے معیار پر پورا نہ اترنے کو قرار دیا۔

    \”یہ سب کچھ جمع ہونے سے کینیڈا کی آواز بہت سی میزوں پر کم ہو جاتی ہے،\” انہوں نے کہا۔

    نیٹو کے تازہ ترین اعداد و شمار ظاہر کریں کہ کینیڈا کے دفاعی اخراجات اور جی ڈی پی کا تناسب 2021 میں 1.36 فیصد سے کم ہو کر 2022 میں 1.27 فیصد ہو گیا۔

    اوٹاوا کا منصوبہ ہے کہ تناسب بڑھے گا۔ 2025 تک 1.43 فیصد تک پہنچنے کا وعدہ کیا گیا اربوں کے ساتھ مزید اخراجات، جو ابھی بھی ہدف سے کم رہیں گے۔ پارلیمانی بجٹ افسر کا کہنا ہے۔ وفاقی حکومت کو اگلے پانچ سالوں میں 2.0 فیصد تک پہنچنے کے لیے مزید 75.3 بلین ڈالر خرچ کرنے ہوں گے۔


    \"ویڈیو


    سٹولٹن برگ کا کہنا ہے کہ شمالی امریکہ پر مارے گئے مشتبہ جاسوس غبارے چوکسی کی اہمیت کو ظاہر کرتے ہیں


    گزشتہ ہفتے واشنگٹن میں اپنے امریکی ہم منصبوں کے ساتھ ملاقاتوں میں، وزیر دفاع انیتا آنند نے چین کے جاسوس غبارے کے مقابلے میں NORAD اور آرکٹک میں حفاظتی اقدامات کو جدید بنانے کی اہمیت کو نوٹ کیا، جسے امریکہ نے متنبہ کیا ہے کہ یہ ایک وسیع تر غیر ملکی نگرانی کے پروگرام کا حصہ ہے۔ بیجنگ کی طرف سے.

    کہانی اشتہار کے نیچے جاری ہے۔

    میکے اس بات سے اتفاق کرتے ہیں کہ چین اور روس آرکٹک کے لیے \”موقع پرست\” روش اختیار کر رہے ہیں – اور نہ صرف فضائی حدود میں۔

    انہوں نے کہا، \”آرکٹک کے پانیوں کے کھلنے کے ساتھ، اسی طرح، روسی زیادہ فعال ہیں، چینی بھی، ان تحقیقی جہازوں کو ہمارے پانیوں کے ذریعے بھیجنے میں،\” انہوں نے کہا۔

    \”روسی بہت زیادہ تیار، بہت زیادہ مسلح اور بہت زیادہ قابل ہیں۔ اور اس طرح یہ کینیڈا کے لیے خاص طور پر، لیکن NORAD اور شمالی امریکہ کے لیے کچھ چیلنجز کا باعث بنے گا۔

    مزید پڑھ:

    روسی بمبار طیاروں نے الاسکا کے قریب روکا \’حالیہ چیزوں سے کوئی تعلق نہیں\’: NORAD

    اگلا پڑھیں:

    مزید کینیڈین حکومتوں پر بھروسہ کرتے ہیں کیونکہ COVID وبائی بیماری ختم ہوتی ہے: پول

    میکے نے کہا کہ آرکٹک میں روس کی بڑھتی ہوئی موجودگی اس جارحیت کے عین مطابق ہے جو اس کے یوکرین پر تقریباً ایک سال سے جاری حملے میں ظاہر ہوئی ہے، جو کہ \”نیٹو اور مغرب کے عزم کو مسلسل جانچے گا۔\”

    لیکن اس نے مزید کہا کہ کینیڈا اور باقی مغربی اتحادیوں کو یوکرین کی جنگ جیتنے میں مدد کرنے کے لیے مزید کچھ کرنا چاہیے، جس کا انھیں خدشہ ہے کہ \”ختم ہونے سے بہت دور ہے۔\”

    انہوں نے کہا کہ ٹینک، فضائی دفاعی نظام، ہر چیز کی کمی، بالکل واضح طور پر، زمین پر جوتے بھیجنا جاری رکھنا ہے۔

    \”یہ نہ صرف یوکرین کے لیے بلکہ عالمی سلامتی اور دنیا میں امن کے پورے نظام کے لیے ایک اہم خطرہ ہے۔ یہ یورپ کی دہلیز پر ہے۔

    &copy 2023 Global News، Corus Entertainment Inc کا ایک ڈویژن۔





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  • Fundraising event for quake victims: Pakistanis ready to assist people of Turkiye, Syria, says HC in Canada

    اسلام آباد: کینیڈا میں پاکستانی ہائی کمشنر ظہیر اے جنجوعہ نے ہفتے کے روز کہا کہ پاکستانی عوام تباہ کن زلزلے کے بعد اپنے ترک اور شامی بھائیوں کے ساتھ یکجہتی کے لیے کھڑے ہیں۔

    انہوں نے کہا کہ نیشنل ڈیزاسٹر منیجمنٹ اتھارٹی (این ڈی ایم اے) ترکی اور شام میں امدادی سرگرمیوں میں مدد کے لیے تمام دستیاب وسائل کو متحرک کرنے میں مصروف عمل ہے، بشمول موسم سرما میں خیمے، کمبل اور جان بچانے والی دیگر اہم اشیا۔

    آفت زدہ علاقوں میں کام کرنے کے لیے تربیت یافتہ اربن سرچ اینڈ ریسکیو ٹیموں کو پاکستان سے متاثرہ علاقوں میں روانہ کر دیا گیا تھا۔ ہائی کمشنر ترکی اور شام میں تباہ کن زلزلے کے متاثرین کے لیے فنڈ ریزنگ تقریب میں بطور مہمان خصوصی خطاب کر رہے تھے۔

    ایک پریس ریلیز میں کہا گیا کہ اس تقریب کا اہتمام انٹرنیشنل ڈویلپمنٹ ریلیف فاؤنڈیشن (IDRF) نے اوٹاوا میں ترک اور شامی باشندوں کے تعاون سے کیا تھا۔ IDRF کینیڈا کی ایک غیر منافع بخش خیراتی تنظیم ہے جو امدادی اور ترقیاتی پروگراموں میں سہولت فراہم کرنے کے لیے دنیا بھر کے شراکت داروں کے ساتھ کام کرتی ہے۔

    حاضرین سے خطاب کرتے ہوئے، ہائی کمشنر نے 6 فروری کو جنوبی ترکی اور شمالی شام کے علاقوں میں آنے والے زبردست زلزلے سے قیمتی جانوں کے ضیاع اور املاک کو ہونے والے وسیع نقصان پر گہرے دکھ کا اظہار کیا۔

    \”پاکستان ترکی اور شام میں زلزلے سے متاثرہ علاقوں میں امدادی سرگرمیوں میں ہر ممکن تعاون فراہم کرنے کے لیے تیار ہے۔ ہمیں یقین ہے کہ ترکی اور شام کے بہادر عوام خصوصیت اور عزم کے ساتھ اس قدرتی آفت پر قابو پالیں گے۔” پریس ریلیز میں ہائی کمشنر کے حوالے سے کہا گیا ہے۔ انہوں نے سامعین اور کینیڈا میں مقیم پاکستانیوں پر بھی زور دیا کہ وہ ترکی اور شام میں اپنے بھائیوں اور بہنوں کے لیے دل کھول کر عطیات دیں۔

    جنجوعہ نے حالیہ آب و ہوا کی وجہ سے ہونے والی بارش کے دوران پاکستان میں IDRF کی طرف سے کیے گئے انسانی کاموں کا بھی ذکر کیا اور ان کی تعریف کی۔



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  • Bank of Canada releases minutes for first time: Read the full text here

    This section is

    by HSBC

    \"\"

    Strong jobs market and economic growth led central bank to hike rates, minutes reveal

    \"The
    The Bank of Canada issued its \”summary of Governing Council deliberations\” for the first time on Feb. 8. Photo by David Kawai/Bloomberg

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    Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of January 25, 2023

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    This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Go
    verning Council     leading to the monetary policy decision on January 25, 2023.

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    This summary reflects discussions and deliberations by members of Governing Council in stage three of the bank’s monetary policy decision-making process. This stage takes place after members have received all staff briefings and recommendations.

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    Governing Council’s policy decision-making meetings began on Wednesday, Jan. 18. The governor presided over these meetings. Members in attendance were governor Tiff Macklem, senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers, deputy governor Paul Beaudry, deputy governor Toni Gravelle and deputy governor Sharon Kozicki.

    The international economy

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    Governing Council began discussions by reviewing recent international developments. Notable developments included:

    • the substantial declines in global energy prices
    • continued easing of global supply chain bottlenecks
    • the abrupt lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in China

    Overall, global economic activity, especially in the United States, the euro area and China, was somewhat above the bank’s expectations in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Council members continued to expect a significant slowing in global growth in 2023 as pent-up demand fades and the effects of higher interest rates restrain activity.

    Inflation, while still high and broad-based, had receded from its peak in many countries, and Council members discussed at some length how market narratives about the global economy and inflation were shifting.

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    Council assessed the revised U.S. outlook. They noted that U.S. consumers had been resilient, but growth is expected to be roughly flat in 2023. The labour market remained tight. Inflation was coming down, largely due to lower energy prices, and signs of broader moderation in inflation were becoming evident. The impending debt ceiling negotiations could be protracted and pose risks of financial volatility if an agreement were elusive.

    Council members continued to see the euro area moving into a mild recession, despite surprising resilience to date. Risks related to the Russian war in Ukraine continued to create uncertainty, and higher interest rates were weighing on growth.

    Council spent considerable time discussing the situation in China. The rapid shift in the Chinese approach to COVID-19 was seen as a new source of uncertainty. Most notably, the outlook for oil prices was subject to an upside risk because of China’s reopening. If Chinese demand were to rebound by more than anticipated, oil prices could rise substantially, putting renewed upside pressure on Canadian and global inflation.

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    Council members reviewed fina
    ncial conditions, noting that despite continued policy tightening by central banks, conditions had eased somewhat since October. This was considered to reflect a decline in risk premiums across asset classes because headline inflation had edged down from its peak and the perceived risk of a deep recession had decreased. The Can$/US$ exchange rate had been fairly stable at around 74 cents.

    Canadian economic developments and the outlook for inflation

    Governing Council reviewed recent domestic data alongside survey inputs, staff analysis and projections. Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.9 per cent in the third quarter, stronger than the bank had expected. Members noted that strength from commodity exports offset softer household spending, with outright declines in both consumption and housing activity. Still, data to date suggested that GDP growth in the fourth quarter was also likely to come in somewhat higher than the bank had previously projected. So, while the economy was certainly slowing, there was more excess demand than expected.

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    The labour market continued to show tightness. The December Labour Force Survey (LFS) reported surprisingly strong job gains. The past few months of LFS data, as well as a broader range of indicators, made it clear that the tightness in the labour market persisted. Governing Council viewed this as a symptom of an economy still in excess demand. Overall, Council concluded that wage momentum was plateauing in the range of four per cent to five per cent. Persistent wage growth in this range was not viewed as consistent with achieving the two per cent inflation target unless productivity increases to well above its historical trend.

    Consumer price index (CPI) inflation was 6.3 per cent in December, down from the peak of 8.1 per cent in the summer. Members agreed that momentum in inflation is turning a corner, with three-month annualized rates of inflation below the year-over-year rates for both total CPI inflation and, to a lesser extent, core measures of inflation.

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    Members acknowledged that much of the recent decline in headline inflation was due to lower gasoline prices, but they also viewed the decline in durable goods inflation as evidence that the effects of higher interest rates were spreading through the economy and slowing demand. Members also agreed that services inflation was likely to be persistent and acknowledged that food and shelter inflation remained particularly high.

    Governing Council then turned to the revised outlook for inflation. CPI inflation was projected to decline to three per cent in the middle of 2023, lower than projected in the October MPR. The decline largely reflected the fall in energy prices, weaker goods price inflation coming from slower demand, and supply chain improvements. Council was also comfortable with the forecast that inflation would decline further in 2024, reaching the two per cent target. They recognized that this would require services inflation to come down and that inflation expectations and growth in labour costs would need to moderate. Risks around this outlook were viewed as roughly balanced, but the upside risks continued to be of greater concern because inflation remained too high.

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    Considerations for monetary policy

    All Governing Council members acknowledged they were approaching this decision with a similar view: that the bank’s monetary policy to date had been forceful and that the full impact would be felt in quarters to come. The sectors of the economy most sensitive to interest rates had clearly responded to tighter monetary policy, and evidence was starting to appear that other parts of the economy were beginning to respond.

    Members viewed these as signs of progress toward restoring price stability and noted them in combination with some other key developments:

    Inflation in both Canada and globally was declining due to sizable decreases in energy prices and should decline further if energy prices stayed near current levels.

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    Global supply chain disruptions were resolving.

    Markets were increasingly perceiving that much worse outcomes—even higher inflation or severe economic contractions—were less likely.

    With these developments as a backdrop, Council members explored several assumptions in the bank’s projection.

    Members debated several reasons why consumption could be slower than projected. For one, many households with five-year terms on their mo
    rtgages would be renewing over the coming year or so. In many cases, they would be facing significantly higher monthly mortgage payments, and this could reduce other spending by more than expected. Higher interest rates would also encourage more savings. And members noted that consumer confidence measures had weakened, indicating households may put off major purchases.

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    At the same time, members also acknowledged that in Canada and in other countries, employment was strong and households had built up extra savings during the pandemic. These factors support consumption.

    With respect to the housing market, there was concern that the effects of tighter monetary policy could be larger than expected. This could arise if the decline in house prices were to accelerate. At the same time, Governing Council recognized that continued strong immigration and household formation would provide underlying support for the housing market. Expectations of future monetary policy easing could also spur buyers to re-enter the market.

    Members noted there could be a downside risk to the bank’s projection for business investment: due to the activity-sensitive nature of business investment, lower levels of economic activity could curtail investment plans. Conversely, with labour in short supply, businesses could seek to invest further to expand capacity.

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    On labour market tightness, Council debated the extent to which it would ease as effects of reopening fade, the economy slows down, and immigration adds to the labour supply over time. There is a case for labour market tightness to persist: rebalancing the labour market may take longer than usual given firms are still facing labour shortages and given the aging workforce is reducing the growth of labour supply.

    Members also discussed the risk of services inflation remaining sticky if labour costs stayed high and demand strong.

    Finally, while several factors were combining to bring overall inflation down, Council discussed the risk of it becoming stuck materially above the two per cent target. Persistence in supply chain challenges, services price inflation, wage growth and inflation expectations could all keep inflation above the target. A rebound in oil prices could also push inflation back up again.

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    The policy decision

    While Governing Council was acutely aware of ongoing uncertainty, they concluded that data since the October MPR had largely reinforced their confidence that inflation would come down through 2023.

    Members framed the decision along two dimensions:

    • whether to leave the policy rate where it was or to increase it by 25 basis points
    • whether to maintain similar forward-looking language as in the previous policy statement or to adjust it to signal a pause

    The case for leaving the policy rate at 4.25 per cent was that developments with respect to both the economy and inflation were beginning to move in the right direction and that policy had been forceful and just needed more time to do its work.

    The case for raising the rate by an additional 25 basis points was twofold. First, doing so reflected the fact that developments in the real economy since the December decision had been quite strong:

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    • Labour market data continued to indicate tightness.
    • Third quarter GDP growth was stronger than expected, and fourth quarter economic activity was also likely to be stronger than previously projected.

    In other words, data on both the labour market and economic activity suggested that there was more excess demand in the economy in the fourth quarter of 2022 than previously forecast.

    A second rationale for raising the rate by an additional 25 basis points related to the risk of inflation getting stuck somewhere above two per cent later in the projection. Putting in place some additional tightening now could help insure against that outcome.

    Members were in broad agreement that, going forward, it would be appropriate to pause any additional tightening to allow economic developments to unfold. The bank had been forceful to date in tightening monetary policy, and the full impact was still to come. In addition, there were enough “green shoots” of progress. Allowing time for further progress to occur would recognize the lags in the transmission of monetary policy and balance the risk of over- versus under-tightening.

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    Members discussed how to communicate this need to pause. They reflected on their previous communication in December, which had indicated Governing Council would consider whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further. That communication had also articulated three developments Council would be assessing:

    • how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand
    • how supply challenges are resolving
    • how inflation and inflation expectations are responding

    They agreed that the December communication conveyed more of a data-dependent, “decision-by-decision” stance about whether to raise the policy rate further. They debated whether that remained appropriate. Through further discussion, they drew a few conclusions:

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    • Council wanted to convey that the bar for additional rate increases was now higher. If the economy and inflation were to unfold broadly in line with the projection, they agreed they would probably not need to raise rates further.
    • Council also wanted to give a clear sense that they would need an accumulation of evidence to determine whether further rate increases would be required to return inflation to the 2 per cent target.
    • Members also felt it was important to be clear about the conditionality of any pause. Given inflation was still well above the target, Governing Council continued to be more concerned about upside risks. In its determination to return inflation to the 2 per cent target, Governing Council would be prepared to raise the policy rate further if these upside risks materialized.

    Governing Council reached a consensus to increase the policy rate by 25 basis points and adjust its communications to indicate a conditional pause on any further policy tightening. Members also discussed the bank’s quantitative tightening program. They agreed to continue the current policy of shrinking the balance sheet by allowing maturing bonds to roll off.

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  • \’A challenge for the Bank of Canada\’: What economists say about the blockbuster jobs report

    This section is

    by HSBC

    \"\"

    The majority of the gains were full-time in the private sector

    Published Feb 10, 2023  •  7 minute read

    8 Comments

    \"Canada
    Canada gained 150,000 jobs in January. Economists weigh in on what it means for the economy and the Bank of Canada. Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images

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    The Canadian jobs market posted another blockbuster result, gaining 150,000 positions in January, Statistics Canada said on Feb. 10, outpacing analysts’ estimates for an increase of 15,000.

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    The jobs report was “even more impressive,” said James Orlando, senior economist at TD Economics, because the “gains were concentrated in full-time jobs in the private sector.”

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    Of the gain, 121,000 were full-time positions and 28,900 were part-time. The unemployment rate held steady at five per cent and the participation rate rose to 65.7 per cent from 65 per cent in December, the national data agency said.

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    The economy has added over 800,000 positions since the start of the pandemic, Royal Bank of Canada said in its analysis of the jobs report, adding that “two-thirds of job gains were driven by prime-age workers” in the 25 to 54 age category.

    It’s the second month in a row the strength of the employment market has taken forecasters by surprise. The economy, in December reported a gain of 104,000 positions, blowing past forecasts for an increase of 5,000 additional positions, although, the  report was “heavily revised downward” by 33,000 positions, said Jay Zhao-Murray, an FX market analyst with Monex Canada, in an email, “and we may get a repeat of that scenario this month.”

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    At the time, economists said the strong December numbers would prompt the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates, which it did at its Jan. 27 meeting, hiking its benchmark lending rate to 4.5 per cent.

    Based on the latest jobs numbers, some economists say markets could start pricing in another rate hike. The Bank of Canada indicated last month that it would likely pause its hiking campaign if economic data over the next few months tracked along its expectations.

    Here’s what economists are saying about the jobs numbers, what they mean for a potential soft-landing for the economy and interest rates.

    James Orlando, TD Economics

    “It was a blowout report for the Canadian labour market. The 150,000 jobs gain is one thing, but the fact that gains were concentrated in full-time jobs in the private sector, alongside people working more hours, makes this an even more impressive report. Although the seasonal adjustment should be called into question, the sheer size of this print points to a further boost to consumer spending and overall GDP to start the year.

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    “Today’s report is sure to raise eyebrows at the Bank of Canada. Their conditional pause on further rate hikes is predicated on a slowing of economic growth and an easing in the labour market. The bank won’
    t adjust course after one report, but it will be closely watching to see if this trend of massive job gains continues.”

    Andrew Grantham, CIBC Economics

    “Another month, another blockbuster job print for the Canadian economy …. Unlike during the latter part of last year, the strong job figure was also accompanied by an increase in hours worked (+0.8 per cent) as sickness-related absenteeism was closer to seasonal norms, which is a positive for GDP and suggests that the economy certainly isn’t on the verge of recession.

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    “The Bank of Canada’s conditional pause on interest rates was likely done partly so that policymakers didn’t feel the need to respond to any single strong data print, no matter how strong, but rather assess how the economy is faring over the course of a few months. However, that won’t stop markets reacting to today’s strong data by pricing in a greater probability of further hikes, and pricing out rate cuts.”

    Stephen Brown, Capital Economics

    “The surge in employment and strong rise in hours worked in January suggest that GDP growth will be stronger than we anticipated this quarter. However, the decline in wage growth means that unexpected strength is unlikely to prompt the Bank of Canada to switch back to hiking mode.

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    “The 150,000 jump in employment was 10 times as large as the consensus estimate. While the gain was partly due to an unusually large 63,000 rise in the population last month, amid strong immigration, the labour force increased by an even larger 153,000, thanks to a 0.3 percentage-point rise in the participation rate.

    “Despite the bumper gain, the labour market data are unlikely to move the needle much for monetary policy, not least because wage growth declined to 4.5 per cent year over, from a downwardly revised 4.7 per cent — it was previously estimated at 5.2 per cent in December. Nevertheless, together with the 0.8 per cent month over month rise in hours worked last month, the data pour cold water on the idea that the economy is on the cusp of recession and suggest we need to revise up our forecast of a 1.5 per cent annualized decline in GDP this quarter.”

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    Douglas Porter, BMO Economics

    “Canadian employment soared 150,000 in January, the largest non-pandemic monthly rise on record and a loud echo of the rollicking U.S. jobs report a week ago. Even in percentage terms, the 0.75 per cent month over month gain is larger than anything seen in the 40 years before COVID.

    “Note that actual, or non-seasonally adjusted, employment fell by 125,000 in January — prior to the pandemic, a “normal” January would see a job loss of 250,000-to-300,000 in unadjusted terms. So, evidently, there simply were far, far fewer layoffs than in a normal year at the start of 2023. Instead of an actual hiring boom, what we instead saw last month was a layoff freeze, given how hard it is to find workers in the current environment. To be clear, this is not to dismiss the strength in the headline number; the data are seasonally adjusted for a reason. It’s more to explain what the underlying story may be in this complicated backdrop.

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    “Bottom Line: One always has to take care when reading a Canadian employment report — for example, the prior month’s huge gain was itself revised down (earlier) by more than 30,000 jobs. Still, even if there are some misgivings about the massive headline gain, the labour market is sending precisely zero signs of economic stress. For the Bank of Canada, the strong report must make them at least a tad nervous about their freshly-minted pause — we said the bar for any move would be very high, but the employment gain is pretty towering indeed. This is actually the last jobs report the Bank will see before it next decides in March, but their upcoming decisions will largely be determined by inflation, and the employment data may prove to be just loud noise, provided inflation continues to ebb.”

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    Charles St-Arnaud, Alberta Central

    “Today’s Labour Force Survey data suggest the labour market in Canada remains strong and resilient. The low unemployment rate continues to signal that the labour market remains very tight, something the Bank of Canada is closely monitoring. Moreover, the report also shows that wage growth, while slowing, remains robust, with average wages increasing by 4.2 per cent year over year.

    “A robust labour market is a challenge for the Bank of Canada. As we have explained on numerous occasions, the bank needs to slow growth and create some excess capacity in the economy to fight inflation. This will likely lead to a rise in the unemployment rate and job losses. With this in mind, continued strength and tightness in the labour market may not be a welcomed outcome for the Bank of Canada.

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    “The continued resilience of the labour market raises the odds that the bank will increase its policy rate at its next meeting on March 8. However, whether the bank hikes further depends on inflation, with the next release on Feb. 21, and the growth outlook. Nevertheless, it may require some signs that underlying inflationary pressures are not moderating as quickly as expected for the bank to hike at the March meeting.”

    Carrie Freestone, Royal Bank of Canada

    “Headline numbers conflict with recent Bank of Canada Survey data. The Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey indicated business plans to hire staff have fallen alongside wage growth. This conflicts with the January Labour Force Survey data. Indeed, year-over-year wage growth has fallen to 4.5 per cent year-over-year, but hiring continues at a rapid pace and the unemployment rate held steady at a near record low 5 per cent. Any signs of labour market cooling require a deeper dive beyond headline numbers.

    Advertisement 11

    Article content

    “Job postings are still up 50 per cent from pre-pandemic levels, but have come down in recent months. It remains our view that labour markets will not remain this tight over the near term. The delayed impact of the Bank of Canada’s 425 basis points of hikes are still gradually flowing through to household and business debt payments and will ultimately erode demand, pushing unemployment higher through the end of the year. Moreover, with record high participation and fewer unemployed Canadians to fill jobs, job creation is not sustainable at the current pace.

    “The Bank of Canada has indicated that rates will be held steady unless there is sufficient evidence that more restrictive monetary policy is needed. While the Bank of Canada will likely look past one strong jobs report, if additional reports prove to be stronger than expected, this would pose upside risk to the current terminal rate forecast of 4.5 per cent.”

    • Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com | Twitter: GSuhanic

    Comments

    Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications—you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.

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  • \’A challenge for the Bank of Canada\’: What economists say about the blockbuster jobs report

    This section is

    by HSBC

    \"\"

    The majority of the gains were full-time in the private sector

    Published Feb 10, 2023  •  7 minute read

    8 Comments

    \"Canada
    Canada gained 150,000 jobs in January. Economists weigh in on what it means for the economy and the Bank of Canada. Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images

    Article content

    The Canadian jobs market posted another blockbuster result, gaining 150,000 positions in January, Statistics Canada said on Feb. 10, outpacing analysts’ estimates for an increase of 15,000.

    Advertisement 2

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    The jobs report was “even more impressive,” said James Orlando, senior economist at TD Economics, because the “gains were concentrated in full-time jobs in the private sector.”

    \"Financial

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    Of the gain, 121,000 were full-time positions and 28,900 were part-time. The unemployment rate held steady at five per cent and the participation rate rose to 65.7 per cent from 65 per cent in December, the national data agency said.

    Article content

    The economy has added over 800,000 positions since the start of the pandemic, Royal Bank of Canada said in its analysis of the jobs report, adding that “two-thirds of job gains were driven by prime-age workers” in the 25 to 54 age category.

    It’s the second month in a row the strength of the employment market has taken forecasters by surprise. The economy, in December reported a gain of 104,000 positions, blowing past forecasts for an increase of 5,000 additional positions, although, the  report was “heavily revised downward” by 33,000 positions, said Jay Zhao-Murray, an FX market analyst with Monex Canada, in an email, “and we may get a repeat of that scenario this month.”

    Advertisement 3

    Article content

    At the time, economists said the strong December numbers would prompt the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates, which it did at its Jan. 27 meeting, hiking its benchmark lending rate to 4.5 per cent.

    Based on the latest jobs numbers, some economists say markets could start pricing in another rate hike. The Bank of Canada indicated last month that it would likely pause its hiking campaign if economic data over the next few months tracked along its expectations.

    Here’s what economists are saying about the jobs numbers, what they mean for a potential soft-landing for the economy and interest rates.

    James Orlando, TD Economics

    “It was a blowout report for the Canadian labour market. The 150,000 jobs gain is one thing, but the fact that gains were concentrated in full-time jobs in the private sector, alongside people working more hours, makes this an even more impressive report. Although the seasonal adjustment should be called into question, the sheer size of this print points to a further boost to consumer spending and overall GDP to start the year.

    Advertisement 4

    Article content

    “Today’s report is sure to raise eyebrows at the Bank of Canada. Their conditional pause on further rate hikes is predicated on a slowing of economic growth and an easing in the labour market. The bank won’
    t adjust course after one report, but it will be closely watching to see if this trend of massive job gains continues.”

    Andrew Grantham, CIBC Economics

    “Another month, another blockbuster job print for the Canadian economy …. Unlike during the latter part of last year, the strong job figure was also accompanied by an increase in hours worked (+0.8 per cent) as sickness-related absenteeism was closer to seasonal norms, which is a positive for GDP and suggests that the economy certainly isn’t on the verge of recession.

    Advertisement 5

    Article content

    “The Bank of Canada’s conditional pause on interest rates was likely done partly so that policymakers didn’t feel the need to respond to any single strong data print, no matter how strong, but rather assess how the economy is faring over the course of a few months. However, that won’t stop markets reacting to today’s strong data by pricing in a greater probability of further hikes, and pricing out rate cuts.”

    Stephen Brown, Capital Economics

    “The surge in employment and strong rise in hours worked in January suggest that GDP growth will be stronger than we anticipated this quarter. However, the decline in wage growth means that unexpected strength is unlikely to prompt the Bank of Canada to switch back to hiking mode.

    Advertisement 6

    Article content

    “The 150,000 jump in employment was 10 times as large as the consensus estimate. While the gain was partly due to an unusually large 63,000 rise in the population last month, amid strong immigration, the labour force increased by an even larger 153,000, thanks to a 0.3 percentage-point rise in the participation rate.

    “Despite the bumper gain, the labour market data are unlikely to move the needle much for monetary policy, not least because wage growth declined to 4.5 per cent year over, from a downwardly revised 4.7 per cent — it was previously estimated at 5.2 per cent in December. Nevertheless, together with the 0.8 per cent month over month rise in hours worked last month, the data pour cold water on the idea that the economy is on the cusp of recession and suggest we need to revise up our forecast of a 1.5 per cent annualized decline in GDP this quarter.”

    Advertisement 7

    Article content

    Douglas Porter, BMO Economics

    “Canadian employment soared 150,000 in January, the largest non-pandemic monthly rise on record and a loud echo of the rollicking U.S. jobs report a week ago. Even in percentage terms, the 0.75 per cent month over month gain is larger than anything seen in the 40 years before COVID.

    “Note that actual, or non-seasonally adjusted, employment fell by 125,000 in January — prior to the pandemic, a “normal” January would see a job loss of 250,000-to-300,000 in unadjusted terms. So, evidently, there simply were far, far fewer layoffs than in a normal year at the start of 2023. Instead of an actual hiring boom, what we instead saw last month was a layoff freeze, given how hard it is to find workers in the current environment. To be clear, this is not to dismiss the strength in the headline number; the data are seasonally adjusted for a reason. It’s more to explain what the underlying story may be in this complicated backdrop.

    Advertisement 8

    Article content

    “Bottom Line: One always has to take care when reading a Canadian employment report — for example, the prior month’s huge gain was itself revised down (earlier) by more than 30,000 jobs. Still, even if there are some misgivings about the massive headline gain, the labour market is sending precisely zero signs of economic stress. For the Bank of Canada, the strong report must make them at least a tad nervous about their freshly-minted pause — we said the bar for any move would be very high, but the employment gain is pretty towering indeed. This is actually the last jobs report the Bank will see before it next decides in March, but their upcoming decisions will largely be determined by inflation, and the employment data may prove to be just loud noise, provided inflation continues to ebb.”

    Advertisement 9

    Article content

    Charles St-Arnaud, Alberta Central

    “Today’s Labour Force Survey data suggest the labour market in Canada remains strong and resilient. The low unemployment rate continues to signal that the labour market remains very tight, something the Bank of Canada is closely monitoring. Moreover, the report also shows that wage growth, while slowing, remains robust, with average wages increasing by 4.2 per cent year over year.

    “A robust labour market is a challenge for the Bank of Canada. As we have explained on numerous occasions, the bank needs to slow growth and create some excess capacity in the economy to fight inflation. This will likely lead to a rise in the unemployment rate and job losses. With this in mind, continued strength and tightness in the labour market may not be a welcomed outcome for the Bank of Canada.

    Advertisement 10

    Article content

    “The continued resilience of the labour market raises the odds that the bank will increase its policy rate at its next meeting on March 8. However, whether the bank hikes further depends on inflation, with the next release on Feb. 21, and the growth outlook. Nevertheless, it may require some signs that underlying inflationary pressures are not moderating as quickly as expected for the bank to hike at the March meeting.”

    Carrie Freestone, Royal Bank of Canada

    “Headline numbers conflict with recent Bank of Canada Survey data. The Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey indicated business plans to hire staff have fallen alongside wage growth. This conflicts with the January Labour Force Survey data. Indeed, year-over-year wage growth has fallen to 4.5 per cent year-over-year, but hiring continues at a rapid pace and the unemployment rate held steady at a near record low 5 per cent. Any signs of labour market cooling require a deeper dive beyond headline numbers.

    Advertisement 11

    Article content

    “Job postings are still up 50 per cent from pre-pandemic levels, but have come down in recent months. It remains our view that labour markets will not remain this tight over the near term. The delayed impact of the Bank of Canada’s 425 basis points of hikes are still gradually flowing through to household and business debt payments and will ultimately erode demand, pushing unemployment higher through the end of the year. Moreover, with record high participation and fewer unemployed Canadians to fill jobs, job creation is not sustainable at the current pace.

    “The Bank of Canada has indicated that rates will be held steady unless there is sufficient evidence that more restrictive monetary policy is needed. While the Bank of Canada will likely look past one strong jobs report, if additional reports prove to be stronger than expected, this would pose upside risk to the current terminal rate forecast of 4.5 per cent.”

    • Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com | Twitter: GSuhanic

    Comments

    Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications—you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.

    Join the Conversation





    Source link

  • \’A challenge for the Bank of Canada\’: What economists say about the blockbuster jobs report

    This section is

    by HSBC

    \"\"

    The majority of the gains were full-time in the private sector

    Published Feb 10, 2023  •  7 minute read

    8 Comments

    \"Canada
    Canada gained 150,000 jobs in January. Economists weigh in on what it means for the economy and the Bank of Canada. Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images

    Article content

    The Canadian jobs market posted another blockbuster result, gaining 150,000 positions in January, Statistics Canada said on Feb. 10, outpacing analysts’ estimates for an increase of 15,000.

    Advertisement 2

    \"Financial

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    Article content

    The jobs report was “even more impressive,” said James Orlando, senior economist at TD Economics, because the “gains were concentrated in full-time jobs in the private sector.”

    \"Financial

    Financial Post Top Stories

    Sign up to receive the daily top stories from the Financial Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.

    By clicking on the sign up button you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You may unsubscribe any time by clicking on the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails or any newsletter. Postmedia Network Inc. | 365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300

    Article content

    Of the gain, 121,000 were full-time positions and 28,900 were part-time. The unemployment rate held steady at five per cent and the participation rate rose to 65.7 per cent from 65 per cent in December, the national data agency said.

    Article content

    The economy has added over 800,000 positions since the start of the pandemic, Royal Bank of Canada said in its analysis of the jobs report, adding that “two-thirds of job gains were driven by prime-age workers” in the 25 to 54 age category.

    It’s the second month in a row the strength of the employment market has taken forecasters by surprise. The economy, in December reported a gain of 104,000 positions, blowing past forecasts for an increase of 5,000 additional positions, although, the  report was “heavily revised downward” by 33,000 positions, said Jay Zhao-Murray, an FX market analyst with Monex Canada, in an email, “and we may get a repeat of that scenario this month.”

    Advertisement 3

    Article content

    At the time, economists said the strong December numbers would prompt the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates, which it did at its Jan. 27 meeting, hiking its benchmark lending rate to 4.5 per cent.

    Based on the latest jobs numbers, some economists say markets could start pricing in another rate hike. The Bank of Canada indicated last month that it would likely pause its hiking campaign if economic data over the next few months tracked along its expectations.

    Here’s what economists are saying about the jobs numbers, what they mean for a potential soft-landing for the economy and interest rates.

    James Orlando, TD Economics

    “It was a blowout report for the Canadian labour market. The 150,000 jobs gain is one thing, but the fact that gains were concentrated in full-time jobs in the private sector, alongside people working more hours, makes this an even more impressive report. Although the seasonal adjustment should be called into question, the sheer size of this print points to a further boost to consumer spending and overall GDP to start the year.

    Advertisement 4

    Article content

    “Today’s report is sure to raise eyebrows at the Bank of Canada. Their conditional pause on further rate hikes is predicated on a slowing of economic growth and an easing in the labour market. The bank won’
    t adjust course after one report, but it will be closely watching to see if this trend of massive job gains continues.”

    Andrew Grantham, CIBC Economics

    “Another month, another blockbuster job print for the Canadian economy …. Unlike during the latter part of last year, the strong job figure was also accompanied by an increase in hours worked (+0.8 per cent) as sickness-related absenteeism was closer to seasonal norms, which is a positive for GDP and suggests that the economy certainly isn’t on the verge of recession.

    Advertisement 5

    Article content

    “The Bank of Canada’s conditional pause on interest rates was likely done partly so that policymakers didn’t feel the need to respond to any single strong data print, no matter how strong, but rather assess how the economy is faring over the course of a few months. However, that won’t stop markets reacting to today’s strong data by pricing in a greater probability of further hikes, and pricing out rate cuts.”

    Stephen Brown, Capital Economics

    “The surge in employment and strong rise in hours worked in January suggest that GDP growth will be stronger than we anticipated this quarter. However, the decline in wage growth means that unexpected strength is unlikely to prompt the Bank of Canada to switch back to hiking mode.

    Advertisement 6

    Article content

    “The 150,000 jump in employment was 10 times as large as the consensus estimate. While the gain was partly due to an unusually large 63,000 rise in the population last month, amid strong immigration, the labour force increased by an even larger 153,000, thanks to a 0.3 percentage-point rise in the participation rate.

    “Despite the bumper gain, the labour market data are unlikely to move the needle much for monetary policy, not least because wage growth declined to 4.5 per cent year over, from a downwardly revised 4.7 per cent — it was previously estimated at 5.2 per cent in December. Nevertheless, together with the 0.8 per cent month over month rise in hours worked last month, the data pour cold water on the idea that the economy is on the cusp of recession and suggest we need to revise up our forecast of a 1.5 per cent annualized decline in GDP this quarter.”

    Advertisement 7

    Article content

    Douglas Porter, BMO Economics

    “Canadian employment soared 150,000 in January, the largest non-pandemic monthly rise on record and a loud echo of the rollicking U.S. jobs report a week ago. Even in percentage terms, the 0.75 per cent month over month gain is larger than anything seen in the 40 years before COVID.

    “Note that actual, or non-seasonally adjusted, employment fell by 125,000 in January — prior to the pandemic, a “normal” January would see a job loss of 250,000-to-300,000 in unadjusted terms. So, evidently, there simply were far, far fewer layoffs than in a normal year at the start of 2023. Instead of an actual hiring boom, what we instead saw last month was a layoff freeze, given how hard it is to find workers in the current environment. To be clear, this is not to dismiss the strength in the headline number; the data are seasonally adjusted for a reason. It’s more to explain what the underlying story may be in this complicated backdrop.

    Advertisement 8

    Article content

    “Bottom Line: One always has to take care when reading a Canadian employment report — for example, the prior month’s huge gain was itself revised down (earlier) by more than 30,000 jobs. Still, even if there are some misgivings about the massive headline gain, the labour market is sending precisely zero signs of economic stress. For the Bank of Canada, the strong report must make them at least a tad nervous about their freshly-minted pause — we said the bar for any move would be very high, but the employment gain is pretty towering indeed. This is actually the last jobs report the Bank will see before it next decides in March, but their upcoming decisions will largely be determined by inflation, and the employment data may prove to be just loud noise, provided inflation continues to ebb.”

    Advertisement 9

    Article content

    Charles St-Arnaud, Alberta Central

    “Today’s Labour Force Survey data suggest the labour market in Canada remains strong and resilient. The low unemployment rate continues to signal that the labour market remains very tight, something the Bank of Canada is closely monitoring. Moreover, the report also shows that wage growth, while slowing, remains robust, with average wages increasing by 4.2 per cent year over year.

    “A robust labour market is a challenge for the Bank of Canada. As we have explained on numerous occasions, the bank needs to slow growth and create some excess capacity in the economy to fight inflation. This will likely lead to a rise in the unemployment rate and job losses. With this in mind, continued strength and tightness in the labour market may not be a welcomed outcome for the Bank of Canada.

    Advertisement 10

    Article content

    “The continued resilience of the labour market raises the odds that the bank will increase its policy rate at its next meeting on March 8. However, whether the bank hikes further depends on inflation, with the next release on Feb. 21, and the growth outlook. Nevertheless, it may require some signs that underlying inflationary pressures are not moderating as quickly as expected for the bank to hike at the March meeting.”

    Carrie Freestone, Royal Bank of Canada

    “Headline numbers conflict with recent Bank of Canada Survey data. The Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey indicated business plans to hire staff have fallen alongside wage growth. This conflicts with the January Labour Force Survey data. Indeed, year-over-year wage growth has fallen to 4.5 per cent year-over-year, but hiring continues at a rapid pace and the unemployment rate held steady at a near record low 5 per cent. Any signs of labour market cooling require a deeper dive beyond headline numbers.

    Advertisement 11

    Article content

    “Job postings are still up 50 per cent from pre-pandemic levels, but have come down in recent months. It remains our view that labour markets will not remain this tight over the near term. The delayed impact of the Bank of Canada’s 425 basis points of hikes are still gradually flowing through to household and business debt payments and will ultimately erode demand, pushing unemployment higher through the end of the year. Moreover, with record high participation and fewer unemployed Canadians to fill jobs, job creation is not sustainable at the current pace.

    “The Bank of Canada has indicated that rates will be held steady unless there is sufficient evidence that more restrictive monetary policy is needed. While the Bank of Canada will likely look past one strong jobs report, if additional reports prove to be stronger than expected, this would pose upside risk to the current terminal rate forecast of 4.5 per cent.”

    • Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com | Twitter: GSuhanic

    Comments

    Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications—you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.

    Join the Conversation





    Source link

  • \’A challenge for the Bank of Canada\’: What economists say about the blockbuster jobs report

    This section is

    by HSBC

    \"\"

    The majority of the gains were full-time in the private sector

    Published Feb 10, 2023  •  7 minute read

    8 Comments

    \"Canada
    Canada gained 150,000 jobs in January. Economists weigh in on what it means for the economy and the Bank of Canada. Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images

    Article content

    The Canadian jobs market posted another blockbuster result, gaining 150,000 positions in January, Statistics Canada said on Feb. 10, outpacing analysts’ estimates for an increase of 15,000.

    Advertisement 2

    \"Financial

    REGISTER TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES

    Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.

    • Access articles from across Canada with one account
    • Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments
    • Enjoy additional articles per month
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    Article content

    The jobs report was “even more impressive,” said James Orlando, senior economist at TD Economics, because the “gains were concentrated in full-time jobs in the private sector.”

    \"Financial

    Financial Post Top Stories

    Sign up to receive the daily top stories from the Financial Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.

    By clicking on the sign up button you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You may unsubscribe any time by clicking on the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails or any newsletter. Postmedia Network Inc. | 365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300

    Article content

    Of the gain, 121,000 were full-time positions and 28,900 were part-time. The unemployment rate held steady at five per cent and the participation rate rose to 65.7 per cent from 65 per cent in December, the national data agency said.

    Article content

    The economy has added over 800,000 positions since the start of the pandemic, Royal Bank of Canada said in its analysis of the jobs report, adding that “two-thirds of job gains were driven by prime-age workers” in the 25 to 54 age category.

    It’s the second month in a row the strength of the employment market has taken forecasters by surprise. The economy, in December reported a gain of 104,000 positions, blowing past forecasts for an increase of 5,000 additional positions, although, the  report was “heavily revised downward” by 33,000 positions, said Jay Zhao-Murray, an FX market analyst with Monex Canada, in an email, “and we may get a repeat of that scenario this month.”

    Advertisement 3

    Article content

    At the time, economists said the strong December numbers would prompt the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates, which it did at its Jan. 27 meeting, hiking its benchmark lending rate to 4.5 per cent.

    Based on the latest jobs numbers, some economists say markets could start pricing in another rate hike. The Bank of Canada indicated last month that it would likely pause its hiking campaign if economic data over the next few months tracked along its expectations.

    Here’s what economists are saying about the jobs numbers, what they mean for a potential soft-landing for the economy and interest rates.

    James Orlando, TD Economics

    “It was a blowout report for the Canadian labour market. The 150,000 jobs gain is one thing, but the fact that gains were concentrated in full-time jobs in the private sector, alongside people working more hours, makes this an even more impressive report. Although the seasonal adjustment should be called into question, the sheer size of this print points to a further boost to consumer spending and overall GDP to start the year.

    Advertisement 4

    Article content

    “Today’s report is sure to raise eyebrows at the Bank of Canada. Their conditional pause on further rate hikes is predicated on a slowing of economic growth and an easing in the labour market. The bank won’
    t adjust course after one report, but it will be closely watching to see if this trend of massive job gains continues.”

    Andrew Grantham, CIBC Economics

    “Another month, another blockbuster job print for the Canadian economy …. Unlike during the latter part of last year, the strong job figure was also accompanied by an increase in hours worked (+0.8 per cent) as sickness-related absenteeism was closer to seasonal norms, which is a positive for GDP and suggests that the economy certainly isn’t on the verge of recession.

    Advertisement 5

    Article content

    “The Bank of Canada’s conditional pause on interest rates was likely done partly so that policymakers didn’t feel the need to respond to any single strong data print, no matter how strong, but rather assess how the economy is faring over the course of a few months. However, that won’t stop markets reacting to today’s strong data by pricing in a greater probability of further hikes, and pricing out rate cuts.”

    Stephen Brown, Capital Economics

    “The surge in employment and strong rise in hours worked in January suggest that GDP growth will be stronger than we anticipated this quarter. However, the decline in wage growth means that unexpected strength is unlikely to prompt the Bank of Canada to switch back to hiking mode.

    Advertisement 6

    Article content

    “The 150,000 jump in employment was 10 times as large as the consensus estimate. While the gain was partly due to an unusually large 63,000 rise in the population last month, amid strong immigration, the labour force increased by an even larger 153,000, thanks to a 0.3 percentage-point rise in the participation rate.

    “Despite the bumper gain, the labour market data are unlikely to move the needle much for monetary policy, not least because wage growth declined to 4.5 per cent year over, from a downwardly revised 4.7 per cent — it was previously estimated at 5.2 per cent in December. Nevertheless, together with the 0.8 per cent month over month rise in hours worked last month, the data pour cold water on the idea that the economy is on the cusp of recession and suggest we need to revise up our forecast of a 1.5 per cent annualized decline in GDP this quarter.”

    Advertisement 7

    Article content

    Douglas Porter, BMO Economics

    “Canadian employment soared 150,000 in January, the largest non-pandemic monthly rise on record and a loud echo of the rollicking U.S. jobs report a week ago. Even in percentage terms, the 0.75 per cent month over month gain is larger than anything seen in the 40 years before COVID.

    “Note that actual, or non-seasonally adjusted, employment fell by 125,000 in January — prior to the pandemic, a “normal” January would see a job loss of 250,000-to-300,000 in unadjusted terms. So, evidently, there simply were far, far fewer layoffs than in a normal year at the start of 2023. Instead of an actual hiring boom, what we instead saw last month was a layoff freeze, given how hard it is to find workers in the current environment. To be clear, this is not to dismiss the strength in the headline number; the data are seasonally adjusted for a reason. It’s more to explain what the underlying story may be in this complicated backdrop.

    Advertisement 8

    Article content

    “Bottom Line: One always has to take care when reading a Canadian employment report — for example, the prior month’s huge gain was itself revised down (earlier) by more than 30,000 jobs. Still, even if there are some misgivings about the massive headline gain, the labour market is sending precisely zero signs of economic stress. For the Bank of Canada, the strong report must make them at least a tad nervous about their freshly-minted pause — we said the bar for any move would be very high, but the employment gain is pretty towering indeed. This is actually the last jobs report the Bank will see before it next decides in March, but their upcoming decisions will largely be determined by inflation, and the employment data may prove to be just loud noise, provided inflation continues to ebb.”

    Advertisement 9

    Article content

    Charles St-Arnaud, Alberta Central

    “Today’s Labour Force Survey data suggest the labour market in Canada remains strong and resilient. The low unemployment rate continues to signal that the labour market remains very tight, something the Bank of Canada is closely monitoring. Moreover, the report also shows that wage growth, while slowing, remains robust, with average wages increasing by 4.2 per cent year over year.

    “A robust labour market is a challenge for the Bank of Canada. As we have explained on numerous occasions, the bank needs to slow growth and create some excess capacity in the economy to fight inflation. This will likely lead to a rise in the unemployment rate and job losses. With this in mind, continued strength and tightness in the labour market may not be a welcomed outcome for the Bank of Canada.

    Advertisement 10

    Article content

    “The continued resilience of the labour market raises the odds that the bank will increase its policy rate at its next meeting on March 8. However, whether the bank hikes further depends on inflation, with the next release on Feb. 21, and the growth outlook. Nevertheless, it may require some signs that underlying inflationary pressures are not moderating as quickly as expected for the bank to hike at the March meeting.”

    Carrie Freestone, Royal Bank of Canada

    “Headline numbers conflict with recent Bank of Canada Survey data. The Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey indicated business plans to hire staff have fallen alongside wage growth. This conflicts with the January Labour Force Survey data. Indeed, year-over-year wage growth has fallen to 4.5 per cent year-over-year, but hiring continues at a rapid pace and the unemployment rate held steady at a near record low 5 per cent. Any signs of labour market cooling require a deeper dive beyond headline numbers.

    Advertisement 11

    Article content

    “Job postings are still up 50 per cent from pre-pandemic levels, but have come down in recent months. It remains our view that labour markets will not remain this tight over the near term. The delayed impact of the Bank of Canada’s 425 basis points of hikes are still gradually flowing through to household and business debt payments and will ultimately erode demand, pushing unemployment higher through the end of the year. Moreover, with record high participation and fewer unemployed Canadians to fill jobs, job creation is not sustainable at the current pace.

    “The Bank of Canada has indicated that rates will be held steady unless there is sufficient evidence that more restrictive monetary policy is needed. While the Bank of Canada will likely look past one strong jobs report, if additional reports prove to be stronger than expected, this would pose upside risk to the current terminal rate forecast of 4.5 per cent.”

    • Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com | Twitter: GSuhanic

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  • Insurer Intact Financial is still betting on Canada for acquisitions and growth

    CEO امریکہ میں توسیع کا راستہ طے کر رہا ہے لیکن کینیڈا کو شمار نہیں کر رہا ہے۔

    \"مسی
    مسی ساگا، اونٹ میں مالیاتی اشارے برقرار ہیں۔ تصویر بذریعہ پیٹر جے تھامسن/نیشنل پوسٹ

    مضمون کا مواد

    انٹیکٹ فنانشل کارپوریشن کا دیرینہ چیف ایگزیکٹو چارلس برنڈامور جائیداد اور جانی نقصان کے بیمہ کنندہ کے لیے توسیع کا راستہ طے کر رہا ہے جس میں امریکہ شامل ہو سکتا ہے، لیکن اس کا اصرار ہے کہ وہ ابھی تک کینیڈا میں رن وے سے باہر نہیں ہے۔

    اشتہار 2

    \"فنانشل

    مزید مضامین کو غیر مقفل کرنے کے لیے رجسٹر کریں۔

    اپنے پڑھنے کے تجربے کو جاری رکھنے کے لیے ایک اکاؤنٹ بنائیں یا سائن ان کریں۔

    • ایک اکاؤنٹ کے ساتھ کینیڈا بھر سے مضامین تک رسائی حاصل کریں۔
    • اپنے خیالات کا اشتراک کریں اور تبصرے میں گفتگو میں شامل ہوں۔
    • ہر ماہ اضافی مضامین کا لطف اٹھائیں۔
    • اپنے پسندیدہ مصنفین سے ای میل اپ ڈیٹس حاصل کریں۔

    مضمون کا مواد

    \”میرے خیال میں کینیڈا سے باہر ترقی کے بڑے مواقع موجود ہیں جہاں ہماری کارکردگی بہتر ہے، لیکن کینیڈا وہ جگہ ہے جہاں ہم اپنا اگلا سرمایہ لگا سکتے ہیں اگر ہم کر سکتے ہیں،\” برندامور، جو صرف 15 سال سے زیادہ عرصے سے سی ای او رہے ہیں، نے ایک ٹی ڈی سیکیورٹیز کانفرنس میں کہا۔ اس ہفتے. \”وہاں واضح طور پر M&A (اور) نامیاتی ترقی کے نقطہ نظر سے ہے، اس میں کافی حد تک اضافہ ہے۔\”

    \"ایف

    سائن اپ بٹن پر کلک کر کے آپ پوسٹ میڈیا نیٹ ورک انکارپوریشن سے مذکورہ نیوز لیٹر وصول کرنے کی رضامندی دیتے ہیں۔ آپ ہماری ای میلز یا کسی بھی نیوز لیٹر کے نیچے دیے گئے ان سبسکرائب لنک پر کلک کر کے کسی بھی وقت ان سبسکرائب کر سکتے ہیں۔ پوسٹ میڈیا نیٹ ورک انکارپوریٹڈ | 365 بلور سٹریٹ ایسٹ، ٹورنٹو، اونٹاریو، M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300

    مضمون کا مواد

    وہ اس سوال کا جواب دے رہے تھے کہ کیا ٹورنٹو میں قائم کمپنی، جس کے حصص کی قیمت پچھلے پانچ سالوں میں دوگنی ہو کر $200 سے کم ہو گئی ہے، کو اس ملک میں ریگولیٹری، مسابقت یا سرمایہ کاری کی رکاوٹوں کے ذریعے واپس لیا گیا تھا۔

    انٹیکٹ کا آخری بڑا سودا برطانیہ میں تھا، جہاں کینیڈین کمپنی نے Tryg A/S کے ساتھ مل کر 2021 کے جون میں RSA انشورنس گروپ PLC کو 12.3 بلین ڈالر میں خریدا۔ Intact نے RSA کی کینیڈین، UK اور بین الاقوامی کارروائیوں کو جذب کیا، جبکہ Tryg نے سویڈن کو لے لیا، ناروے اور ڈنمارک۔

    اشتہار 3

    مضمون کا مواد

    ماریو مینڈونکا، TD کے ایکویٹی ریسرچ کے مینیجنگ ڈائریکٹر اور کانفرنس کے دوران برنڈامور میں سوالات کو لاب کرنے والے، نے نوٹ کیا کہ Intact نے 2017 میں خصوصی بیمہ کرنے والے OneBeacon Insurance Group کو 2.3 بلین ڈالر میں خریدنے کے بعد سے ریاستہائے متحدہ میں کوئی اہم حصول نہیں کیا تھا۔

    اس حصول نے کینیڈین فرم کو شمالی امریکہ میں خصوصی بیمہ فراہم کرنے والا ایک سرکردہ ادارہ بنا دیا، جس میں مشترکہ سالانہ پریمیم میں $2 بلین سے زیادہ اور چھوٹے سے درمیانے درجے کے کاروبار پر توجہ مرکوز کی گئی۔

    کینیڈا وہ جگہ ہے جہاں ہم اپنا اگلا ڈالر سرمایہ لگا سکتے ہیں اگر ہم کر سکتے ہیں۔

    چارلس برنڈامور

    برنڈامور نے کہا کہ انٹیکٹ بیلنس شیٹ کو خطرے میں ڈالنے سے پہلے تقسیم کے انتظامات کے ذریعے پانی کی جانچ کرنے کو ترجیح دیتا ہے۔

    \”پہلے، اپنی کارکردگی کو ثابت کریں، پھر سرمایہ کی تعیناتی کے بارے میں سوچیں،\” انہوں نے کہا۔ \”اس وقت، ہمیں لگتا ہے کہ یہ یا تو بہت مہنگا ہے یا خطرے کے نقطہ نظر سے بھوک درست نہیں ہے اور اس وجہ سے ہم (امریکہ میں) کنارے پر ہیں۔\”

    اشتہار 4

    مضمون کا مواد

    تاہم، انہوں نے نوٹ کیا کہ کمپنی کے ماضی کے انضمام اور حصول کی رفتار کو مخصوص اقتصادی چکروں سے منسلک نہیں کیا گیا ہے۔

    \”ہم نے جو کئی سودے کیے ہیں وہ یا تو قیادت پر مبنی تھے یا حکمت عملی پر مبنی تھے، چاہے سائیکل کی حالت کچھ بھی ہو،\” انہوں نے اسے \”طویل کھیل\” قرار دیتے ہوئے کہا۔

    \"2019
    2019 میں انٹیکٹ فنانشل کے چیف ایگزیکٹو چارلس برنڈامور۔ تصویر بذریعہ پال چیسن/ کینیڈین پریس

    اس دوران، Intact اپنے سسٹمز میں ڈیجیٹل اور مصنوعی ذہانت کے اجزاء شامل کرکے اپنے پلیٹ فارم پر پیسہ خرچ کر رہا ہے، جس کے بارے میں اس نے کہا کہ جب حاصل شدہ کاروبار فوری طور پر بہتر میٹرکس کے ساتھ مربوط ہوتے ہیں تو اس کی ادائیگی ہوتی ہے۔

    \”ہم نے ڈیجیٹل محاذ پر بڑی سرمایہ کاری کی ہے،\” برندامور نے کہا۔

    املاک اور جانی نقصان کے بیمہ کنندگان بشمول انٹیکٹ کو حال ہی میں ایک سخت ماحول کا سامنا کرنا پڑا ہے، چاہے وہ قدرتی آفات کی وجہ سے ہو یا مہنگائی سے چلنے والے اخراجات کی وجہ سے ذاتی آٹو انشورنس پر مارجن کمپریشن۔

    اشتہار 5

    مضمون کا مواد

    لیکن تصویر بہتر ہوتی دکھائی دے رہی ہے۔

    انٹیکٹ کے سال کے آخر کے نتائج کے بعد کلائنٹس کو ایک نوٹ میں، جو فروری کے اوائل میں رپورٹ ہوئے تھے، سی آئی بی سی کیپٹل مارکیٹس کے تجزیہ کار پال ہولڈن نے کہا کہ ذاتی آٹو انشورنس کے کاروبار پر پڑنے والے خطرات بشمول مہنگائی سے متعلق دعووں کی لاگت کو \”مبالغہ آمیز\” کیا گیا ہے۔ 2023 میں ترقی کے لیے تیار ہے۔

    ٹھوس ٹاپ لائن نمو کے علاوہ، تجزیہ کار نے کہا کہ وہ کمپنی کے نتائج کو آگے بڑھانے میں مدد کے لیے زیادہ سرمایہ کاری کی آمدنی اور تقسیم آمدنی میں اضافے کی توقع رکھتے ہیں۔

    تجزیہ کار نے فروری 8 کے نوٹ میں کہا کہ \”ہم M&A سے بھی الٹا امکان دیکھتے ہیں۔\”

    سال کے آخر میں کمائی کی رپورٹ کے بعد، نیشنل بینک کے مالیاتی تجزیہ کار جیمے گلوین نے کلائنٹس کے لیے ایک نوٹ میں کہا کہ Intact \”ایک پریمیم ویلیویشن کا حقدار ہے\”، کیونکہ اس سے RSA انشورنس گروپ کے آپریشنز کو کامیابی کے ساتھ مربوط کرنے کی امید ہے۔

    اشتہار 6

    مضمون کا مواد

    اس حصول نے کینیڈا میں انٹیکٹ کی قیادت کی پوزیشن کو بڑھایا، جو اس کی خاص بیمہ مصنوعات کی لائن پر بنایا گیا تھا، اور بین الاقوامی مہارت میں اضافہ ہوا، جس کی بنیاد یوکے میں ہے اور ایک ٹیم بھی موجود ہے۔

    Gloyn نے ​​کہا کہ Intact افراط زر کے دباؤ کو سنبھالنے کے لیے پوزیشن میں ہے، انتظامیہ کے ساتھ مہنگائی اور ڈرائیونگ پیٹرن کے جواب میں کینیڈا کے ذاتی آٹو پریمیم میں سنگل ہندسوں کی ترقی کی توقع ہے۔

    \"انٹیکٹ
    انٹیکٹ کو اس سال کینیڈا کے ذاتی آٹو پریمیم میں سنگل ہندسوں کی ترقی کی توقع ہے۔ تصویر بذریعہ سٹورٹ ڈرائیڈن/کیلگری سن/کیو ایم آئی ایجنسی

    انہوں نے اپنے 8 فروری کے نوٹ میں لکھا، \”اگرچہ افراط زر کے دباؤ کی وجہ سے ذاتی آٹو منافع کا خطرہ بڑھ گیا ہے، ہمیں یقین ہے کہ شرح میں اضافہ نقصان کی لاگت کے رجحانات کو آگے بڑھاتا رہے گا۔\”

    \”مجموعی طور پر، مسلسل سخت مارکیٹ کے حالات بھی اس امکان کو بڑھاتے ہیں کہ آئی ایف سی (انٹیکٹ) قریب کی مدت میں کمائی کی بہتر کارکردگی پیش کرے گا۔\”

    اشتہار 7

    مضمون کا مواد

    ڈی بی آر ایس مارننگ اسٹار نے جنوری میں ایک نوٹ شائع کیا جس میں کہا گیا تھا کہ کینیڈا کی جائیداد اور حادثاتی بیمہ کے شعبے کا نقطہ نظر \”مثبت کی طرف رجحان\” تھا۔

    \”مجموعی طور پر انڈسٹری کے لیے، ہم توقع کرتے ہیں کہ بیمہ کی قیمتوں میں اضافے اور افراط زر کے رجحانات کے نتیجے میں 2023 میں پریمیم کی شرح میں اضافی اضافہ ہو گا کیونکہ صنعت مضبوط انڈر رائٹنگ منافع کو برقرار رکھنے کی کوشش کرتی ہے،\” DBRS تجزیہ کاروں نادجا ڈریف اور مارکوس الواریز نے لکھا۔

    \”مجموعی طور پر منافع زیادہ سود کی آمدنی سے بھی فائدہ اٹھائے گا جس میں میچورنگ فکسڈ انکم سیکیورٹیز کو زیادہ پیداوار والے اثاثوں میں دوبارہ سرمایہ کاری کی جائے گی۔\”

    18 جنوری کے نوٹ میں کہا گیا ہے کہ جائیداد اور جانی نقصان کی انشورنس کی مانگ کو \”لچکدار\” رہنا چاہیے کیونکہ کچھ قسمیں لازمی ہیں جبکہ دیگر کو قیمتی احتیاطی اخراجات کے طور پر دیکھا جاتا ہے۔ تاہم، اعلی افراط زر اور آب و ہوا سے متعلق خطرات ایسے عوامل ہیں جو گلابی منظر کو متاثر کر سکتے ہیں، DBRS نے کہا۔

    اشتہار 8

    مضمون کا مواد

    برنڈامور نے کہا کہ ایک متوقع رجحان ہے جو ابھی تک میں پورا نہیں ہوا ہے۔ انشورنس سیکٹر: ڈیجیٹل رکاوٹ۔

    \”ہم برسوں سے خلل کی تیاری کر رہے ہیں۔ میں یہ نہیں کہہ سکتا کہ ہم نے اپنی جگہ میں بہت کامیاب خلل ڈالنے والے دیکھے ہیں،\” انہوں نے کہا۔

    \”میرے خیال میں بڑا رجحان، ڈسٹری بیوٹرز کے بروکرز کا استحکام رہا ہے اور ہم اس محاذ پر اگر سرکردہ اداکار نہیں تو (وہاں فعال) رہے ہیں۔ لیکن ہم خلا میں خلل کے لیے تیار رہتے ہیں اور ہم نے اسی کے مطابق سرمایہ کاری کی ہے۔

    • ای میل: bshecter@nationalpost.com | ٹویٹر: بیٹ پوسٹ

    تبصرے

    پوسٹ میڈیا بحث کے لیے ایک جاندار لیکن سول فورم کو برقرار رکھنے کے لیے پرعزم ہے اور تمام قارئین کو ہمارے مضامین پر اپنے خیالات کا اظہار کرنے کی ترغیب دیتا ہے۔ تبصرے سائٹ پر ظاہر ہونے سے پہلے اعتدال میں ایک گھنٹہ لگ سکتے ہیں۔ ہم آپ سے درخواست کرتے ہیں کہ آپ اپنے تبصروں کو متعلقہ اور احترام کے ساتھ رکھیں۔ ہم نے ای میل اطلاعات کو فعال کر دیا ہے — اب آپ کو ایک ای میل موصول ہو گی اگر آپ کو اپنے تبصرے کا جواب موصول ہوتا ہے، آپ کے تبصرے کے سلسلے میں اپ ڈیٹ ہے یا اگر آپ کسی صارف کے تبصروں کی پیروی کرتے ہیں۔ ہماری وزٹ کریں۔ کمیونٹی گائیڈ لائنز مزید معلومات اور تفصیلات کے لیے اپنے کو ایڈجسٹ کرنے کا طریقہ ای میل کی ترتیبات.

    گفتگو میں شامل ہوں۔

    متعلقہ کہانیاں

    3. اشتہار 1

    4. بینک آف کینیڈا کا کہنا ہے کہ شرح سود پر اس کا راستہ دوسرے مرکزی بینکوں سے ہٹ سکتا ہے۔

      اسٹیو شیرر اور ڈیل سمتھ اوٹاوا کی طرف سے – بینک آف کینیڈا افراط زر کو ہدف پر واپس لانے کے لیے پرعزم ہے اور ایسا کرے گا چاہے اس کی پالیسی ترتیب دینے کا راستہ دوسرے ممالک کے مرکزی بینکوں سے ہٹ جائے، ڈپٹی گورنر پال بیوڈری نے جمعرات کو کہا۔

      \"تصویر

    5. کینیڈین جنرل انویسٹمنٹ، لمیٹڈ نے کامن شیئرز پر ڈیویڈنڈ کا اعلان کیا۔

      ٹورنٹو، کینیڈا، فروری 16، 2023 (گلوب نیوز وائر) — کینیڈین جنرل انویسٹمنٹس، لمیٹڈ (\”CGI\” یا \”The Company\”) نے 15 مارچ 2023 کو عام شیئر ہولڈرز کے لیے قابل ادائیگی $0.24 فی شیئر کے سہ ماہی ڈیویڈنڈ کا اعلان کیا ہے۔ 28 فروری 2023 کو کاروبار کا اختتام (\”ڈیویڈنڈ\”)۔ اس ڈیویڈنڈ کو انکم ٹیکس ایکٹ (کینیڈا) کے مقاصد کے لیے ایک \”اہل ڈیویڈنڈ\” کے طور پر نامزد کیا گیا ہے۔

      \"تصویر

    6. جنوری میں امریکی درآمدی قیمتوں میں کمی؛ دو سالوں میں سب سے چھوٹا سالانہ اضافہ

      واشنگٹن — توانائی کی مصنوعات کی لاگت میں کمی کے درمیان جنوری میں امریکی درآمدی قیمتوں میں مسلسل ساتویں مہینے کمی واقع ہوئی، جس کے نتیجے میں درآمدی افراط زر میں دو سالوں میں سب سے کم سالانہ اضافہ ہوا۔

      \"تصویر





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