The recent resignations of two prominent female world leaders – Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland and Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand – have raised questions about the additional pressures on female politicians and whether enough is being done to remove the hurdles they face. Women in politics face additional scrutiny and challenges, such as the pressure to balance family life with their political career, and are often subject to sexist attacks and misogyny. Canadian politicians and political observers have noted the problem of treating women leaders with respect in the Canadian context. Women like Catherine McKenna, Chrystia Freeland, Laurel Collins, and Karen Vecchio have all faced personal attacks, yet continue to strive for positive change and equality. To better support women in politics, Canada must continue to remove barriers and lift up female leaders.
Canada’s spy service warns that adversaries will turn to espionage and foreign interference tactics to target the country’s increasingly important artificial-intelligence sector.
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service says in a newly released analytical brief that countries including China and Russia can be expected to “pursue Canada’s AI through all available vectors” _ from state-sponsored investment to the use of covert operatives.
The analysis by the spy agency’s intelligence assessments branch, marked CSIS Eyes Only, was completed in July 2021 but only recently released to The Canadian Press in response to an access-to-information request filed in October of that year.
It is the latest signal from the intelligence community that Canada’s technological innovation and resulting economic advancement are vulnerable to foreign forces out to co-opt or pilfer valuable research.
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CSIS says emerging artificial intelligence capabilities and machine-learning tools are seen as key to developing ways to reduce plastic in the oceans, find a vaccine to treat the next looming pandemic, stem emissions that cause climate change and find safe navigation methods for self-driving cars.
The analysis notes artificial intelligence is a priority for Canada, considered central to Ottawa’s domestic innovation and prosperity goals.
“However, many other nations, including hostile state actors, have established their own national Al strategies and goals,” the brief says. “Some of these countries, particularly China and Russia, will resort to espionage and foreign-influenced activity to advance their national interests, at Canada’s expense.”
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As a result, artificial intelligence has been reflected in the federal government’s intelligence priorities for several years, CSIS says.
It finds Canada faces two main types of threats related to artificial intelligence.
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The first entails espionage and foreign interference in attempts to gain access to proprietary Al technology and know-how via trade (such as exports and reverse engineering), state-sponsored foreign investment, joint ventures (including transfer of technology), cyberespionage, intelligence operatives, insider threats, talent spotting and recruitment.
“Much of those efforts are aimed at Canada’s academia and vulnerable startups, which are responsible for the majority of our Al innovation but which also represent a permissive espionage environment.”
The second threat involves safety and security risks to individual Canadians and the country’s Armed Forces when adversaries obtain and use AI capabilities for intelligence or military purposes.
Aaron Shull, managing director and general counsel at the Centre for International Governance Innovation in Waterloo, Ont., said he agrees with CSIS’s assessment, but would go even further.
Shull cited other foreign threats in this realm, including AI-enabled cyberattacks that swiftly find gaps in computer code, use of facial recognition and surveillance by authoritarian regimes, automated bots that spread disinformation in cyberspace and dependence on international supply chains that are partly controlled by adversaries.
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“I think we need a full-scale review of our national security and intelligence capabilities and services, our legislative structures, and take a more strategic view in terms of where we want the country to be 20 years from now,” Shull said in an interview.
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Canada could then make the needed investments and legislative changes to get there, he said.
“Other countries have their elbows up, and they’re trying to take what’s ours.”
CSIS says the importance of protecting Canadian artificial intelligence and the Big Data underpinning it goes beyond simply protecting the privacy of citizens, and involves “securing the future of our nation against the actions of hostile state actors with the intent to leverage their capabilities against us.”
The brief stresses the importance of Big Data to artificial intelligence, saying the more data a country possesses, the more it can be fed into that country’s Al systems, accelerating their capabilities, making better decisions faster and ensuring a leg-up on the competition.
“This will determine the victor in the modern world,” the brief says.
“All nations will find themselves on a grid ranging from ignorance to control, based on how much data they have and how fast they can process it.”
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The West faces “the threat of growing authoritarian dominance of the internet” by Beijing, given the high number of internet users in China and a government focused on gaining complete and centralized collection and retention of data, CSIS says.
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“Moreover, China houses acres of data centres that store data from around the world, obtained both licitly and illicitly. This makes the data that China possesses valuable in both quantity and variety,” the brief adds.
“One can confidently say this gives China an advantage in the Al industry, and the decisions that follow.”
Canadian bank stocks have been riding a wave of investor optimism so far this year, but analysts say the first-quarter results that start arriving later this week will be a reminder of the mixed economic picture ahead.
On the positive side are the signs of easing inflation and job reports that keep surprising to the upside; on the other side is the growing amount of money banks are having to set aside for the expected slowdown ahead.
Investor concerns about capital requirements are starting to edge into the question of how well banks are profiting off higher interest rates, said Scotiabank analyst Meny Grauman, which has been the main focus in recent quarters.
“There is no doubt that the market’s almost singular focus on margins has already begun to weaken as capital concerns have taken some of that spotlight away,” he said in a note.
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“A more challenging capital and regulatory environment for banks … is something that we are very concerned about.”
The higher capital requirements come after the banking regulator increased the amount of capital that banks have to set aside, while the two taxation measures the federal government introduced in last year’s budget will also be reflected in the results.
Banks had until Feb. 1 to get their capital ratio to the new level of 11.5 per cent set by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, which raised it by half a percentage point over concerns of higher risk from high household debt and rising interest rates.
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With the economy looking strong despite a wave of interest rate hikes, concerns the Bank of Canada won’t be able to lower rates any time soon could add to the risks. The regulator could also raise the rate further, leading all of Canada’s big banks to target a capital ratio of 12 per cent, said Grauman, which is putting strains on the amount of capital available for other uses such as share buybacks.
“Given the upward pressure on (bank capital) ratios, share buybacks are about as fashionable as top hats,” said Grauman.
Along with higher capital requirements, banks are having to increase provisions for credit losses, though they are still rising to more historic norms from unusually low levels.
“With the possibility of a recession still likely on the horizon, we anticipate the credit normalization will continue, underscored by higher non-performing loan provisions,” said Barclays analyst John Aiken in a note.
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While banks are having to prepare for the potential fallout from higher central bank interest rates, they also still stand to benefit as their net interest margins improve as overall loan activity is still going strong, noted Aiken.
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“Despite the slowdown in Canada’s housing market, for now, overall loan growth continues to hold steady. On the capital markets front, investment banking league table data is showcasing a relatively positive quarter.”
The positive indicators, and easing fears, have helped push up shares of the Big Six banks by 10.7 per cent as of Feb. 16, compared with 7.2 per cent for the TSX Composite Index as a whole, noted Canaccord Genuity analyst Scott Chan.
The share growth however came after banks relatively underperformed in 2022, while he said that soft capital markets and lowering credit expectations led him to decrease his earnings expectations for the quarter.
The potential need for elevated rates to stick around longer to get the inflation job done is also a rising concern, he said.
“Recent discussion of ‘higher rates for longer’ in Canada and the U.S. adds to potential credit concerns,” he said in a note.
CIBC kicks off the earnings season Friday, while BMO and Scotiabank report Feb. 28 and RBC, TD and National Bank release results March 1.
Yuliia Kleban remembers waking up to a message from her manager on Feb. 24, 2022, telling her Russia had started invading her country.
A few minutes later, Kleban heard air-raid sirens go off in Lviv, the Ukrainian city where she used to live.
“It was a hard day,” she said in a recent interview. “I started packing an emergency backpack. I started checking whether I can go in a walking distance to some shelter.”
Kleban is among the more than 150,000 Ukrainians who made their way to Canada under a special program announced after the conflict began.
As the war enters a second year, many of those newcomers are assessing whether they should focus on establishing a life in Canada, hope to return to Ukraine one day, or move to another country entirely.
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For Kleban, Canada holds the most appeal right now.
“For my future and for my family … for my future kids, it is better to be in a safer country,” she said. “Because in Ukraine we will always end up having a neighbour to the east that wants Ukrainians not to exist in this world.”
The 37-year-old said she decided to apply to come to Canada to stay with extended family in Barrie, Ont., when Ottawa announced its special visa program for Ukrainians last March.
Yuliia Kleban, from Ukraine, poses for a photograph near her work in Toronto on Wednesday, February 8, 2023. Kleban along with other Ukrainian refugees are living in Canada as the first anniversary of the Russian war nears.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
She spent about two months in the Czech Republic and four months in the United kingdom waiting for her Canadian visa before arriving in September. Her 40-year-old husband couldn’t accompany her because of Ukraine’s general mobilization law that bars men aged 18 to 60 from leaving the country.
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Kleban, who was the director of an IT and business analytics program at the Ukrainian Catholic University, said she moved to Toronto about two months ago to work as project manager for a program that helps Ukrainian newcomers find jobs.
While she feels safe in Canada, she worries about loved ones in Ukraine.
“Everybody is very supportive and tries to use empathy as much as they can to understand the circumstances for Ukrainians now, the war that is continuing still.”
Ihor Michalchyshyn, the executive director of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress _ a non-profit umbrella organization of Ukrainian Canadian organizations _ said Ukrainian newcomers are trying to figure out what path might work best for them in the future.
“People are looking to understand their options,” he said.
“As people fled a year ago, they thought they would be able to go back in a couple of weeks and then it turned into a couple of months and now it’s a year, right? And so I think none of us know.”
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Michalchyshyn said Ukrainians in Canada will be gathering for vigils, marches and demonstrations on Friday evening to mark the first anniversary of the war.
The war has had a huge effect on the Ukrainian Canadian community as many of its members, including those who have been in Canada for decades, still have family in Ukraine, he said.
“Most of us have some family connections, direct family connections or have been to Ukraine and understand it, been there, seen it, touched it,” Michalchyshyn said. “It’s shocking to see … the tremendous violence by Russian invading forces on civilians.”
Almost 1.4 million people, or four per cent of Canada’s population, said at least one of their ethnic origins is Ukrainian in the 2016 census.
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Ukrainian Canadians have donated more than $50 million to help people in Ukraine, Michalchyshyn said, and have also worked hard to help settle Ukrainian newcomers who have fled the war.
“We’re seeing more and more people who are arriving. They don’t know anybody, they don’t know anything about Canada,” he said.
“It’s very difficult to find child care in Canada for everybody. It’s very difficult to find affordable housing for everybody in Canada, so they are facing those same challenges as well.”
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The federal government has offered a temporary visa for Ukrainians fleeing the war and a three-year work permit, along with one-time payment of $3,000 per adult and $1,500 per child and a two-week hotel stay for those who need it.
Immigration Department spokesman Stuart Isherwood said Ottawa is working closely with provinces, territories and municipalities to support Ukrainian newcomers.
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Ukrainians arriving under the temporary visa, as well as Ukrainian temporary residents who were in Canada when the war broke out, have access to settlement services typically only available to permanent residents, Isherwood said. Ottawa also launched an online portal for Canadian businesses to offer high-priority goods and services to support Ukrainians and organizations providing aid in Canada, he said.
“We will also continue working with settlement organizations and (non-governmental organizations) across the country to support Ukrainians and their family members before, during and after their arrival in Canada,” he said.
“(The Immigration Department) is continuing to assess how our immigration programs can best support Ukrainian nationals now and in the future, including potential new pathways to permanent residence.”