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Thread: Turkey’s $50-billion jet program in question

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  1. #1
    Senior Member Felix's Avatar
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    Turkey’s $50-billion jet program in question

    Turkey’s $50-billion jet program in question
    Burak BEKDİL
    Turkey must spend nearly $50 billion if it goes ahead with its plans to build and buy 200 locally built fighter jets and acquire 100 more F-35s from an US arms maker. And that amount doesn’t even include the cost of engines for the Turkish fighter


    Three F-35 Joint Strike Fighters (rear to front) AF-2, AF-3 and AF-4, can be seen flying. In additon to 200 fighter jets it eyes to build, Turkey plans to buy 100 F-35s, which are open to possible US influence. REUTERS photo
    Three F-35 Joint Strike Fighters (rear to front) AF-2, AF-3 and AF-4, can be seen flying. In additon to 200 fighter jets it eyes to build, Turkey plans to buy 100 F-35s, which are open to possible US influence. REUTERS photo
    When Ankara plans to build its own weapon systems or just buy them off-the-shelf, it plans big and no one seems to be worried. But the Turkish ambitions to build a “made-in-Turkey” fighter aircraft and buy scores of the new generation, multinational combat jet F-35 may go beyond Turkey’s financing capacity.

    Defense industry officials estimate that building eight prototypes for what will become the Turkish national fighter would cost Ankara over $10 billion. “Any figure in the range of $11 billion to $13 billion would be realistic,” a senior official familiar with the program said.

    His guess for the final Turkish order if the entire program succeeded was nearly 200 aircraft. “We target $100 million per aircraft,” he said. “I think 200 is a realistic figure given our aging fleet of aircraft that will phase out in the decades ahead.”

    That means Turkey will have to spend $31 billion to $33 billion for the Turkish fighter it hopes to design, develop and manufacture. But independent analysts say this may be an over-optimistic calculation.

    “We know that Turkey’s plans do not include developing an engine for the Turkish fighter. Moreover, I think, $100 million per aircraft is too optimistic given Turkey’s technological constraints, its high-cost industry and the fact that a newcomer [to the fighter industry] like Turkey will always suffer setbacks and trials and errors during the entire process.”

    Turkey has been in talks with Sweden’s Saab for pre-conceptual design work for the country’s first national fighter jet. Saab is the maker of the JAS 39 Gripen, a lightweight single-engine multirole fighter. It was designed to replace the Saab 35 Draken and 37 Viggen in the Swedish Air Force (Flygvapnet). The Gripen is powered by the Volvo-Flygmotor RM12 engine, a derivative of the General Electric F404, and has a top speed of Mach 2.

    100 more from US

    Turkey hopes that under its fighter jet program, dubbed the TF-X, it can fly the Turkish fighter by 2023, the centennial of the republic. Turkey’s aerospace powerhouse, TAI, has been working on three different designs, and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected to decide on whether to go ahead with the plan at a defense industry committee meeting later this year.

    Meanwhile, Turkey, whose present fighter fleet is made up of U.S.-made aircraft, also plans to buy the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, a next-generation, multinational program also led by the United States.

    Most of Turkey’s fleet of F-16 fighters, being modernized by Lockheed Martin, and the planned future F-35s are open to U.S. technological influence. Only its older F-4 aircraft, modernized by Israel, and its oldest F-16s, being modernized by Turkey itself, are free from this influence. But these older aircraft are expected to be decommissioned around 2020.

    Turkey’s defense procurement officials have said Ankara intends to buy around 100 F-35s. Defense analysts estimate the cost of the entire JSF program to Turkey to be around $16 billion, bringing Turkey’s fighter budget up to $50 billion together with the TF-X.
    July/30/2013

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tur...&NewsCatID=483

  2. #2
    Elite Member Sinan's Avatar
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    Re: Turkey’s $50-billion jet program in question

    This a post of my friend with a little correction. He has a great point.

    kind of interesting article if designing, developing and manufacturing our own figther will cost us $31 billion to $33 billion??????? by following the logic and the numbers given in the article lets have a look to the other option....and there is only one option since co-production of a fighter with south korea was faild. our ''the only option'' is buying 200 figthers since we have to replace our aging fleet...then the question is who might be the candidatas;

    1-some more F-35,
    2-eurofigher or rafale
    3- a mixture of 1 and 2
    4- highly unlikly but a russian 4,5 which has seemingly a lower price tag but eventuly costing you an amount just a little bit lower than a eurofigher or rafale

    -buying 200 eurofigher or rafale....around 120 mil each... total €24 bil which is roughly $31 bil.

    -a mixture some more F-35 and eurofigher or rafale... again most probably some where around $31 bil or even more.


    I am not telling anything about TF-X project. just economically speaking . There are three facts; we have to to replace our aging fleet, buying 200 fighters will cost around $31 bil and the development and the final deliveries of TF-X will take more than 2 decades.

    so my point is if someone assumes as done by the article that Turkey will have to spend $31 billion to $33 billion for the Turkish fighter, given the fact that buying 200 figther will almost the same amount and renders TF-X project economically unfeasible or in question is a weak argument and it is funny........

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    Elite Member T-123456's Avatar
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    Re: Turkey’s $50-billion jet program in question

    Rolls-Royce Aims to Build Comprehensive Range of Activities in Turkey

    Mr. Tom Bell, President of Rolls-Royce Defence assessed its activities in Turkey performed over the years, approaches to FX, TX and National Helicopter programmes and collaboration of Turkish Defence Industries for Defence Turkey Readers
    Defence Turkey: RR has a history as supplier to Turkish Armed Forces, could you please inform us about your activities in Turkey performed over the years?
    Rolls-Royce engines have been powering aircraft of the Turkish Armed Forces for many decades, dating back to Spitfires that were operating in the 1940s. Our current fleet of engines in Turkey powers transport aircraft - such as the C-130 and the Transall - and numerous helicopters and is poised to expand as two major programmes enter service. The Turkish Air Force has just accepted its first A400M transport aircraft powered by the TP400 engine, in which Rolls-Royce is a major partner. Meanwhile, deliveries of the T129 ATAK helicopter, which we also power through a joint venture with the CTS800 engine, have also commenced recently. We are now working hard to ensure we have an effective and sustainable support system in place for each of these programmes and to continue to support the Turkish Air Force as it continues its equipment modernisation programme.
    Defence Turkey: As it is well known that Turkey has new indigenous programs focused on air platforms such as FX, TX and National Helicopter programs. Could you please inform us about your approach to these programs?
    Turkey’s aspirations for indigenous defence capability make this an exciting market for Rolls-Royce which brings with it a rich history of partnership on development programmes. We are able to offer propulsion solutions that deliver capability and technology transfer opportunities for Training, Combat aircraft and Helicopter programmes. Rolls-Royce would be honoured to play a supporting role in the further development of Turkey’s aerospace capabilities. We have engaged with the relevant government and industrial bodies and to offer our full support during the study, development, production and support phases for each project. As a company with a strong global reach, we’re also able to offer assistance at the appropriate time to the export sales of any Turkish national program in which we participate.
    Defence Turkey: Could you please inform us about your approach to National Helicopter Programme?

    We recognise that Turkish government and industry’s aim is to build on the success of the ATAK program by developing the National Helicopter. Rolls-Royce and its partners have worked with SSM and TAI to develop a propulsion offer which matches this philosophy whilst also meeting industrial participation and development objectives at an affordable cost. We have been very impressed with the collaborative approach taken by all Turkish participants and are sure this has produced an improved result. The National Helicopter Programme is a priority for Rolls-Royce and we await the decision on a propulsion partner for this program which now lies with our Turkish customers.
    Defence Turkey: Could you please provide us some information about the other projects that Rolls-Royce is interested in?
    Turkey is a key partner for Rolls-Royce as a customer, the home of a number of our critical suppliers and the site of potential future innovation centres. In addition to the FX, TX and National Helicopter programs, we have built a good dialogue with SSM and Turkish industry about future operational and industrial needs. Our aim will be to consistently provide our customers with the very best propulsion options for their future programs. With ATAK and A400M now beginning to enter service Rolls-Royce’s objective will be to deliver the very best level of in service support for these platforms to the Turkish armed forces. It may be that this experience will provide the opportunity to discuss the modernisation of support for the in-service fleet of Rolls-Royce engines as well. We are working with the Turkish aero engine supply chain to build on its already substantial contribution to Rolls-Royce’s global output and would expect this to grow significantly and consistently in future. Finally we are in dialogue with Turkish universities, research centres and appropriate government departments to find the right location for a Turkish/Rolls-Royce innovation centre, one option being explored is for an Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre (AMRC) to be co-located with a leading university. This centre would develop unique production technologies that can be exploited by Turkish industry.
    Defence Turkey: Logistics Services became one of the priority targets of Turkey; RR offers a comprehensive suite of services to ensure its customers all enjoy the benefit of renewed engine life and enhanced performance for years to come. Therefore could be any cooperation considered in this field?
    Services account for approximately half of our business at Rolls-Royce and we apply the same levels of innovation and technology to supporting our customers as we do to developing new engines. We are in active discussions with the Turkish military, government official and industry bodies on how tailored support packages can lead to cost effect increases in capability for the Turkish Armed Forces. Around the world our MissionCare support has enabled customers to increase the availability of their engine fleets while also reducing the cost of operation and we believe that this can produce similar benefits in Turkey through partnership with military operators and Turkish industry.
    Defence Turkey: What are your strategies and plans regarding cooperation, joint production, R&D activities in Turkey to strengthen collaboration with the Turkish Authorities, Defence Industry and Universities?
    We have a good relationship with SSM in the Defence field with the intention of assuring that our industrial co-operation planning is aligned with Turkish national policy. Today Turkish industry is already an important partner for the CTS800 engine that powers the A129 ATAK helicopter and the new TP400 European advanced turbo shaft engine. This existing cooperation already covers design and development as well as production. Our aim is to grow our partnership focussed on Turkish national technology development in the fields of research, development, production and support.
    We recently signed an MoU with Aselsan in the presence of Dr Ismail Demir to develop cooperation in the field of engine control and monitoring systems.
    Rolls-Royce has a proven track record of partnership with industry around the world and with academia, through the development of our global network of University Technology Centres.
    Defence Turkey: Would you like to add something and give a message to our readers?
    As I mentioned earlier, these are exciting times for the Turkish aerospace industry which is a growing force in the world market. Aspirations are based on firm national fundamentals including a commitment to forming strong long-term partnerships with leading global companies. This approach matches perfectly with the Rolls-Royce strategy. We would like to build on our comprehensive range of activities in Turkey; participating in the modernisation of support to existing fleets, preparing for the entry into service of new equipment, working with our partners to ensure the efficient delivery of advanced production programs and participating in the development of future projects.
    http://www.defenceturkey.com/?p=article&i=1637

    This means,
    indigenous helicopters engine-check
    FX, TX programs engine-check
    Very good news!

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